Last Updated on August 9, 2026 by Maurya
The Australian Open 2021 betting review tells a fascinating story. At first glance, the tournament appears to have been a victory for the bookmakers’ favourites: Novak Djokovic won the men’s singles championship, while Naomi Osaka lifted the women’s trophy.
Look beneath those headline results, however, and the tournament was packed with betting drama.
There was Novak Djokovic battling an abdominal problem before eventually dominating the final. Rafael Nadal surrendered a two-set lead against Stefanos Tsitsipas. World No.1 Ashleigh Barty lost after appearing to have complete control of her quarterfinal. Qualifier Aslan Karatsev produced one of the most unexpected Grand Slam runs in modern men’s tennis, while Osaka survived two match points against Garbiñe Muguruza before going on to win the championship.
The tournament was also played under extraordinary circumstances. The Australian Open was delayed until February because arriving players had to undergo quarantine, while Melbourne entered a five-day COVID-19 lockdown during the event that temporarily removed spectators from Melbourne Park.
For bettors, the 2021 Australian Open was therefore a perfect demonstration of an important principle: correctly identifying the eventual champion does not necessarily mean the betting journey was predictable.
Australian Open 2021
| Category | 2021 Result |
| Men’s Singles Champion | Novak Djokovic |
| Men’s Runner-Up | Daniil Medvedev |
| Men’s Final Score | 7-5, 6-2, 6-2 |
| Women’s Singles Champion | Naomi Osaka |
| Women’s Runner-Up | Jennifer Brady |
| Women’s Final Score | 6-4, 6-3 |
| Major Men’s Surprise | Aslan Karatsev reaching the semifinal as a qualifier |
| Major Women’s Surprise | Ashleigh Barty losing to Karolina Muchova |
| Tournament Dates | 8-21 February 2021 |
| Venue | Melbourne Park, Melbourne |
Djokovic defeated Medvedev in straight sets to capture his ninth Australian Open championship and 18th Grand Slam singles title at the time. Osaka defeated Brady to claim her second Australian Open crown and fourth major title.
What Did the Australian Open 2021 Betting Market Look Like Before the Tournament?
Looking back at historical betting markets requires some caution. Odds changed between bookmakers and moved continuously as money entered the market. For that reason, any historical price should be connected to a specific sportsbook and point in time rather than treated as a universal closing price.
On 7 February 2021, CBS Sports reported that William Hill had Novak Djokovic at +110 to win the men’s tournament. Rafael Nadal, Daniil Medvedev and defending US Open champion Dominic Thiem completed the leading group of contenders.
A price of +110 is equivalent to decimal odds of approximately 2.10, representing a raw implied probability of around 47.6% before adjusting for bookmaker margin.
That was an exceptionally strong market position in a 128-player Grand Slam field, but it made sense. Djokovic had already won the Australian Open eight times and entered the 2021 tournament as the two-time defending champion.
Women’s Australian Open 2021 Outright Odds
The women’s market was significantly more open.
Archived William Hill prices published before the tournament had Naomi Osaka as the favourite at +500, with Australian world No.1 Ashleigh Barty at +650. Serena Williams and Aryna Sabalenka were listed as joint third choices at +900.
| Player | Historical Pre-Tournament Odds | Approx. Decimal Odds |
| Naomi Osaka | +500 | 6.00 |
| Ashleigh Barty | +650 | 7.50 |
| Serena Williams | +900 | 10.00 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | +900 | 10.00 |
From a futures-betting perspective, Osaka ultimately delivered an excellent result for those who backed the favourite at the available pre-tournament price.
But getting there was far from straightforward.
Men’s Australian Open 2021 Betting Review
Novak Djokovic: Favourite Justifies His Price
Djokovic’s victory ultimately confirmed the pre-tournament market’s assessment, but anyone holding a Djokovic futures ticket experienced several uncomfortable moments.
His most serious scare came against Taylor Fritz in the third round. Djokovic appeared to suffer an abdominal injury but survived a dramatic five-set contest, winning 7-6(1), 6-4, 3-6, 4-6, 6-2. The match unfolded on the night Melbourne’s lockdown began, with spectators required to leave Rod Laver Arena before play was completed.
For betting markets, an injury to a tournament favourite creates significant uncertainty. Futures prices can lengthen, while opponents suddenly become more attractive in match markets.
Djokovic nevertheless continued.
He eventually defeated Alexander Zverev in four sets in the quarterfinal before handling qualifier Aslan Karatsev in straight sets in the semifinal. By the time the championship match arrived, Djokovic’s physical condition appeared substantially less concerning. Australian Open reporting noted that he experienced no pain during his semifinal victory.
