Washington Commanders vs. Los Angeles Chargers Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips

The National Football League’s Week 5 slate features an intriguing interconference matchup between the Washington Commanders and the Los Angeles Chargers, scheduled for Sunday, October 5, 2025, at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET, with the game broadcast on CBS. This contest pits the NFC East’s Commanders, holding a 2-2 record through the first four weeks, against the AFC West-leading Chargers, who enter with a 3-1 mark. Both teams are navigating early-season challenges, including injuries and offensive adjustments, making this a pivotal game for playoff positioning aspirations.

The Commanders, under second-year head coach Dan Quinn, have shown flashes of potential, particularly on offense, where rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has emerged as a dual-threat playmaker. However, defensive inconsistencies and key absences could test their resilience on the road. Meanwhile, the Chargers, led by first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh, emphasize a balanced attack with a stout defense that ranks among the league’s best in points allowed. This game represents an opportunity for Los Angeles to solidify its standing in a competitive division while Washington seeks to build momentum following a mixed start.

We will examine team performances to date, injury updates, key matchups, statistical comparisons, current betting odds, expert insights, our prediction, and targeted betting tips. Our goal is to provide a thorough, data-driven perspective to inform your understanding of this matchup.

Team Overviews

Washington Commanders: A Promising Yet Inconsistent Start

The Washington Commanders have compiled a 2-2 record in the 2025 season, placing them second in the NFC East division. Offensively, they rank eighth in the league in points scored, averaging 26.8 points per game, while allowing 22.8 points on defense, which positions them 18th overall. Their passing game averages 184.3 yards per contest (25th in the NFL), but their rushing attack is a standout, ranking second with 154.8 yards per game. This ground-oriented approach has been bolstered by Daniels’ mobility and a committee of running backs, including Brian Robinson Jr., who has contributed significantly to their first-down conversions.

Defensively, the Commanders have recorded 29 first downs allowed, with a balanced split between rushing (105 yards allowed per game) and passing (74 completions against). They have forced five touchdowns against while scoring six of their own, indicating a unit capable of opportunistic plays but vulnerable to sustained drives. Key leaders include linebacker Frankie Luvu in tackles and defensive end Dorance Armstrong in sacks, though the secondary has struggled against elite quarterbacks.

Washington’s schedule has included wins over weaker opponents and losses to more established teams, highlighting areas for growth. Their 12-5 record and NFC Championship appearance in the prior season under general manager Adam Peters set high expectations, but adapting to Quinn’s schemes remains ongoing. With a historical 7-5 edge over the Chargers, including a 2-3 road record, the Commanders aim to leverage their rushing prowess to control the tempo.

Los Angeles Chargers: Building a Defensive Identity Under Harbaugh

The Los Angeles Chargers boast a 3-1 record, leading the AFC West and demonstrating early dominance on defense, where they rank fourth in points allowed at 17.8 per game. Offensively, they average 22.0 points (20th in the league), with a passing game yielding 261 yards per contest and a rushing attack at 92 yards (modest but improving). Quarterback Justin Herbert anchors the aerial assault, supported by receivers like Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen, who have combined for significant yardage.

Defensively, the Chargers excel in limiting opponents, allowing just 24 first downs on average, with strong performances against the run (4.7 yards per carry allowed) and pass (7.1 yards per attempt). Safety Derwin James Jr. and edge rusher Joey Bosa headline a unit that has forced turnovers and pressured quarterbacks effectively, contributing to their low points-against total. Harbaugh’s emphasis on physicality has translated into a team that grinds out victories, as evidenced by their 3-1 start in what marks their 66th overall season and tenth in Los Angeles.

The Chargers’ home games at SoFi Stadium have been high-scoring affairs, with the last five exceeding the total points line, suggesting an environment conducive to offensive explosions despite their defensive strength. Facing the Commanders for the first time in Week 5 historically, Los Angeles seeks to capitalize on Washington’s road vulnerabilities.

Injury Reports: Impact on Game Dynamics

Injuries play a critical role in NFL outcomes, and this matchup is no exception. For the Commanders, wide receiver Terry McLaurin has been ruled out due to a quad injury, a significant loss given his role as Daniels’ primary target. Fellow receiver Noah Brown is also sidelined with a groin issue, further depleting the passing options. Guard Sam Cosmi is out with a knee injury, potentially weakening the offensive line, while cornerback Mike Sainristil (knee) and linebacker Ale Kaho (concussion) are questionable, impacting the secondary. Quarterback Jayden Daniels, however, is expected to play after full participation in practice.

