Last Updated on August 9, 2026 by Maurya
The PGA Championship 2021 betting review is one of the most fascinating major-championship case studies of the modern sportsbook era. Few golf tournaments have demonstrated the volatility of outright betting quite as dramatically as the 2021 PGA Championship at Kiawah Island.
Rory McIlroy entered tournament week as the betting favorite at approximately 11/1 in one widely reported William Hill market. Phil Mickelson, meanwhile, could be backed at around 200/1, with some sportsbooks reportedly offering even bigger prices. Four days later, the 50-year-old Mickelson was holding the Wanamaker Trophy after completing one of the greatest upsets in major golf history.
The result was remarkable historically, but it was equally extraordinary from a betting perspective. Mickelson’s price moved from triple-digit outsider territory to roughly 12/1 after 36 holes before dropping to around 3/1 ahead of Sunday’s final round. Even then, bookmakers continued to favor Brooks Koepka despite Mickelson holding the lead.
This retrospective examines the pre-tournament favorites, Mickelson’s remarkable odds movement, the course conditions, round-by-round betting changes and the biggest lessons bettors could take from the 2021 PGA Championship.
PGA Championship 2021
| Category | 2021 PGA Championship |
| Tournament | 103rd PGA Championship |
| Dates | May 20–23, 2021 |
| Venue | Ocean Course, Kiawah Island |
| Par | 72 |
| Championship yardage | 7,876 yards |
| Winner | Phil Mickelson |
| Winning score | 282 (-6) |
| Winning margin | 2 strokes |
| Runners-up | Brooks Koepka, Louis Oosthuizen |
| Mickelson pre-tournament odds | Around 200/1 at William Hill |
| Pre-tournament favorite | Rory McIlroy, around 11/1 |
| Mickelson’s age | 50 |
| Historical achievement | Oldest men’s major champion at the time |
The Ocean Course was officially listed at 7,876 yards and par 72, although daily setups varied. Its exposed seaside location, enormous length, sand, wind and demanding approach shots created exactly the type of major-championship test where avoiding large mistakes could be more valuable than simply accumulating birdies.
Mickelson eventually finished six under par, two strokes clear of Koepka and Oosthuizen. His victory made him the oldest major champion in men’s golf history, breaking a record previously held by Julius Boros.
Pre-Tournament PGA Championship 2021 Odds
One archived William Hill betting board reported by CBS Sports shortly before the tournament had Rory McIlroy as the 11/1 favorite.
McIlroy’s position at the top of the market was understandable. He had won the PGA Championship when it was previously held at Kiawah Island in 2012 and entered the 2021 tournament after winning the Wells Fargo Championship earlier in May.
A representative pre-tournament odds board looked like this:
| Golfer | Approx. Pre-Tournament Odds |
| Rory McIlroy | 11/1 |
| Justin Thomas | 14/1 |
| Jon Rahm | 14/1 |
| Jordan Spieth | 16/1 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 16/1 |
| Dustin Johnson | 18/1 |
| Xander Schauffele | 22/1 |
| Viktor Hovland | 25/1 |
| Daniel Berger | 30/1 |
| Collin Morikawa | 30/1 |
| Brooks Koepka | 33/1 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 35/1 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 60/1 |
| Phil Mickelson | 200/1 |
| Harry Higgs | 300/1 |
| Pádraig Harrington | 400/1 |
These figures come from an archived William Hill market published by CBS Sports. Exact PGA Championship odds differed between sportsbooks and changed throughout tournament week, so historical prices should always be treated as snapshots rather than one universal closing line.
That distinction is important when reviewing Mickelson’s victory. His commonly quoted price is 200/1, but Golf Digest reported that some operators had offered approximately 250/1, while ESPN noted that prices could be found as high as roughly 300/1 at certain sportsbooks.
At 200/1 decimal-equivalent odds of 201.00, a £10 outright winning bet would theoretically return £2,010 including the original stake. At 250/1, the same £10 stake would return £2,510. Those examples demonstrate why Mickelson’s victory became such a major sportsbook story.
Why Kiawah Island Was So Important to the Betting Analysis
Good golf betting should start with the course rather than the player’s name.
That was particularly important at Kiawah Island.
The Ocean Course was designed by Pete and Alice Dye and stretches along the exposed South Carolina coastline. The PGA describes it as a windswept layout influenced by links-style courses in Scotland and Ireland. For the 2021 PGA Championship, it was listed at a massive 7,876 yards.
Length clearly mattered, but reducing the course to a simple “bombers only” test would have been a mistake.