Rafael Nadal vs Stefanos Tsitsipas: A Live-Betting Rollercoaster
One of the clearest examples of why live tennis betting can change dramatically was Nadal’s quarterfinal against Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Nadal won the opening two sets convincingly and appeared to be heading toward another Australian Open semifinal. Tsitsipas instead produced a remarkable comeback, winning 3-6, 2-6, 7-6(4), 6-4, 7-5.
Pre-tournament quarter betting had made Nadal a +110 favourite to win his section, with Tsitsipas at +333.
Once Nadal moved two sets ahead, any pre-match assessment of the contest would have shifted enormously.
The match demonstrated one of the realities of best-of-five-set tennis: a dominant opening hour does not necessarily predict the final result. Fitness, serving efficiency, momentum and physical wear can become increasingly important as matches stretch toward four or five hours.
Aslan Karatsev Delivers the Men’s Cinderella Run
For long-shot and underdog bettors, Aslan Karatsev became the story of the tournament.
Karatsev arrived in Australia as a 27-year-old qualifier making his Grand Slam main-draw debut. He proceeded to reach the semifinals.
Among his breakthrough victories was a dominant 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 third-round win over eighth seed Diego Schwartzman in which Karatsev struck 50 winners.
He eventually became the first man in the Open Era to reach a Grand Slam semifinal on his main-draw debut. His run also demonstrated the potential danger of automatically dismissing qualifiers purely because of ranking.
Qualifiers may carry a lower ranking, but they also arrive with competitive matches already completed. In some circumstances, that can make them particularly dangerous against seeded players still adjusting to conditions.
Karatsev’s 2021 Australian Open performance remains a textbook example of why bettors analysing early-round Grand Slam matches should consider recent form, qualifying performance and matchup characteristics alongside ATP ranking.
Djokovic vs Medvedev: 2021 Australian Open Men’s Final Betting Review
The men’s final offered a particularly interesting market.
Djokovic possessed unmatched Australian Open experience, but Daniil Medvedev entered the championship match on an extraordinary winning streak.
Medvedev had won the Paris Masters and ATP Finals at the end of 2020 before helping Russia capture the ATP Cup. He entered the final having won 20 consecutive matches, including numerous victories over elite opponents.
Bookmakers therefore priced the final much more competitively than Djokovic’s Melbourne record might suggest.
William Hill listed:
| Player | Final Moneyline |
| Novak Djokovic | -118 |
| Daniil Medvedev | +100 |
The total-games line was listed at 39.5.
In implied-probability terms, -118 corresponds to roughly 54.1%, while +100 represents 50%. The combined figure above 100% reflects the bookmaker margin.
Those prices suggested a competitive final.
The actual match was anything but.
After a relatively tight first set, Djokovic completely took control and won 7-5, 6-2, 6-2. He secured his ninth Australian Open title and stopped Medvedev’s winning streak in emphatic fashion.
For match bettors, Djokovic moneyline backers were rewarded. The one-sided nature of the final also made lower total-games positions considerably more successful than anyone anticipating a long five-set battle.
The broader lesson was clear: recent form matters, but venue-specific excellence and Grand Slam final experience can still deserve substantial weighting.
Women’s Australian Open 2021 Betting Review
Osaka Was the Favourite—but Nearly Didn’t Reach the Quarterfinals
Naomi Osaka began the tournament at approximately +500 in the referenced William Hill market, making her the outright favourite.
Eventually, that price looked excellent.
Yet one match completely changed the complexion of her championship.
Facing former major champion Garbiñe Muguruza in the fourth round, Osaka lost the opening set and later found herself facing two match points at 4-5 in the deciding set.
She saved both.
Osaka then completed a superb 4-6, 6-4, 7-5 comeback.
For outright bettors, it was the critical moment of the women’s tournament. A +500 futures ticket that ultimately became a winner came within two points of being eliminated before the quarterfinals.
The match also illustrates an important distinction between betting result and betting process. Osaka ultimately proved to be the correct outright selection, but her victory was not inevitable simply because she started as favourite.
Osaka Accelerates After Escaping Muguruza
The Muguruza match appeared to strengthen Osaka rather than weaken her.
She defeated Hsieh Su-Wei 6-2, 6-2 in just 68 minutes in the quarterfinal, hitting 24 winners and losing only two points behind her first serve.
Next came one of the tournament’s most anticipated matches: Osaka against Serena Williams.
Williams was chasing a 24th Grand Slam singles title. Osaka, however, was already riding a long winning streak and had established herself as arguably the most dangerous hard-court player in women’s tennis.
William Hill’s semifinal market opened Osaka at -155 and Williams at +135, according to archived sportsbook reporting.
Osaka justified favouritism with a straight-sets victory and advanced to face Jennifer Brady.