On the Chargers’ side, left tackle Joe Alt is doubtful with an ankle injury, which could expose Herbert to increased pressure. Safety Derwin James Jr. (hip) and tight end Will Dissly (knee) are questionable, alongside cornerback Tarheeb Still (ankle) and wide receiver Derius Davis (knee). These absences may force adjustments in protection schemes and coverage, particularly against Washington’s mobile quarterback.

Key Matchups to Watch

Several individual and unit battles will likely determine the game’s flow. Foremost is the quarterback duel between Jayden Daniels and Justin Herbert. Daniels, with 433 passing yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions through two starts, plus 85 rushing yards, poses a multifaceted threat. Herbert, boasting 1,063 yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions over four games, brings veteran poise but has been sacked 12 times. Daniels’ return from a minor issue amplifies his potential to exploit the Chargers’ pass defense, which, while strong, has vulnerabilities without key players.

Another critical matchup involves the Commanders’ rushing attack against the Chargers’ run defense. Washington’s 154.8 rushing yards per game will test Los Angeles’ front, which allows 4.7 yards per carry. With Joe Alt potentially out, the Chargers’ offensive line faces pressure from Washington’s edge rushers like Dorance Armstrong.

Additionally, the absence of McLaurin shifts focus to receivers like Dyami Brown, challenging the Chargers’ secondary, including questionable players like James. Ladd McConkey’s role for Los Angeles could be pivotal if Herbert targets him amid protection issues.

Statistical Comparison

A side-by-side analysis reveals contrasting styles:

These figures underscore Washington’s offensive explosiveness versus the Chargers’ defensive efficiency. The Commanders’ superior rushing could dictate possession, but Los Angeles’ ability to limit scores may keep the game low-scoring.

Current Odds and Lines

As of October 3, 2025, betting lines favor the Chargers. The spread is Los Angeles -2.5 to -3, with moneyline odds at Commanders +130 to +134 and Chargers -155. The over/under total ranges from 47.5 to 48.5 points. These lines reflect the Chargers’ home advantage and defensive edge, though sharp money has moved slightly toward Washington due to injuries.

Betting trends show the Chargers at 2-1-1 against the spread (ATS), with games trending over, while the Commanders are 2-2 ATS. The opening line was Chargers -3.0 with a total of 47.0, indicating modest adjustments.

Expert Predictions

Industry experts lean toward the Chargers but with caveats. USA Today predicts a Los Angeles win, citing home-field advantage. Sports Illustrated favors the Chargers covering the spread at home. Pickswise projects Chargers -2.5, emphasizing defensive matchups. NBC Sports experts like Drew Dinsick and Trysta Krick advocate for the under, predicting a total below 48.5 due to offensive line concerns and strong defenses. Bold predictions include Daniels exploiting Chargers’ weaknesses but ultimately falling short.

Our Prediction

Based on the available data, we predict a Chargers victory, 24-20. Washington’s rushing attack will keep the game competitive, but the loss of McLaurin and potential secondary issues will hinder their scoring. The Chargers’ defense, even with injuries, should contain Daniels sufficiently, while Herbert exploits mismatches. Expect a close contest decided in the fourth quarter, with Los Angeles covering the -2.5 spread and the total going under 48.

Betting Tips

Spread Bet: Chargers -2.5 (-110)

The Chargers’ defensive ranking and home trends support covering the modest spread. Washington’s road struggles (2-3 historically against Los Angeles) and receiver absences tilt this in favor of the hosts. BetMGM offers this at -105, providing value.

Over/Under: Under 48 (-110)

Both teams’ defenses suggest a lower-scoring affair. Chargers games average under recent totals when facing balanced offenses, and expert consensus aligns with this. OddsShark lists this at competitive odds.

Player Props

• Justin Herbert Over 225.5 Passing Yards (-115): With Washington’s secondary potentially compromised, Herbert should exceed this mark, as seen in his 1,063-yard start.
• Jayden Daniels Under 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110): The Chargers’ run defense limits mobile QBs, and Daniels’ recent outputs suggest caution.
• Quentin Johnston Over 4.5 Receptions (+100): As a key target, especially if McConkey draws coverage, this offers plus-money value.

Always consider responsible gambling practices and shop lines across sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel for optimal value.

Conclusion

The Washington Commanders vs. Los Angeles Chargers matchup in Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season promises a clash of emerging talents and strategic adjustments. While the Commanders’ offensive versatility poses challenges, the Chargers’ defensive prowess and home advantage position them for success. Bettors should monitor final injury reports, but current trends favor Los Angeles in a controlled victory. This game underscores the NFL’s parity, where execution and health often decide outcomes. For further updates, consult reliable sources as kickoff approaches.