Nice vs. Roma prediction, odds & betting tips

Posted on September 22, 2025 by author in Football

The UEFA Europa League is back in full swing for the 2025/26 season, and one of the most anticipated fixtures in the league phase is the clash between French side OGC Nice and Italian giants AS Roma. Set to take place on September 24, 2025, at the Allianz Riviera in Nice, France, this match promises to be a tactical battle between two teams looking to make a strong start in Europe’s second-tier competition. With both clubs boasting rich histories, talented squads, and recent form that suggests a close contest, fans and bettors alike are eager for insights into predictions, odds, and betting tips.

We’ll dive deep into everything you need to know about Nice vs. Roma. From team form and head-to-head records to key player analysis, injury updates, statistical breakdowns, and expert predictions, we’ll cover it all. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor searching for value in the odds or a casual fan wanting to understand the matchup better, this SEO-optimized article will equip you with the knowledge to make informed decisions. Let’s break it down step by step, ensuring you get the most out of your Nice vs. Roma betting experience.

UEFA Europa League 2025/26 League Phase

Before we get into the specifics of Nice vs. Roma, it’s worth setting the stage with some background on the competition. The UEFA Europa League has undergone changes in recent years, with the league phase replacing the traditional group stage. This format sees 36 teams play eight matches each (four home, four away) against different opponents, with the top eight advancing directly to the round of 16 and others entering playoffs.

OGC Nice, representing Ligue 1, qualified for the Europa League after a solid domestic campaign last season, finishing in the top half of the table. They enter this match ranked 21st in the overall Europa League standings based on coefficients, but their home form could be a game-changer. AS Roma, from Serie A, are no strangers to European success, having reached the final in 2022 and consistently performing well in continental competitions. They sit at 29th in the rankings but bring a wealth of experience, including two-time runner-up status in the tournament’s history.

This matchup is particularly intriguing because both teams are transitioning under their respective managers. Nice, led by Franck Haise, emphasize a possession-based style with quick transitions, while Roma’s Ivan Juric favors a more pragmatic, counter-attacking approach. The clash of styles could lead to an open game or a cagey affair, depending on how each side adapts.

Recent Form

Form is king in football predictions, and both teams have shown mixed results leading into this Europa League opener. Let’s start with the hosts, OGC Nice.

OGC Nice’s Recent Performances

Nice have had a rollercoaster start to the 2025/26 Ligue 1 season, sitting in 8th place after a handful of matches. Their recent form reads LLWLWL across all competitions, indicating inconsistency but also the ability to bounce back. In their last outing on September 20, 2025, they suffered a heavy 4-1 defeat away to Brest, exposing defensive vulnerabilities. Prior to that, they secured a gritty 1-0 home win over Nantes on September 13, thanks to a solid defensive display. Earlier losses to Havre AC (3-1) and Toulouse (0-1) were offset by a convincing 3-1 victory against AJ Auxerre.

At home, Nice have been more reliable, winning two of their last three Ligue 1 matches at the Allianz Riviera. Their attack has relied on quick wing play, but conceding goals has been a concern— they’ve let in at least one in four of their last six games. Statistically, Nice average 1.5 goals scored per game in recent outings, with a possession average of 55%. Their expected goals (xG) in Ligue 1 stands at around 1.2 per match, suggesting room for improvement in finishing.

Key to their form is the integration of new signings and the return of players from injury. Despite some setbacks, Nice’s home crowd could provide the edge needed against Roma.

AS Roma’s Recent Performances

Roma, on the other hand, have shown resilience in Serie A, with a form guide of WWWLW. Their most recent victory came in the Derby della Capitale on September 21, 2025, where they edged out Lazio 1-0, thanks to a goal from outcast-turned-hero Lorenzo Pellegrini. This win followed a disappointing 0-1 home loss to Torino on September 14, but prior to that, they secured back-to-back 1-0 victories against Pisa (away) and Bologna (home).

Away from home, Roma have been impressive, winning three of their last three road games across competitions, including preseason friendlies. They average 1.2 goals per game but boast a stingy defense, conceding just 0.6 on average in recent matches. Their xG against is low at 0.8 per game, highlighting Juric’s organizational prowess. Roma’s counter-attacks have been lethal, with quick transitions involving wing-backs and forwards.

Overall, Roma enter this match with momentum from the derby win, but their away form in Europe has been spotty in past seasons. They’ll look to capitalize on Nice’s defensive lapses.

Head-to-Head Record

Historically, Nice and Roma have rarely crossed paths, making this Europa League encounter feel fresh and unpredictable. According to records, the two teams have met only once before, in a friendly or preseason game that ended in a 1-1 draw. In that match, both sides scored, averaging 2.0 goals per game in their limited H2H history.

