FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Odds 2026 & Best Bets

Few prices on the board stand out more than Hideki Matsuyama at +3300 on the DraftKings snapshot.

Matsuyama is already a proven winner at TPC Southwind, having captured the 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship at 17-under. He also owns the best reported scoring average among this year’s entrants at the course: 67.25 over 20 rounds.

The current form is even more encouraging.

Matsuyama arrived in Memphis after a T7 at the Wyndham Championship, which was his third consecutive top-10 finish. His recent sequence also included finishes of fifth and third, giving him five consecutive top-15 results heading into the playoffs.

There is one legitimate concern: workload.

The FedEx St. Jude will be Matsuyama’s fifth consecutive tournament week. That is a demanding schedule, particularly ahead of four rounds in Memphis in August.

Still, +3300 compensates us for much of that uncertainty.

If Matsuyama were arriving after a week of rest, his combination of course history and current form would arguably justify a substantially shorter number.

Betting verdict: Excellent outright value at +3000 or better.

Strong Contender: Sam Burns to Win (+2000)

Sam Burns is another player whose underlying profile makes considerable sense for TPC Southwind.

His recent results include three top-five finishes over a five-start stretch, including runner-up at the U.S. Open and third place at The Open. He also ranked third in Strokes Gained: Putting and 12th in Strokes Gained: Total in the season statistics cited in this week’s GolfMagic preview.

That putting ability is particularly attractive.

When several elite ball strikers are separated by only a few shots heading into Sunday, converting opportunities on the greens can decide the tournament.

Burns also has genuine Southwind credentials.

His 67.80 scoring average over his last 20 rounds at the venue is fourth-best among the qualified players measured by Betfair, and he has recorded two top-five results at TPC Southwind in the last five editions.

At +2000, he is not as cheap as Matsuyama, but the combination of rest, putting and recent contention makes Burns one of the strongest challengers outside the top two.

Backing Scottie Scheffler is rarely a bad idea from a pure win-probability perspective.

The question is whether +445 represents enough value.

Scheffler enters the tournament first in the FedExCup standings, and his Southwind history is excellent despite never winning the event. BetMGM’s course-history analysis credits him with the second-most strokes gained among this year’s field at the venue, including consecutive top-four finishes.

He also owns a 67.64 scoring average across 22 measured Southwind rounds.

Scheffler’s most recent start before Memphis produced a runner-up finish at the 3M Open, meaning there is little reason to question his ability to contend.

Our hesitation comes entirely from price.

At +445, the implied probability is approximately 18.3% before considering sportsbook margin. That is an enormous number in a golf tournament containing nearly 70 elite players.

Scheffler can absolutely win.

But there is a meaningful difference between asking “Who is most likely to win?” and “Which player offers the best betting value?”

Scheffler is our answer to the first question. Fleetwood and Matsuyama are more attractive answers to the second.

Betting verdict: Most likely winner, but the outright price is difficult to chase.

Xander Schauffele (+1900): Another Player to Watch

Xander Schauffele deserves consideration near the top of the market.

He entered the playoffs directly after finishing second at the Rocket Classic, two strokes behind the winner. He also has excellent Southwind history, including a runner-up finish in the 2024 FedEx St. Jude Championship.

At +1900, however, the market is already respecting those positives.

For that reason, Fleetwood at a similar price and Matsuyama at a considerably larger price rank slightly higher on our card.

Schauffele remains an appealing option for top-five, top-10 and matchup markets if bettors can find favorable prices.

Longshot Pick: Justin Rose (+4800)

Defending champion Justin Rose provides an intriguing longshot angle.

Rose defeated J.J. Spaun in a playoff to win here in 2025. He followed that victory by winning the Farmers Insurance Open in 2026 and also recorded a T3 at the Masters and T10 at the PGA Championship this season.

Unlike Matsuyama, Rose enters Memphis refreshed.

He had a three-week break before beginning his title defense and told reporters that he hoped the rest would help him make a strong final push through the playoffs.

There are negatives. His most recent major appearance ended with a missed cut at The Open, and successfully defending a PGA Tour title is never easy.

Nevertheless, a golfer who won on this exact course 12 months ago and has already won elsewhere in 2026 is interesting around +4800.

Betting verdict: Viable small-stake longshot, particularly at 45/1 or longer.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Picks Summary

Our preferred 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship betting card looks like this:

Tommy Fleetwood +1950 — Best Bet

Elite Southwind history, excellent recent consistency and a price much larger than the favorites.

Hideki Matsuyama +3300 — Best Value

2024 champion, best recent Southwind scoring average in the field and three consecutive top-10 finishes entering Memphis. The only major concern is fatigue.