Wind direction could dramatically alter the effective difficulty of holes. The official course description repeatedly highlights wind as a strategic factor, including on holes such as the seventh, 15th, 16th and 18th. The 17th was a 223-yard par three guarded by water and deep sand, while the 18th could stretch to 505 yards.
For bettors, that meant several attributes were valuable:
- Major-championship experience
- Distance without excessive inaccuracy
- Strong long-iron play
- Ability to control trajectory in wind
- Short-game creativity
- Mental patience
- Experience protecting par when scoring became difficult
Mickelson may not have looked attractive according to recent form alone, but his résumé included five previous major championships, including the 2005 PGA Championship. In hindsight, his experience and imagination around a difficult coastal course deserved more weight than the market gave them.
That does not mean bettors should routinely back ageing former champions at 200/1. It means that when the market price becomes extremely large, bettors should consider whether a player’s relevant strengths are being discounted too aggressively.
Round 1: Mickelson Immediately Beats Market Expectations
Corey Conners produced the best opening round, shooting 67 for five under par and taking the first-round lead.
Mickelson opened with a two-under 70. That put him only three strokes behind Conners and alongside several contenders near the top of the leaderboard. McIlroy, by contrast, opened with a three-over-par 75 despite arriving as the tournament favorite.
From a betting perspective, Thursday provided the first warning that the pre-tournament assumptions might be wrong.
A player priced around 200/1 does not need to lead after 18 holes to create substantial expected-value changes. Simply remaining close to the lead means much of the uncertainty responsible for the enormous pre-tournament price has already disappeared.
Mickelson had survived the opening examination and demonstrated that his game could handle Kiawah’s conditions.
Meanwhile, bettors who had taken short prices on McIlroy were immediately facing the opposite problem. The favorite was chasing the tournament rather than controlling it.
Round 2: Mickelson Becomes a Genuine Contender
Friday transformed Mickelson from an interesting outsider into a serious championship threat.
After opening with 70, he shot a three-under-par 69 in round two to reach five under overall. He shared the 36-hole lead with Louis Oosthuizen, while Brooks Koepka sat one stroke behind at four under.
This is where the betting market became especially revealing.
Despite Mickelson sharing the lead, an archived weekend market reported by CBS Sports had:
- Brooks Koepka: approximately 4/1
- Louis Oosthuizen: approximately 11/2
- Phil Mickelson: approximately 12/1
Think about the movement involved.
A golfer available around 200/1 before the tournament was approximately 12/1 just two rounds later.
The market had radically upgraded Mickelson’s winning probability, but bettors still had to decide whether 12/1 represented value.
That question is fundamentally different from asking whether 200/1 had been value on Wednesday.
Golf betting prices are continuously updated information. Once Mickelson became co-leader, bookmakers were no longer pricing the uncertain pre-tournament version of Phil Mickelson; they were pricing a proven five-under golfer with only 36 holes remaining.
Favorites Faltered at Kiawah
Another important element of the 2021 PGA Championship betting review was the failure of several heavily backed players.
Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson were among the major names who missed the 36-hole cut. McIlroy survived but never reproduced the dominance he had shown at Kiawah in 2012.
This illustrated a recurring problem with golf outright markets: short odds do not mean low risk.
Even the world’s best players can miss cuts. Unlike a head-to-head event, an outright golf wager may be competing against more than 150 golfers at a major championship.
A price of 11/1 implies a dramatically greater chance of winning than 200/1, but it still represents a relatively low absolute win probability.
That is why bankroll management matters enormously in golf betting.
Round 3: Mickelson Takes the Lead, But Koepka Remains the Market Favorite
Mickelson followed his opening rounds of 70 and 69 with another 70 on Saturday.
That moved him to seven under par after 54 holes and gave him a one-shot advantage over Koepka. Oosthuizen entered Sunday two shots behind Mickelson.
Yet the bookmakers did something that may initially appear surprising.
They made Koepka the favorite.
A William Hill market reported ahead of the final round listed Koepka at approximately 3/2, Mickelson around 3/1 and Oosthuizen around 6/1. Other archived markets had Mickelson closer to +275, illustrating the normal differences between operators and market timestamps.
Why would a player trailing by one shot be favored over the leader?
Because betting markets price probability, not merely leaderboard position.
Koepka was a four-time major champion at the time and had won consecutive PGA Championships in 2018 and 2019. The market was effectively saying that his established major-winning profile, age and expected performance over the remaining 18 holes outweighed Mickelson’s one-shot advantage.
It was a rational market assessment.
It was also wrong.
