WM Phoenix Open Betting Tips 2026

Last Updated on June 22, 2026 by author

The WM Phoenix Open is one of the most exciting tournaments on the PGA Tour calendar, combining elite golf with one of the most electric atmospheres in professional sports. Hosted annually at TPC Scottsdale in Arizona, the tournament attracts massive crowds and a world-class field, making it a prime opportunity for golf bettors looking to capitalize on form, course fit, and value in the betting markets.

For the 2026 edition, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler enters as the overwhelming favorite after another dominant start to the PGA Tour season and his impressive history at TPC Scottsdale. However, betting favorites do not always offer the best value, especially in a tournament known for producing dramatic finishes and surprise contenders. Recent editions have seen longshots and mid-tier players contend deep into Sunday, creating opportunities across outright winner, each-way, top-10, and matchup markets.

Tournament Overview

The 2026 WM Phoenix Open takes place at TPC Scottsdale’s Stadium Course, a par-71 layout measuring approximately 7,261 yards. The event runs from February 5-8 and features a strong field competing for a $9.6 million purse.

TPC Scottsdale is famous for:

• The iconic par-3 16th hole
• Reachable par-5 scoring opportunities
• Fast overseeded greens
• Strong emphasis on approach play
• Birdie-making ability under pressure

The venue rewards aggressive players who can attack pins while maintaining strong ball-striking consistency throughout the week. Historically, elite iron players and golfers with excellent Strokes Gained: Approach numbers tend to thrive here.

WM Phoenix Open 2026 Betting Favorites

According to early sportsbook markets, Scottie Scheffler sits comfortably atop the betting board at around +220 to +225, making him one of the shortest-priced favorites on the PGA Tour this season.

Scottie Scheffler (+220 to +225)

Scheffler’s record at TPC Scottsdale is remarkable. The two-time Phoenix Open champion has consistently dominated this venue and arrives in Arizona after another PGA Tour victory earlier in the season. Betting analysts estimate his implied win probability above 30%, highlighting just how dominant he has become.

Pros

• Elite ball-striking
• Outstanding course history
• Excellent recent form
• Proven closer under pressure

Cons

• Extremely short odds
• Limited betting value compared to the field

While Scheffler is clearly the most likely winner, outright bettors may struggle to find value at such short prices.

Xander Schauffele (+1700 to +1900)

Schauffele remains one of the most consistent performers on the PGA Tour. Despite some mixed recent results, his all-around game suits TPC Scottsdale perfectly. His ability to gain strokes in every category makes him a legitimate challenger.

Hideki Matsuyama (+2200 to +2700)

A two-time Phoenix Open champion, Matsuyama has one of the strongest course histories in the field. Recent analysts have highlighted him as one of the best value plays due to his combination of experience, ball-striking excellence, and comfort on this layout.

Cameron Young (+2200 to +2500)

Young continues searching for a breakthrough signature victory. His power off the tee and improving iron play make him a dangerous contender on a course where birdies are required to win.

Key Betting Trends at TPC Scottsdale

Before placing wagers, understanding historical tournament trends can provide a significant edge.

Course Experience Matters

Many recent contenders have demonstrated strong previous results at TPC Scottsdale. Players often require multiple appearances before truly mastering the nuances of the Stadium Course.

Elite Approach Play Wins

Strokes Gained: Approach remains one of the strongest predictive metrics at the WM Phoenix Open. Golfers who consistently rank near the top of iron-play statistics should receive extra attention.

Birdie Makers Thrive

Winning scores often reach 15-under or lower. Aggressive scorers who generate large numbers of birdie opportunities tend to outperform conservative players.

Playoff Potential

TPC Scottsdale regularly produces close finishes. Several recent editions have gone to playoffs, highlighting the importance of considering each-way and placement markets rather than focusing solely on outright winners.

Best Outright Bets

Hideki Matsuyama (+2500)

Best Value Outright Pick

Matsuyama combines elite course history with strong recent form. Few players in the field understand TPC Scottsdale better, and his iron game remains among the strongest on Tour.

