Last Updated on August 12, 2026 by Maurya
The League 1 betting odds for 2026/27 point towards another fiercely competitive season in England’s third tier. Leicester City enter the campaign as clear favourites after relegation from the Championship, but Luton Town, Sheffield Wednesday, Plymouth Argyle, Huddersfield Town and Stockport County are among a deep group of clubs capable of challenging for promotion.
As of 12 August 2026, just before the opening League One weekend, Leicester are around 9/4 favourites with odds comparison sites, while individual bookmakers have them even shorter. Oddschecker lists Leicester at 9/4, followed by Luton Town and Sheffield Wednesday at 7/1 and Plymouth Argyle at 12/1.
However, the shortest price does not automatically represent the best bet. League One is notoriously difficult to predict, and the latest Opta simulations actually suggest a considerably more open promotion race than the bookmaker market implies.
League One Betting Odds 2026/27
| Market | Prediction | Available Market Price* | Verdict |
| League One winner | Leicester City | Around 2/1–9/4 | Favourite |
| Alternative title pick | Luton Town | Around 13/2–7/1 | Best challenger |
| Value title bet | Stockport County | Around 14/1 | Each-way/value |
| Promotion | Plymouth Argyle | Around 4/1 | Strong value contender |
| Top two | Luton Town | Around 3/1 | Worth considering |
| Top six | Plymouth Argyle | Around 5/4 | Solid contender |
| Relegation | AFC Wimbledon | Around 11/10 | Leading danger |
| Top goalscorer | Aribim Pepple | Around 15/2 | Leading current contender |
*Prices are snapshots from bookmakers and comparison sites on 12 August 2026 and can change without notice. Current Paddy Power markets, for example, list Leicester at 2/1 for the title, Sheffield Wednesday at 6/1, Luton at 13/2, Plymouth at 11/1, Huddersfield at 12/1 and Stockport at 14/1.
Latest League One Winner Odds 2026/27
League One outright markets have Leicester sitting comfortably at the head of the betting.
Oddschecker’s latest comparison shows:
| Team | League One Winner Odds |
| Leicester City | 9/4 |
| Luton Town | 7/1 |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 7/1 |
| Plymouth Argyle | 12/1 |
These prices underline the gap between Leicester and the rest of the field.
Individual bookmakers vary significantly. Paddy Power currently offers Leicester at 2/1, Sheffield Wednesday at 6/1, Luton at 13/2, Plymouth at 11/1, Huddersfield at 12/1 and Stockport at 14/1.
That difference is important. A bettor backing an outright selection months before settlement should generally shop for the largest available price rather than automatically using one sportsbook.
Are Leicester City Worth Backing to Win League One?
Prediction: Leicester City – 1st
Leicester are understandably favourites.
Russell Martin has taken charge of a club that, despite consecutive relegations, still possesses resources and individual quality uncommon at League One level. The Guardian’s season preview notes that several high earners have left but argues that enough talent remains to make Leicester genuine promotion contenders, with players such as Harry Souttar and Stephy Mavididi providing experience around the club’s younger players.
The bookmakers have reacted accordingly.
Current Paddy Power prices include:
- League One title: 2/1
- Promotion: 4/6
- Top-two finish: 11/10
- Top-six finish: 2/9
At those prices, promotion is considered substantially more likely than failure.
There is nevertheless an important reason not to treat Leicester as an automatic winner.
Opta’s 12 August supercomputer simulations give Leicester only an 8.1% title probability and a 15.5% chance of finishing in the top two. Interestingly, that makes them only fourth in Opta’s ranking for automatic promotion probability despite their position as overwhelming bookmaker favourites.
That difference between the betting market and statistical model is one of the major stories heading into the season.
Betting verdict
Leicester are our predicted champions, but the title price is short.
They have the highest ceiling in the division, yet 2/1 or 9/4 provides considerably less margin for error than the prices available about other contenders. Promotion may be the safer outcome, although odds around 4/6 offer limited upside.
For outright betting, Leicester are the obvious selection rather than necessarily the strongest value selection.
Luton Town Could Be the Best Alternative
Prediction: Luton – Automatic Promotion
Luton are arguably the most interesting club near the front of the market.
They finished strongly last season, and Opta reports that Jack Wilshere’s team won eight of their final 10 league games while drawing the other two. Summer additions have strengthened their case for another promotion push.
