Burnley vs. Crystal Palace Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips

Last Updated on February 24, 2026 by author

A Premier League clash at Turf Moor pits a struggling Burnley against a high-flying Crystal Palace in a match with significant implications at both ends of the table. This comprehensive guide breaks down the head-to-head stats, current form, betting odds, and expert predictions to help you understand where the value lies for this fixture.

Match Overview and Key Details

The upcoming Premier League encounter between Burnley and Crystal Palace is scheduled for Thursday, 4 December 2025, with a kick-off time of 6:30 AM AEDT (Australian Eastern Daylight Time). The match will be hosted at Turf Moor, Burnley’s historic home ground.

This match represents a classic Premier League battle between a team fighting for survival and one with ambitions for European qualification. As of the current 2025/2026 season standings, Crystal Palace sits in a impressive 5th position, firmly in contention for a UEFA Europa League spot. In stark contrast, Burnley finds themselves in the 19th position, deeply embroiled in a relegation battle. The context of these league positions will undoubtedly shape the tactical approach of both sides, with Burnley desperate for points and Palace looking to consolidate their strong start.

• Competition: Premier League 2025/2026
• Date: Thursday, 4 December 2025
• Kick-off Time: 6:30 AM AEDT
• Venue: Turf Moor, Burnley

Current Form and Team Analysis

A closer examination of both teams’ recent performances reveals a clear disparity in form and confidence.

Burnley: Struggling for Consistency

Burnley enters this match in poor overall form in the Premier League. Their statistical profile reveals the challenges they’ve faced:

• Overall Record: 3 wins, 1 draw, 8 losses from 12 games.
• Home Form: 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses at Turf Moor.
• Goal Difference: -10 (14 goals scored, 24 conceded).
• Attack: Averaging 1.10 goals scored per game overall, but only 0.67 goals per game at home.
• Defense: Conceding an average of 2.00 goals per game overall.

Burnley’s primary struggle has been in front of goal, particularly at home, while their defense has been vulnerable. They will need to significantly improve at both ends of the pitch to get a result against a solid Palace side.

Crystal Palace: A Surprise Package

Crystal Palace, under their manager, has been one of the stories of the season, displaying mixed but overall strong form. Their stats underscore their effectiveness:

• Overall Record: 5 wins, 5 draws, only 2 losses from 12 games.
• Away Form: 3 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses on the road.
• Goal Difference: +7 (16 goals scored, 9 conceded).
• Attack: Averaging a solid 1.60 goals per game.
• Defense: Exceptionally strong, conceding just 0.80 goals per game on average, with a remarkable 0.60 goals conceded in away matches.

Palace’s strength lies in a well-organized defense and a capable attack. Their ability to keep clean sheets—achieved in 50% of their overall matches and 60% of their away games—will be a key asset.

Head-to-Head (H2H) Historical Record

The historical rivalry between these two clubs provides some intriguing context, though past results may not fully reflect their current trajectories.

Summary of Past Encounters

The head-to-head record between Burnley and Crystal Palace is a long and relatively even one. According to the most comprehensive data available:

• Total Matches Played: 44.
• Burnley Wins: 12.
• Crystal Palace Wins: 15.
• Draws: 17.

Another source, which may filter for specific competitions, lists 31 total matches, with 9 wins for Burnley, 11 for Crystal Palace, and 11 draws. Regardless of the exact total, the history points to a competitive fixture.

Recent Meetings

Recent history, however, has tilted in Crystal Palace’s favour. Looking at the most recent Premier League encounters:

• 04 Nov 2023: Burnley 0 – 2 Crystal Palace.
• 24 Feb 2024: Crystal Palace 3 – 0 Burnley.
• 26 Feb 2022: Crystal Palace 1 – 1 Burnley.
• 20 Nov 2021: Burnley 3 – 3 Crystal Palace.

Palace’s two consecutive victories, including a clean sheet at Turf Moor, will give them a psychological edge. The data also shows that in their long history, Palace has a slight edge in goals, scoring 62 to Burnley’s 46 in their 44 meetings.

Betting Odds and Probabilities

The betting markets clearly reflect the current form and league standings of the two teams.