Ashleigh Barty’s Quarterfinal Collapse Changes the Women’s Market
Home favourite Ashleigh Barty entered the tournament as one of the leading outright contenders and remained strongly positioned entering the second week.
Her quarterfinal against Karolina Muchova appeared to be going entirely according to expectations.
Barty won the first set 6-1 and moved 2-0 ahead in the second.
Then everything changed.
Muchova took a medical timeout after reporting dizziness. Following the interruption, the Czech player dramatically improved while Barty’s level dropped. Muchova eventually won 1-6, 6-3, 6-2, taking 12 of the final 15 games.
From a betting perspective, the match demonstrates the danger of assuming a dominant favourite has already won.
Tennis has no match clock. Until the final point is completed, momentum can reverse sharply.
Barty’s elimination also transformed the women’s outright market by removing one of Osaka’s biggest potential obstacles from the opposite half of the draw.
Jennifer Brady Offers an Important Draw-Based Betting Lesson
Jennifer Brady entered the Australian Open as the 22nd seed rather than one of the leading outright favourites.
Yet the draw opened up effectively for the American.
She defeated Jessica Pegula 4-6, 6-2, 6-1 in the quarterfinal before overcoming Muchova 6-4, 3-6, 6-4 in the semifinal. Australian Open analysis noted that Brady reached her first Grand Slam final without having to defeat a top-25 ranked opponent along the way.
This highlights why tournament bettors should reassess futures markets after each round.
An outright price reflects more than a player’s raw talent. It also incorporates the likely path through the draw.
When high-ranked players are eliminated from one section, the probability of the surviving players reaching later rounds can change considerably.
Osaka vs Brady: Women’s Final Betting Review
By the championship match, bookmakers had made Osaka a substantial favourite.
Historical prices differed depending on sportsbook and timing. William Hill was reported as offering Osaka -550 and Brady +425, while an earlier DraftKings market listed Osaka at -435 and Brady at +330.
That difference is a useful reminder that line shopping matters. Betting odds are not identical across every sportsbook, and prices also change as the market reacts to new information and betting volume.
Osaka delivered another convincing performance.
She defeated Brady 6-4, 6-3 in 77 minutes, completing the tournament with her fourth Grand Slam singles championship.
Osaka finished her run having dropped only one set—the opening set against Muguruza—and extended her winning streak to 21 matches.
From a betting perspective, Osaka was therefore the outstanding women’s futures result: the pre-tournament favourite survived her biggest scare and then became increasingly dominant as the tournament progressed.
Biggest Australian Open 2021 Betting Upsets
Several results stand out when reviewing the tournament from a betting perspective.
- Karolina Muchova Defeats Ashleigh Barty
Barty looked almost untouchable early in their quarterfinal but lost after leading 6-1, 2-0. The dramatic momentum reversal made it one of the tournament’s defining upsets.
- Stefanos Tsitsipas Comes Back Against Rafael Nadal
Recovering from two sets down against Nadal in a Grand Slam is extraordinarily difficult. Tsitsipas did exactly that and eliminated the No.2 seed in five sets.
- Aslan Karatsev Reaches the Semifinals
Karatsev’s progression from qualifying to the final four represented the deepest men’s long-shot run of the tournament and one of its most unexpected stories.
- Defending Champion Sofia Kenin Exits Early
Sofia Kenin arrived as the defending women’s champion but was eliminated in the second round by Kaia Kanepi, another reminder that previous-year results should never be treated as guarantees of current form.
- Djokovic Survives His Injury Scare
Djokovic’s five-set escape against Fritz created enormous uncertainty around the men’s title market. Bettors who continued backing Djokovic were eventually rewarded, but the injury demonstrated how quickly futures assessments can change during a Grand Slam.
How COVID-19 Affected Australian Open 2021 Betting Analysis
The 2021 tournament cannot be properly reviewed without acknowledging its unusual environment.
Players travelling to Australia were subject to 14 days of quarantine, with the delayed tournament beginning on 8 February. Some competitors faced stricter isolation conditions depending on exposure circumstances during travel.
Then, during the tournament, Melbourne entered a five-day snap lockdown.
The Australian Open continued, but matches were temporarily played without spectators. Fans were allowed to return from 18 February, with crowds capped at 7,477 per session at that stage.
These circumstances mattered to betting analysis because preparation, fitness and match environment were less uniform than at a normal Grand Slam.
Jennifer Brady’s run was especially notable because she had endured hard quarantine yet still reached the final.
Five Betting Lessons From the 2021 Australian Open
- Do Not Automatically Oppose Short-Priced Favourites
Some bettors instinctively look for underdogs because favourites appear too obvious.
Australian Open 2021 showed why that approach can be dangerous.