Opta’s simulations are especially bullish.
Luton:
- won League One in 14.0% of simulations;
- finished in the top two in 24.9%.
Compare that with outright prices of approximately 13/2 to 7/1.
Odds of 7/1 represent an implied probability of 12.5% before considering bookmaker margin. Opta’s 14% title projection is slightly higher.
That does not guarantee value—the model and bookmakers use different assumptions—but it makes Luton one of the more interesting alternatives to Leicester.
Best bet: Luton to win League One at 7/1 or bigger
Leicester may have the stronger squad on paper, but Luton offer a much more attractive potential return.
For bettors who believe Wilshere can maintain last season’s late momentum, Luton at around 7/1 is one of our preferred outright options.
Sheffield Wednesday: Huge Potential, Significant Uncertainty
Sheffield Wednesday are another fascinating contender.
They have undergone significant changes after a turbulent Championship campaign, but new ownership has created greater optimism. The Guardian highlighted the signing of Louie Barry as a major statement of intent, while the club’s wider squad rebuild makes Wednesday difficult to assess accurately before competitive matches begin.
Bookmakers remain confident.
Paddy Power currently prices Wednesday at:
- 6/1 to win League One
- 2/1 for promotion
- 5/2 for a top-two finish
- 1/2 for the top six
The Opta model is much more cautious, giving Sheffield Wednesday only a 3.4% title chance and 7.3% probability of automatic promotion.
That is a major gap.
Betting verdict
Wednesday may ultimately justify their short price if their rebuilt squad quickly clicks, but 6/1 does not appeal as strongly as Luton or some double-digit outsiders.
This is a team worth reassessing after the first six to eight league matches.
Plymouth Argyle Look Undervalued
Prediction: Plymouth – Play-offs
Plymouth are one of our favourite value teams for the 2026/27 League One season.
The market has them around 11/1–12/1 for the title, while Paddy Power lists them at 4/1 for promotion, 5/1 for a top-two finish and 5/4 to make the top six.
Opta is considerably more enthusiastic.
Plymouth won the title in approximately 14% of simulations and finished in the top two in 24.9%, almost identical to Luton.
Those percentages are striking given Plymouth’s double-digit bookmaker title price.
Tom Cleverley’s team finished eighth last season, only narrowly outside the stronger promotion conversation, and another year of League One experience could help.
Best value bet: Plymouth promotion at around 4/1
Promotion is our preferred Plymouth market.
Finishing first is difficult, but the promotion market gives bettors three possible routes: first, second or winning the play-offs.
A 4/1 promotion price therefore looks more forgiving than relying exclusively on Plymouth winning the title.
Stockport County: Our Dark Horse
Prediction: Stockport – Top Six
Stockport were one win away from Championship football last season before losing the play-off final to Bolton.
There has been managerial change since then, with Jimmy McNulty replacing Dave Challinor. The Guardian notes that Stockport have continued their focus on developing younger talent while adding experienced players such as Ben Osborn and Eoghan O’Connell.
Despite those changes, the Opta model remains impressed.
Stockport:
- won the title in 9.9% of simulations;
- finished automatically promoted in 18.8%.
Yet Paddy Power lists them at approximately 14/1 for the title and 7/1 for a top-two finish.
A 14/1 price represents an implied probability of roughly 6.7%, noticeably lower than Opta’s 9.9% title projection.
Best outsider: Stockport at 14/1
For bettors looking beyond the favourites, Stockport are arguably one of the strongest options.
They have recent evidence that they can compete near the top of this division, and their current price compensates bettors better for the uncertainty created by the managerial change.
Huddersfield Town Betting Prediction
Huddersfield are another club capable of mounting a promotion challenge.
They are approximately 12/1 for the League One title, 4/1 for promotion and 11/2 to finish in the top two with Paddy Power.
Opta gives them a 12% probability of automatic promotion, keeping Huddersfield firmly within the second group of contenders.
They are not our strongest outright selection at the current price, but Huddersfield should remain on the shortlist for top-six and promotion bets if their early performances support the preseason expectations.
League One Promotion Odds 2026/27
Three clubs ultimately move into the Championship. The top two receive automatic promotion, while teams finishing third through sixth enter the play-offs, with the play-off winner taking the final promotion position.