That distinction matters. A losing prediction is not automatically a bad betting decision, just as a winning bet is not automatically a good decision. Betting quality should be evaluated by whether the price offered was better than the true probability—not simply by whether one particular outcome occurred.
Final Round: Mickelson Completes the 200/1 Upset
Sunday began chaotically.
Mickelson bogeyed the opening hole while Koepka made birdie, immediately producing a multi-shot swing. The battle continued through the front nine before Mickelson delivered one of the tournament’s defining moments: a hole-out from a sandy area beside the fifth green for birdie.
He followed that dramatic moment with a bogey at six and birdie at seven before eventually reaching the back nine with the championship still in his control.
Mickelson birdied the 10th, dropped shots at 13 and 14, then made an important birdie at the par-five 16th. Even after a bogey on 17, he had enough of a cushion to finish the job on the 18th.
His final-round 73 produced a total of 282, six under par.
Koepka shot 74 and Oosthuizen 73, leaving both men two strokes behind at four under. Mickelson had won his second PGA Championship and sixth major title.
Most importantly from a historical perspective, he became the oldest player to win a men’s major championship. He was 50 and approaching his 51st birthday.
For pre-tournament bettors holding tickets of 200/1, 250/1 or potentially longer, it was an extraordinary result.
The Biggest Betting Winner: Phil Mickelson at 200/1+
Mickelson’s outright price understandably dominates any discussion of the tournament.
However, it is important not to draw the wrong conclusion from his win.
A 200/1 winner does not prove that betting numerous extreme outsiders is automatically profitable. The overwhelming majority of golfers priced at 200/1 lose.
The better lesson concerns price sensitivity.
Suppose a bettor believed Mickelson’s realistic probability of winning was 1%. Fair odds for that probability would be approximately 99/1 in fractional terms. If a sportsbook offered 200/1, that bettor might consider the price attractive even though the golfer would still be expected to lose about 99 times out of 100 under that simplified assumption.
Value betting is about the relationship between probability and price, not selecting the golfer most likely to win.
The 2021 PGA Championship became a spectacular demonstration of that principle.
Other Long-Shot Performances Bettors Should Remember
Mickelson was not the only outsider who dramatically exceeded market expectations.
Louis Oosthuizen had been available around 60/1 in the archived William Hill market and ultimately tied for second.
Harry Higgs, listed around 300/1 in the same pre-tournament market, finished tied for fourth at two under. Pádraig Harrington was quoted around 400/1 and also finished tied for fourth.
Those results would have been relevant to bettors using markets such as:
- Each-way betting
- Top-five finishes
- Top-10 finishes
- Top-20 finishes
- Tournament matchups
- Daily fantasy contests
Exact settlement rules vary significantly between bookmakers, particularly regarding dead heats and each-way place terms, so historical bettors would have needed to check the specific conditions attached to their wagers.
Nevertheless, the leaderboard reinforces the central point: Kiawah produced much more value outside the obvious group of favorites than pre-tournament consensus suggested.
What Bettors Got Right in 2021
The betting market was not entirely wrong.
Brooks Koepka was available at roughly 33/1 in one pre-tournament market and finished tied for second. Considering his proven PGA Championship record, that was a much stronger performance than his position outside the shortest-priced favorites might have suggested.
Oosthuizen at approximately 60/1 was another notable contender who rewarded bettors looking beyond the top of the board.
More broadly, experienced major performers dominated the decisive stages.
That suggests the market correctly recognized the importance of elite championship experience—but underestimated just how far down the odds board that experience could be found.
Five Betting Lessons From the 2021 PGA Championship
- Do Not Automatically Reject Triple-Digit Outsiders
Long odds indicate low expected probability, not impossibility.
Mickelson’s recent form gave bookmakers legitimate reasons to price him as an outsider. But a golfer with his major résumé still possessed skills capable of producing an exceptional week.
The question is never simply, “Can this golfer win?”
The better question is, “Is the available price larger than the golfer’s realistic chance of winning?”
- Course Fit Can Matter More Than Recent Results
Kiawah rewarded experience, patience, creativity and the ability to operate in changing wind.
Statistics from conventional PGA TOUR layouts did not capture every requirement of the Ocean Course.
Course-specific analysis therefore had additional value.
- Shop Around for Golf Odds
Reports placed Mickelson anywhere from approximately 200/1 to 250/1 or even longer depending on sportsbook and timing.
That difference is enormous.
A £10 winning bet at 200/1 produces £2,000 profit. At 250/1, it produces £2,500 profit.
The golfer is identical. Only the price changes.
Odds comparison can therefore be one of the simplest ways for bettors to improve potential returns without increasing their stake.
