Spain will hold a general election on July 23, 2023, to elect the 15th Cortes Generales of the Kingdom of Spain. All 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies and 208 of 266 seats in the Senate will be up for grabs. The election is expected to be a close contest between the left-wing coalition led by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and the right-wing bloc headed by Alberto Nunez Feijoo.
In this article, we will look at the background, the main parties, the opinion polls, the betting odds and some tips for betting on the Spanish election.
The current government was formed after the November 2019 election, which resulted in a hung parliament. The Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) and Unidas Podemos, the first such nationwide left-wing coalition since the times of the Second Spanish Republic, managed to secure a confidence vote with the support of several regional parties.
However, the government’s tenure was quickly overshadowed by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, along with its political and economic consequences. These included the severe global recession resulting from the extensive lockdown measures implemented to curb the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, as well as the economic impact of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.
On the right side of the political spectrum, the People’s Party (PP) underwent a leadership change in February 2022, following an internal push by Galician and Madrilenian presidents, Alberto Nunez Feijoo and Isabel Diaz Ayuso, to remove party leader Pablo Casado. Since Feijoo’s accession, PP has led opinion polls and finished first in the regional and local elections of 28 May 2023. Far-right Vox has been open to support the PP in a hung parliament in exchange for government participation and programatic concessions. The liberal Citizens party, once a leading force but having lost most of its support since 2019, decided not to run in this election, focusing its efforts on the 2024 European Parliament election instead.
Despite speculation about an early election , Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez consistently expressed his intention to complete the legislature as scheduled in 2023. He had initially set a tentative election date for December 2023, near the conclusion of the Spanish presidency of the Council of the European Union. However, the poor results of the left-wing bloc in the May regional and local elections, with losses to the PP and Vox in all but three regions, led to a surprise early dissolution of the Cortes in what was described as a gamble by Sanchez to wrong-foot the opposition.
|Party||Leader||Ideology||Seats in Congress||Seats in Senate|
|PSOE||Pedro Sanchez||Social democracy||120||113|
|PP||Alberto Nunez Feijoo||Conservatism||88||97|
|Podemos Sumar||Ione Belarra & Yolanda Diaz||Democratic socialism||36||8|
|ERC||Gabriel Rufian||Catalan republicanism||13||11|
Other parties include:
|Polling firm||Date||Sample||PP||PSOE||Vox||Podemos Sumar||ERC||Others|
|Sigma Dos||5-7 Jun||1,200||30.5%||23.2%||14.8%||10.7%||3.4%||17.4%|
|NC Report||2-5 Jun||1,000||30.2%||23.8%||15.4%||10.5%||3.7%||16.4%|
|DYM/Cadena SER||1-4 Jun||1,000||29.6%||24.7%||14.9%||11.0%||3.6%||16.2%|
The average of these polls gives the following seat projection for the Congress of Deputies:
The average of these polls gives the following seat projection for the Senate:
The betting odds for the Spanish election reflect the opinion polls, with the PP being the clear favourite to win the most seats and form the next government. According to the latest odds from Gambling.com, Feijoo is 3/10 to be the next prime minister, while Sanchez is 5/4. This implies a 73.3% chance for Feijoo and a 44.4% chance for Sanchez.
The odds for the most seats are also in favour of the PP, with 1/5 compared to 7/2 for the PSOE. This implies an 83.3% chance for the PP and a 22.2% chance for the PSOE.
The odds for the majority are more balanced, with 11/10 for no overall majority, 6/4 for a PP majority and 9/2 for a PSOE majority. This implies a 47.6% chance for no overall majority, a 40% chance for a PP majority and a 18.2% chance for a PSOE majority.
The odds for the coalition are also interesting, with 6/4 for a PP-Vox coalition, 9/4 for a PSOE-Podemos Sumar coalition, 5/1 for a PP-ERC coalition and 8/1 for a PSOE-ERC coalition. This implies a 40% chance for a PP-Vox coalition, a 30.8% chance for a PSOE-Podemos Sumar coalition, a 16.7% chance for a PP-ERC coalition and a 11.1% chance for a PSOE-ERC coalition.
Betting on the Spanish election can be exciting and profitable, but also risky and unpredictable. Here are some tips to help you make informed and smart bets:
The Spanish election of 2023 is shaping up to be one of the most exciting and competitive in recent history. The outcome will have significant implications not only for Spain but also for Europe and the world. Betting on the election can be a fun and rewarding way to participate in this historic event, but it also requires careful analysis and strategy. By following our guide and tips, you can increase your chances of making successful bets and enjoying this thrilling political spectacle.
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