Sam Burns +2000 — Strong Contender

Outstanding current form, elite putting and multiple top-five finishes at TPC Southwind.

Justin Rose +4800 — Longshot

Defending champion with another PGA Tour victory already on his 2026 résumé.

Scottie Scheffler +445 — Most Likely Winner

Statistically and historically one of the strongest candidates, but the extremely short outright price reduces the appeal.

Why Shopping FedEx St. Jude Odds Matters

Golf may be the sport where comparing sportsbooks matters most.

Suppose one sportsbook offers Matsuyama at +2500 while another has +3300. A $100 winning bet returns $2,500 in profit at +2500 but $3,300 at +3300.

The golfer does not need to perform any differently.

Simply obtaining the better price increases the potential profit by $800.

We have already seen meaningful discrepancies in the 2026 FedEx St. Jude market. DraftKings was reported with McIlroy around +950 while BetMGM showed him at +1400 in another August 11 snapshot. Matsuyama was +3300 at DraftKings compared with +2500 at BetMGM.

For outright golf bets, always compare available legal sportsbooks before placing a wager.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Past Winners

Recent champions at TPC Southwind include:

The narrow range of winning scores reinforces the basic Southwind betting thesis: players need plenty of birdies, but avoiding doubles, penalties and poor approach shots remains essential.

A target somewhere around the mid-teens under par has consistently been enough to contend in the playoff-era editions.

FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Strategy

Because the FedEx St. Jude Championship features a limited field with no traditional 36-hole cut, bettors should think differently than they would at a normal PGA Tour event.

Every player who starts is scheduled to have four rounds to accumulate scoring opportunities.

That can make top-20 bets, head-to-head matchups, round markets and live betting especially interesting alongside outright wagers.

Rather than putting the entire bankroll on four or five outright selections, a more controlled approach is to choose one or two players to win and then use finishing-position or matchup markets for golfers whose consistency you trust more than their ability to close tournaments.

Course history also deserves more weight than usual here.

TPC Southwind has produced a group of repeat contenders. Matsuyama, Scheffler, Fleetwood, Burns, Cantlay and Morikawa all rank among the strongest measured scoring-average performers at the venue in recent seasons.

That does not guarantee future success, but it provides useful evidence that their games translate effectively to this particular course.

FAQs

Who is the favorite to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship?

Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite. DraftKings had him around +445 in its August 11 market, with Rory McIlroy second at approximately +950.

What is the best bet for the FedEx St. Jude Championship?

Our preferred outright wager is Tommy Fleetwood at approximately +1950 or better. His strong recent form and excellent history at TPC Southwind make him an attractive alternative to the short-priced favorites.

Who is the best value bet?

Hideki Matsuyama stands out if bettors can obtain +3000 or better. He won here in 2024, has the best reported Southwind scoring average among this year’s entrants and enters after three consecutive top-10 finishes.

Who won the FedEx St. Jude Championship in 2025?

Justin Rose won the 2025 tournament, defeating J.J. Spaun in a playoff.

Where is the FedEx St. Jude Championship played?

The tournament is played at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee, a par-70 course measuring 7,288 yards for the 2026 event.

How many players advance to the BMW Championship?

The top 50 players in the FedExCup standings after the FedEx St. Jude Championship advance to the BMW Championship.

Final Prediction: Who Wins the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship?

Scottie Scheffler deserves favorite status, but betting golf successfully is about price as much as probability.

At less than 5/1, Scheffler requires bettors to pay an enormous premium for his consistency.

Our preference is to move slightly further down the board.

Tommy Fleetwood is our best bet to win the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship, with Hideki Matsuyama offering the most attractive value at longer odds.

Fleetwood’s combination of current form, controlled ball striking and repeated success at TPC Southwind is difficult to overlook. Matsuyama, meanwhile, enters with one of the strongest combinations of course history and immediate form in the entire field.

Final 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship Picks

Best bet: Tommy Fleetwood +1950
Best value: Hideki Matsuyama +3300
Strong contender: Sam Burns +2000
Longshot: Justin Rose +4800
Most likely winner: Scottie Scheffler +445

The FedExCup Playoffs routinely produce pressure-filled Sunday golf, and TPC Southwind is capable of punishing even the smallest mistake. That makes price discipline especially important. Compare sportsbooks, avoid overloading the card with outright bets and remember that even the strongest golf selection can lose far more frequently than it wins.

Bet responsibly. Odds are subject to change, and no wager or betting strategy guarantees a profit.