Everton vs. Arsenal Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips

Last Updated on February 23, 2026 by author

A statistical supercomputer gives Arsenal a 60% chance to extend their unbeaten streak against an Everton side grappling with key absences.

The Hill Dickinson Stadium in Liverpool is set for a heavyweight Premier League clash this Saturday evening, as table-topping Arsenal travel to face an Everton side looking to solidify their own top-half ambitions. For Mikel Arteta’s Gunners, this match represents more than just three points; it’s an opportunity to guarantee top spot at Christmas for the third time in four seasons. Yet, history and recent form whisper a note of caution: Arsenal have won just one of their last seven league visits to Everton.

This encounter is layered with compelling narratives. It pits Arteta against his former mentor, David Moyes, under whom he played for six years at Everton. It also features a Belgian forward, Leandro Trossard, who seems to have a particular liking for scoring against the Toffees. With both teams navigating significant injury concerns, the stage is set for a tense tactical battle under the Merseyside lights.

Match at a Glance: Everton vs. Arsenal

Before diving into the deep analysis, here’s a snapshot of the crucial details for Saturday’s match.

Historical Context and Head-to-Head Record

The history between these two clubs is long and storied, but recent trends paint a clear picture of Arsenal’s dominance. In their last 65 meetings across all competitions, Arsenal have emerged victorious 41 times, compared to just 12 wins for Everton, with 12 matches ending in a draw.

However, the story changes when the venue shifts to Merseyside. Arsenal have found Goodison Park—and now the new Hill Dickinson Stadium—to be a formidable challenge. They have won just one of their last seven Premier League visits to Everton, drawing two and losing four. This psychological hurdle is one Arteta will be desperate for his team to overcome, especially as this marks their first-ever competitive match at Everton’s new home ground.

Last season’s encounters ended in two frustrating draws for the title-chasing Gunners (0-0 at home, 1-1 away), a result they will be keen to avoid this time around.

Team News and Tactical Breakdown

Everton’s Injury Conundrum

David Moyes faces a significant selection headache. His squad has been hit hard by a combination of injuries and international duty. Key creative midfielder Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, the team’s most productive player this season with four goals and two assists, is a major doubt due to a hamstring injury.

Furthermore, the club has lost Iliman Ndiaye and Idrissa Gueye to the Africa Cup of Nations, stripping the side of a dynamic attacker and a tenacious defensive presence. Long-term defensive absentees Jarrad Branthwaite and Séamus Coleman remain out.

This likely forces Moyes into changes. Tyler Dibling or Dwight McNeil could get rare starts in attack, while Tim Iroegbunam may partner James Garner in a reconfigured midfield. The probable lineup is a 4-2-3-1 formation with Jordan Pickford in goal, a back four of O’Brien, Tarkowski, Keane, and Mykolenko, with Garner and Iroegbunam holding, and an attack featuring Dibling, Alcaraz, Grealish (if fit), and striker Thierno Barry.

Arsenal’s Defensive Worries

While Everton’s issues are in attack, Arsenal’s problems are concentrated in defence. Ben White is the latest addition to a crowded treatment room, joining centre-backs Gabriel Magalhães and Cristhian Mosquera. Forward Kai Havertz also remains unavailable.

The positive news is the return of Riccardo Calafiori from suspension, who will slot in at left-back. William Saliba’s presence is a massive boost, and he is expected to partner Piero Hincapié in the heart of defence, with Jurriën Timber on the right. Further forward, the in-form Leandro Trossard will battle with Gabriel Martinelli and Eberechi Eze for a spot on the left wing.

Arsenal’s predicted 4-3-3 lineup features David Raya in goal, a backline of Timber, Saliba, Hincapié, and Calafiori. The midfield trio is expected to be Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice, and captain Martin Ødegaard, supporting a front three of Bukayo Saka, Viktor Gyökeres, and Eze or Trossard.

Key Stats and Trends to Watch

• Arsenal’s Away Jitters: Despite their league position, the Gunners are without a win in their last three Premier League away games (D2, L1). They have also conceded the first goal in five of their last seven top-flight away matches, including each of the last three.
• Everton’s Big-Game Struggle: The Toffees have suffered six league defeats this season, and five of those have come against sides currently in the Champions League positions.
• The Trossard Factor: Leandro Trossard has been directly involved in nine goals in his last nine Premier League away games (6 goals, 3 assists). He has also scored in each of Arsenal’s last two trips to Everton and could become the first Arsenal player to score in three consecutive visits since Ian Wright in the 1990s.
• A Low-Scoring Affair?: Four of the last five head-to-head meetings have featured under 2.5 goals.

Betting Odds, Predictions, and Tips

The bookmakers firmly install Arsenal as the favorites. The opening moneyline odds placed Everton at +500, with Arsenal at -175 and the draw at +290. The Asian Handicap market also reflects this, with Arsenal giving half a goal (-0.5).

Expert Predictions and Best Bets

1. Match Result: The Opta supercomputer gives Arsenal a 60.4% probability of winning, with the draw at 20.6% and an Everton victory at just 19%. Given Everton’s key absences and Arsenal’s need to respond to potential pressure from Manchester City, a narrow Arsenal victory is the most likely outcome. Prediction: Everton 0-1 Arsenal.
2. Player Prop Bet – Leandro Trossard to Score Anytime: This is the standout pick across multiple previews. His exceptional record against Everton and current form make odds around +260 (13/5) very attractive.
3. Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – No: With Everton missing their primary creator (Dewsbury-Hall) and a key attacker (Ndiaye), and Arsenal boasting the league’s best defence (10 goals conceded), a clean sheet for the visitors is a strong possibility. This aligns with the 1-0 scoreline prediction.
4. Total Goals – Under 2.5: The defensive solidity of both teams—when at full strength—and the historical trend of low-scoring games in this fixture support this bet.

The Final Whistle

This match is a classic Premier League puzzle. On paper, Arsenal’s superior quality and league position make them clear favourites. Yet, the intangibles—a new and noisy stadium, a historical bogey ground, and the relentless demands of a title race—add layers of complexity.

Mikel Arteta knows better than anyone what a trip to Everton entails. To secure that coveted Christmas number one spot and lay down a marker for the second half of the season, his team must finally conquer their Merseyside demons. All signs point to them having just enough to edge a tense, tight encounter, likely with a familiar face on the scoresheet.