Reasons to back Matsuyama:

• Two-time Phoenix Open winner
• Excellent approach statistics
• Proven ability to handle tournament pressure
• Consistent success at TPC Scottsdale

Several expert handicappers have identified him as one of the best value opportunities in the outright market.

Cameron Young (+2200 to +2500)

Young continues trending toward a major breakthrough. His recent performances suggest a win is approaching, and his aggressive style fits Scottsdale perfectly.

Why he appeals:

• Elite driving distance
• Improving putting numbers
• Strong recent form
• High birdie conversion rate

Maverick McNealy (+2800 to +3300)

McNealy offers an attractive balance between upside and value. Analysts have noted his strong tournament history and solid start to the 2026 season.

Best Each-Way Bets

Sahith Theegala (+4500)

Theegala has shown flashes of elite golf and appears comfortable on desert layouts. His creativity around the greens can become a major advantage if scoring conditions become challenging. Analysts have pointed toward improving form entering the week.

Jordan Spieth (+4500 to +6000)

Spieth’s record at Scottsdale remains impressive. Despite inconsistent recent seasons, he consistently contends at this event and often exceeds market expectations.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+6600)

For bettors seeking longer odds, Bezuidenhout provides substantial each-way appeal. Recent form and previous success at the venue suggest he could outperform his market price.

Top-10 Finish Bets

Outright markets receive most of the attention, but top-10 bets often provide superior long-term value.

Si Woo Kim

Kim’s all-around game and recent form make him an excellent candidate for a top-10 finish. Several analysts have highlighted him as one of the strongest non-Scheffler betting options.

Ben Griffin

Griffin continues developing into one of the PGA Tour’s most reliable performers. His consistency makes him a strong placement-market candidate.

Harris English

English’s steady approach and experience often translate into strong finishes at demanding PGA Tour events.

Longshot Sleeper Picks

Every year, the Phoenix Open produces surprises. If you’re looking for triple-digit odds, consider these sleepers.

Sepp Straka (+5000 to +8800)

Straka’s underlying metrics remain stronger than recent results indicate. Several experts believe he is undervalued entering the week.

Patrick Rodgers (+10000)

Rodgers possesses enough firepower to contend if his putter heats up. At triple-digit odds, he represents intriguing upside.

Hao Tong Li (+8000 to +10000)

Recent international form has attracted attention from betting analysts, making him one of the more interesting longshot candidates.

WM Phoenix Open 2026 Betting Card

For bettors seeking a balanced portfolio, consider the following approach:

Outright Winners

• Hideki Matsuyama (+2500)
• Cameron Young (+2500)
• Maverick McNealy (+3000)

Each-Way Bets

• Sahith Theegala (+4500)
• Jordan Spieth (+6000)
• Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+6600)

Top-10 Finishes

• Si Woo Kim
• Ben Griffin
• Harris English

Longshot Sprinkle

• Sepp Straka
• Hao Tong Li

Final Prediction

Scottie Scheffler is deservedly the favorite and unquestionably the player to beat. His dominance at TPC Scottsdale and current form make him the most likely winner on paper. However, betting is about value, not simply predicting the most likely outcome.

From a pure betting perspective, Hideki Matsuyama stands out as the strongest outright selection. His exceptional course history, elite ball-striking profile, and attractive odds provide the ideal combination for bettors seeking value.

For those targeting bigger returns, Cameron Young and Maverick McNealy offer legitimate winning upside, while Jordan Spieth and Sahith Theegala represent strong each-way alternatives.

Best Bets Summary

1. Hideki Matsuyama – Outright Winner
2. Cameron Young – Outright Winner
3. Jordan Spieth – Each-Way
4. Si Woo Kim – Top 10 Finish
5. Sepp Straka – Longshot Value Pick

As always, wager responsibly and remember that golf betting carries inherent volatility. Diversifying across outright, each-way, and placement markets can help create a more sustainable betting strategy throughout the PGA Tour season.