Win-Draw-Win Odds

The latest head-to-head odds from major bookmakers like Bet365 are as follows:

• Burnley to Win: $4.50
• Draw: $3.90
• Crystal Palace to Win: $1.70

These odds translate to implied probabilities of:

• Burnley Win: 22.2%
• Draw: 25.6%
• Crystal Palace Win: 58.8%

Data-Driven Model Probabilities

Independent predictive analytics models, which simulate the match outcome thousands of times, provide a more nuanced view. Stats Insider and Dimers.com, after running 10,000 simulations, concur on the following probabilities:

• Burnley Win Probability: 22.2%
• Draw Probability: 23.4%
• Crystal Palace Win Probability: 54.5%

It’s worth noting that the betting odds offer slightly better value on a Crystal Palace win ($1.70 vs. a model-probability equivalent of ~$1.83) and significantly better value on a Burnley win ($4.50 vs. a model-probability equivalent of ~$4.50). This discrepancy is where astute bettors often look for opportunities.

Other Popular Betting Markets

• Total Goals (Over/Under 2.5): Over $2.00, Under $1.80.
• Both Teams to Score (BTTS): “Yes” is priced at evens or better on some platforms, with one popular tipster platform showing 100% of tipsters backing both teams to score.

Burnley vs Crystal Palace Prediction

Scoreline Prediction

After analysing all the available data—current form, defensive records, H2H history, and simulated probabilities—the most likely outcome appears to be a low-scoring victory for Crystal Palace or a draw.

Our prediction for the correct score is Burnley 1 – 1 Crystal Palace. This aligns with several key factors: Palace’s strong defense makes them difficult to beat, but Burnley’s desperation for points at home could see them find a goal. Furthermore, a 1-1 draw is the single most likely correct score outcome according to Dimers.com’s simulations, with an 11% probability.

An alternative, and also very plausible, correct score prediction is 1-2 to Crystal Palace. This outcome acknowledges Palace’s superior quality and attacking threat, while also accounting for Burnley’s tendency to concede and their potential to score at home.

Reasoning Behind the Prediction

1. Crystal Palace’s Defensive Solidity: Conceding only 0.80 goals per game on average and keeping clean sheets in 60% of their away games is the defining characteristic of their season. It is the primary reason they are favoured to avoid defeat.
2. Burnley’s Offensive Struggles: Scoring just 0.67 goals per game at home is a major concern. Breaking down a well-drilled Palace defense will be their biggest challenge.
3. The Draw Tendency: With 17 draws in 44 historical matches, this fixture has a proven history of being closely contested. Furthermore, Palace has drawn 5 of their 12 games this season, showing they are not always able to convert their dominance into wins.

Expert Betting Tips

Based on the statistical analysis, here are the most value-driven betting tips for this Premier League clash.

Top Recommended Bets

• Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Yes: This is our top recommendation. Despite Palace’s strong defensive record, Burnley’s desperation at home and Palace’s occasional concession of goals (BTTS has occurred in 30% of their matches) makes this a strong play. One of OLBG’s expert tipsters also backs this, noting, “I can see them [Burnley] getting a goal against high-flying Crystal Palace”. The odds for “Yes” offer good value.
• Total Goals: Under 2.5: Priced at $1.80, this is a solid statistical bet. Burnley’s home games have seen under 2.5 goals in 60% of their last 10 matches, while Crystal Palace’s away games have seen the same in 60% of their last 10. With both teams not being free-scoring, a tight, cagey affair is likely.
• Double Chance: Crystal Palace or Draw (X2): For those seeking a safer, lower-return option, backing Palace to avoid defeat combines their win and draw probabilities (totalling ~78%) and offers a high chance of success.

Other Betting Angles to Consider

• Correct Score 1-1: For higher odds, the 1-1 draw is the most probable exact scoreline.
• Under 3.5 Goals: This looks “solid,” as Burnley have stayed under this line in 90% of their last 10 home matches, with Palace showing the same in 100% of their last 10 away fixtures.
• Jean-Philippe Mateta to Score Anytime: As Crystal Palace’s primary striker, he is always a threat to find the net and is a popular pick for goalscorer markets.

Conclusion

The Premier League clash between Burnley and Crystal Palace at Turf Moor is set to be a tactical battle between a defensively resilient away side and a home team fighting for their top-flight life. While the historical H2H record is even, current form and defensive statistics heavily favour Crystal Palace.

The most likely outcomes are a Palace win or a draw, with a 1-1 scoreline presenting strong value. For bettors, the best tips appear to be Both Teams to Score (Yes) and Under 2.5 Total Goals, reflecting a match where Palace’s defense is key, but Burnley’s home desperation could see them get on the scoresheet.

As always, it’s crucial to gamble responsibly. The beautiful game is renowned for its unpredictability, which is precisely what makes matches like this so compelling to watch.

*18+. Odds are subject to change. Please gamble responsibly. For help and advice, visit GamblingHelpOnline.org.au.*