Current Paddy Power promotion prices include:
| Team | Promotion Odds |
| Leicester | 4/6 |
| Sheffield Wednesday | 2/1 |
| Luton | 5/2 |
| Stockport | 4/1 |
| Plymouth | 4/1 |
| Huddersfield | 4/1 |
Our promotion predictions
Leicester City – automatic promotion
Luton Town – automatic promotion
Plymouth Argyle – play-off promotion pick
Stockport are the team most likely to disrupt that trio in our view.
League One Top-Six Betting
The top-six market is often more forgiving than outright promotion betting.
A selection only needs to finish in positions one through six; it does not have to survive the unpredictable play-offs.
Current Paddy Power prices include Leicester at 2/9, Sheffield Wednesday at 1/2, Luton at 4/7, Plymouth at 5/4, Huddersfield at 13/10 and MK Dons at 13/8.
Best top-six pick: Plymouth
At around 5/4, Plymouth are more appealing to us than the heavily odds-on leading trio.
There is enough evidence to view them as a promotion contender, yet bettors can win this market without requiring Cleverley’s side to actually go up.
League One Relegation Odds 2026/27
The relegation market is equally competitive because four League One clubs drop into League Two.
Current odds include:
| Team | Relegation Odds |
| Bromley | Evens |
| AFC Wimbledon | 11/10 |
| Burton Albion | 11/8 |
| Cambridge United | 7/4 |
| Notts County | 11/4 |
| Leyton Orient | 3/1 |
Opta sees things somewhat differently.
Its latest simulations produce the following relegation probabilities:
- AFC Wimbledon – 47.8%
- Peterborough United – 31.4%
- Bromley – 31.3%
- Barnsley – 28.9%
- Notts County – 28.5%
- Cambridge United – 26.8%
- Leyton Orient – 25.4%
- MK Dons – 25.0%
Relegation pick: AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon are the clearest statistical candidate.
However, the bookmaker market already reflects that danger. Odds of 11/10 imply a probability close to 48%, essentially matching Opta’s projection.
Therefore, Wimbledon may be the most likely relegation selection without necessarily being an obvious value bet.
Bromley are even more interesting from a value perspective—but in the opposite direction. Evens implies a 50% probability, while Opta’s model has them going down in only 31.3% of simulations. That gap suggests their relegation price may be too short rather than attractive.
League One Top Goalscorer Betting
The Golden Boot market provides another way to bet across the full season.
Paddy Power’s current leading selections include:
| Player | Club | Odds |
| Aribim Pepple | Plymouth | 15/2 |
| Louie Barry | Sheffield Wednesday | 11/1 |
| Jack Marriott | Reading | 11/1 |
| Alfie May | Doncaster | 11/1 |
| Harry Leonard | Peterborough | 13/1 |
| Jaze Kabia | Leyton Orient | 17/1 |
Top scorer pick: Aribim Pepple
Pepple is our preferred option.
His case is strengthened by Plymouth’s overall promotion potential. Backing a striker from a team expected to spend significant periods attacking on the front foot generally makes more sense than selecting a goalscorer whose club could struggle for possession and chances.
That said, Golden Boot markets carry significant risks. Injuries, rotation, penalty duties and January transfers can completely change the picture over a 46-game campaign.
League One 2026/27 Predicted Top Six
Our preseason prediction is:
| Position | Club |
| 1 | Leicester City |
| 2 | Luton Town |
| 3 | Plymouth Argyle |
| 4 | Stockport County |
| 5 | Sheffield Wednesday |
| 6 | Huddersfield Town |
This differs somewhat from data-driven projections. For comparison, a separate Squawka preseason model predicted Leicester first, Luton second, Sheffield Wednesday third, Oxford fourth, Stockport fifth and Plymouth sixth.
That disagreement is useful rather than problematic: it demonstrates how little separates many of the teams behind Leicester.
Best League One Bets for 2026/27
After comparing bookmaker prices, squad outlooks and statistical forecasts, these are the selections that stand out most:
Leicester City to Win League One
Target odds: 9/4 or better
Leicester remain our most likely champions, but avoid taking unnecessarily short prices when odds comparison can produce something better.
Luton Town to Win League One
Target odds: 7/1 or better
Possibly the strongest combination of price and underlying promotion potential. Opta’s 14% title projection compares favourably with the implied probability of a 7/1 market price.