- Live Markets Reprice Information Extremely Quickly
Mickelson moved from around 200/1 before the tournament to approximately 12/1 after 36 holes and roughly 3/1 entering Sunday.
Waiting for more evidence dramatically increased confidence in Mickelson’s competitiveness—but destroyed most of the original price.
That is the fundamental trade-off in live betting: greater information normally comes with shorter odds.
- Leaderboard Position Is Not the Same as Win Probability
Koepka remained the final-round favorite despite trailing Mickelson.
Sportsbooks were considering far more than the scoreboard. Player quality, major experience, expected scoring distribution and the difficulty of protecting a lead all influenced the price.
The eventual result went against that market judgment, but the logic behind the pricing remains instructive.
Was Mickelson the Greatest PGA Championship Betting Upset?
It unquestionably ranks among the most memorable.
Golf Digest described Mickelson as the biggest underdog to win a men’s major in at least 16 years based on available historical pricing, noting that his pre-tournament odds exceeded 200/1 at some sportsbooks.
The historical significance amplified the betting story.
Mickelson was not an anonymous outsider suddenly producing a career week. He was one of the most accomplished golfers of his generation—but a player whom the betting market believed had moved beyond the period when major victories were realistic.
That is what made the outcome so extraordinary.
The market had not forgotten Mickelson’s talent. It had heavily discounted the probability that a 50-year-old ranked far below the leading contenders could sustain elite major-championship golf for 72 holes.
He did exactly that.
Final Verdict
Looking back, the 2021 PGA Championship betting market provided almost every lesson a golf bettor could ask for.
There was an obvious favorite in Rory McIlroy, a demanding course requiring more than raw power, major winners positioned throughout the odds board, dramatic live-market movements and ultimately a champion who had started the week at approximately 200/1 or longer.
Mickelson’s triumph should not be interpreted as evidence that randomly backing huge outsiders is a winning strategy.
The more useful conclusion is that golf is a high-variance sport in which even elite betting markets can assign extremely large prices to competitors who retain a genuine—if small—chance of winning.
It also demonstrated why bettors should consider course fit, major experience, market price and bookmaker differences rather than relying exclusively on recent form or world ranking.
Mickelson’s price tells the story beautifully.
Pre-tournament: roughly 200/1.
After 36 holes: roughly 12/1.
Before the final round: roughly 3/1.
Final result: PGA Champion.
For golf fans, it was history.
For bettors, it remains one of the clearest examples of how dramatically probabilities—and prices—can change during a major championship.
FAQs
Who won the 2021 PGA Championship?
Phil Mickelson won the 2021 PGA Championship at Kiawah Island’s Ocean Course with a four-round score of 282, six under par. He defeated Brooks Koepka and Louis Oosthuizen by two strokes.
What were Phil Mickelson’s odds to win the 2021 PGA Championship?
Mickelson was listed at approximately 200/1 in an archived William Hill market published immediately before the tournament. Other reports showed prices around 250/1 and, at some points or operators, even longer.
Who was favorite for the 2021 PGA Championship?
Rory McIlroy was the pre-tournament favorite at approximately 11/1 in several published odds boards. His previous victory at Kiawah Island in the 2012 PGA Championship and his recent Wells Fargo Championship win contributed to the market support.
What were Brooks Koepka’s odds?
Koepka was approximately 33/1 in one archived William Hill pre-tournament market. By Sunday morning, after moving to one shot behind Mickelson, he had shortened to approximately 3/2 and was the favorite to win.
How old was Phil Mickelson when he won?
Mickelson was 50 years old. His victory made him the oldest men’s major champion in golf history, surpassing Julius Boros’ previous record from the 1968 PGA Championship.
Where was the 2021 PGA Championship played?
The tournament was played at the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island Golf Resort in South Carolina. The championship course was listed at par 72 and 7,876 yards.
What was the winning score?
Mickelson finished at six under par with rounds of 70, 69, 70 and 73 for a total score of 282.
What is the biggest betting lesson from the 2021 PGA Championship?
The strongest lesson is that betting value and winning probability are not the same thing. Favorites have higher probabilities but shorter prices, while outsiders can occasionally become attractive when bookmakers significantly underestimate their chances. Mickelson’s movement from roughly 200/1 to around 3/1 over the course of the tournament illustrates how quickly new information can transform a golf betting market.
Responsible Gambling Note: Historical betting results should never be treated as a guarantee of future profits. Odds are designed to reflect uncertainty, and long-shot victories are rare by definition. Bet only with money you can afford to lose and follow the gambling laws and age requirements that apply where you live.