Djokovic was the men’s pre-tournament favourite and won. Osaka was the women’s favourite and won. The market’s top choices were ultimately correct.
The question should not simply be whether a player is a favourite. The important question is whether the implied probability represented by the available odds is higher or lower than your own realistic assessment.
- Tournament History Can Matter
Djokovic’s Australian Open record was extraordinary even before 2021.
Backing him purely because he had won eight previous titles would have been overly simplistic, but Melbourne-specific performance was still highly relevant. His ability to solve opponents on Rod Laver Arena ultimately outweighed concerns surrounding his injury and Medvedev’s spectacular pre-final form.
- Never Ignore the Draw
Brady’s route to the women’s final demonstrated how dramatically a Grand Slam draw can open.
An outright price that appears unattractive before round one may become interesting once high seeds disappear from a particular quarter or half.
Bettors should therefore reassess futures prices after every round instead of relying solely on their pre-tournament rankings.
- Live Tennis Markets Can Move Extremely Quickly
Barty led Muchova 6-1, 2-0 and lost.
Nadal led Tsitsipas by two sets and lost.
Osaka faced two match points against Muguruza and won the entire tournament.
Those three matches alone illustrate why tennis is particularly suited to dynamic in-play markets—but they also show the danger of treating momentum as certainty.
- Rankings Do Not Tell the Whole Story
Karatsev entered through qualifying yet reached the semifinal.
Rankings are useful, but they are backward-looking measures. They do not always fully capture rapid improvement, current confidence, favourable conditions or a player’s immediate match fitness.
Was the Australian Open 2021 Betting Market Accurate?
Broadly speaking, yes at the top, but not throughout the draw.
The two outright favourites identified in the archived markets—Djokovic and Osaka—both became champions. That is a strong result for the pre-tournament market.
However, significant surprises occurred below them.
Karatsev reaching the men’s semifinals was extremely difficult to foresee. Barty’s quarterfinal defeat removed one of the leading women’s contenders. Nadal’s loss after winning the first two sets demonstrated that even elite players can become vulnerable within a single match.
The tournament therefore produced an unusual combination: predictable champions surrounded by highly unpredictable pathways.
That distinction is arguably the biggest takeaway from an Australian Open 2021 betting review.
Australian Open 2021 Betting Review FAQ
Who won the 2021 Australian Open men’s singles title?
Novak Djokovic defeated Daniil Medvedev 7-5, 6-2, 6-2 in the final to win his ninth Australian Open championship and 18th Grand Slam singles title at that point in his career.
Who won the women’s Australian Open in 2021?
Naomi Osaka defeated Jennifer Brady 6-4, 6-3 to claim her second Australian Open title and fourth Grand Slam championship.
Who was favourite to win the men’s 2021 Australian Open?
Novak Djokovic was listed as the pre-tournament favourite at +110 with William Hill in an archived market reported immediately before the tournament.
Who was favourite to win the women’s 2021 Australian Open?
Naomi Osaka was the favourite at approximately +500, ahead of Ashleigh Barty at +650 in the referenced William Hill futures market.
What were the Djokovic vs Medvedev final odds?
William Hill listed Djokovic at -118 and Medvedev at +100 before the men’s final, making Djokovic only a narrow betting favourite.
What were the Osaka vs Brady final odds?
Prices varied by sportsbook and timing. One William Hill market had Osaka at -550 and Brady at +425, while an earlier DraftKings market listed Osaka at -435 and Brady at +330.
What was the biggest surprise of Australian Open 2021?
There were several candidates, but qualifier Aslan Karatsev reaching the men’s semifinals was arguably the tournament’s biggest long-shot story. On the women’s side, Karolina Muchova’s comeback victory over world No.1 Ashleigh Barty was among the most significant upsets.
Final Verdict
The Australian Open 2021 betting markets ultimately got the most important selections right.
Novak Djokovic was the men’s favourite and became champion. Naomi Osaka was the women’s favourite and became champion.
But simply looking at those two results hides almost everything that made the tournament interesting from a betting perspective.
Djokovic survived injury concerns and a five-set scare. Osaka came within two points of elimination. Nadal surrendered a two-set advantage. Barty lost after dominating the beginning of her quarterfinal. Karatsev emerged from qualifying and reached the final four.
The clearest lesson is that successful tennis analysis requires more than rankings and famous names.
Surface performance, recent form, fitness, tournament history, draw strength, serving and returning numbers, matchup dynamics and changing conditions all deserve consideration. Futures bettors should also continue reassessing the draw rather than assuming the circumstances that existed before round one will remain relevant two weeks later.
Australian Open 2021 was therefore a particularly instructive tournament: the favourites eventually won, but nearly everything between the opening round and the championship trophies reminded bettors why Grand Slam tennis remains so unpredictable.