Plymouth Argyle to Be Promoted
Target odds: 4/1 or better
Our preferred promotion value bet. Plymouth do not need to win the title for this wager to succeed.
Stockport County to Win League One
Target odds: 14/1 or better
A higher-risk selection suited to smaller stakes. Opta’s 9.9% title projection makes the available double-digit price noteworthy.
AFC Wimbledon to Be Relegated
Target odds: 6/5 or better
They have the highest relegation probability in Opta’s current simulations, although 11/10 looks close to a statistically fair market price rather than outstanding value.
How to Find Value in League One Betting Odds
The best football bet is not necessarily the team most likely to win.
Value exists when your estimated probability of an outcome is greater than the probability implied by the available odds.
For example:
7/1 odds = 12.5% implied probability
If you estimate that a club has a 17% chance of winning the title, then 7/1 may offer theoretical value.
Conversely:
2/1 odds = 33.3% implied probability
A team can be the favourite while still being unattractive if you believe its true chance of winning is only 25%.
This is especially useful in League One because prices can change quickly following transfers, injuries, managerial changes and early-season results. Match odds also move as team news and form develop.
Factors to Consider Before Betting on League One
Successful long-term analysis should go beyond last season’s final table.
Pay particular attention to squad depth. League One clubs play a demanding 46-game league schedule before cup competitions are considered.
Managerial stability also matters. A strong squad adapting to a new manager may require several weeks before reaching its potential.
Transfers can have an even larger impact at this level than in the Premier League. Losing one 20-goal striker or first-choice goalkeeper can dramatically change a club’s outlook.
Finally, monitor underlying performance rather than simply results. Expected goals, shots created, shots conceded and chance quality can sometimes reveal improvement or decline before the league table catches up.
League One Opening Weekend 2026/27
The 2026/27 EFL opening weekend runs across 14–16 August, with the main League One programme on Saturday 15 August.
Notable opening League One fixtures include Notts County against Leicester, Reading against Luton, Leyton Orient against Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth against Stockport.
Those matches should immediately provide useful information about several leading promotion candidates.
FAQs
Who are favourites to win League One in 2026/27?
Leicester City are the clear bookmaker favourites. Odds comparison markets had them around 9/4 on 12 August, ahead of Luton and Sheffield Wednesday at approximately 7/1.
Who is the best bet to win League One?
Our prediction is Leicester City, but Luton at around 7/1 arguably offer better value relative to the latest Opta projections.
Who will be promoted from League One?
Our three promotion predictions are Leicester City, Luton Town and Plymouth Argyle, with Stockport County rated as the biggest threat.
Which League One team is the best dark horse?
Stockport County appeal at approximately 14/1. Opta gave them a 9.9% title probability and an 18.8% chance of automatic promotion in its 12 August simulations.
Who are favourites for League One relegation?
Bromley and AFC Wimbledon lead the bookmaker relegation market. Opta, however, rates AFC Wimbledon as the most likely club to go down, with a 47.8% relegation probability.
Who is favourite for the League One Golden Boot?
Current Paddy Power prices have Plymouth’s Aribim Pepple at 15/2 among the leading top-goalscorer selections, followed by Louie Barry, Jack Marriott and Alfie May at 11/1.
Final League One Betting Predictions 2026/27
The 2026/27 League One betting market gives Leicester enormous respect, and it is easy to understand why. Russell Martin has inherited a squad containing significantly more individual quality than is normally found in England’s third tier.
But this should not be mistaken for a one-team league.
Luton finished last season strongly, Plymouth are highly rated by statistical projections, Stockport came agonisingly close to promotion last year, and Sheffield Wednesday possess considerable upside if their rebuild succeeds. Opta’s simulations underline just how competitive the division could be, with Leicester far less dominant statistically than their bookmaker price suggests.
Our 2026/27 League One betting verdict:
- Champions: Leicester City
- Best title value: Luton Town
- Best promotion bet: Plymouth Argyle
- Best outsider: Stockport County
- Top-six pick: Plymouth Argyle
- Relegation prediction: AFC Wimbledon
- Top scorer pick: Aribim Pepple
League One has repeatedly produced surprise promotion challenges and unexpected champions, so price remains just as important as prediction. Compare odds across bookmakers, reassess teams as new evidence arrives and avoid chasing a selection after its value has disappeared.
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