This lack of prior competitive matchs adds an element of uncertainty. Nice have never beaten Roma, and vice versa, but the draw suggests parity. In broader terms, French teams have a 45% win rate against Italian sides in European competitions over the last decade, while Italian clubs hold a slight edge in away games (38% wins).

For bettors, the H2H points toward a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 goals occurring in their sole match. However, current form could override this, given both teams’ recent goal involvements.

Key Players to Watch in Nice vs. Roma

Individual brilliance often decides tight European matches. Here are the standout players from each side who could influence the outcome.

OGC Nice Key Players

Jérémie Boga (Forward): The Ivorian winger has been Nice’s spark, scoring 2 goals in 4 Ligue 1 appearances this season. His dribbling and pace could exploit Roma’s flanks. Boga averages 2.5 key passes per game and has an xG of 0.4 per match.
Terem Moffi (Striker): Leading the line, Moffi is a physical presence with 1 goal so far. His hold-up play is crucial for Nice’s transitions, and he thrives at home.
Jonathan Clauss (Wing-Back): The French international provides width and crosses, with 1 assist in recent games. His defensive work rate will be tested against Roma’s attackers.

Nice’s midfield, anchored by Hicham Boudaoui, offers energy, but they’ll need to control possession to limit Roma’s counters.

AS Roma Key Players

Lorenzo Pellegrini (Midfielder): Fresh off his derby winner, Pellegrini is Roma’s captain and creative hub. With 1 goal and strong passing (85% accuracy), he’s key in set-pieces.
Matìas Soulé (Forward): The young Argentine has 1 goal this season and brings flair. His partnership with Evan Ferguson could be deadly on the break.
Bryan Cristante (Midfielder): A box-to-box presence, Cristante’s tackling (2.5 per game) and aerial ability make him vital in midfield battles.

Roma’s defense, led by Gianluca Mancini, has been solid, but they’ll miss Paulo Dybala’s creativity due to injury.

Injury News and Team Updates for September 2025

Injuries can make or break predictions, and both teams have concerns heading into September 24.

OGC Nice Injury Report

Nice are dealing with several absences:

Moïse Bombito (Shin injury) – Expected back soon, potentially available.
Youssouf Ndayishimiye (Cruciate ligament injury) – Out until late 2025.
Mohamed Abdelmonem (Cruciate ligament tear) – Long-term absentee.
Tanguy Ndombélé (Pubalgia/Hernia) – Late September return.
Ali Abdi (Groin/Pelvic injury) – Late September, doubtful.
Momo Cho (Unknown) – Late September.

Canadian defender Bombito is set to return to training after the international break, providing a boost. Dante is ruled out, but Mohamed Ali-Cho could feature. Expected lineup (3-4-2-1): Diouf; Bombito, Bah, Oppong; Clauss, Boudaoui, Vanhoutte, Bard; Diop, Boga; Moffi.

AS Roma Injury Report

Roma’s squad is hit harder, especially in attack:

Paulo Dybala (Hamstring/Leg injury) – Out for 2 weeks, missing this match.
Leon Bailey (Muscle injury) – Late September, unlikely.
Wesley (Muscle injury) – September return, doubtful.
Mario Hermoso (Muscle fatigue) – Questionable.

Despite these, Roma have depth. Expected lineup (3-5-2): Svilar; Hermoso, Mancini, NDicka; Rensch, Pellegrini, Cristante, Koné, Angeliño; Soulé, Ferguson.

These injuries tilt the balance slightly toward Nice at home, as Roma lose key attacking threats.

Statistical Analysis and Trends for Nice vs. Roma

Diving into the numbers provides deeper insights for betting tips.

Goals Trends: Nice’s matches have seen over 2.5 goals in 50% of their last 6 games, while Roma’s have been under 2.5 in 80% of recent outings. Combined, expect a moderate-scoring game.
Both Teams to Score (BTTS): BTTS has landed in 40% of Nice’s games and 20% of Roma’s. Community predictions favor BTTS yes at 100% consensus.
Home/Away Stats: Nice win 60% of home games; Roma win 67% away in recent form.
xG and Efficiency: Nice’s xG is 1.2 for, 1.4 against; Roma’s is 1.1 for, 0.8 against.

Trends suggest Roma’s defense could frustrate Nice, but home advantage might lead to a draw or narrow win.

Prediction

Based on form, injuries, and stats, our prediction leans toward a close game. Roma’s experience and away form make them slight favorites, but Nice’s home strength and Roma’s absences could result in a draw.

Full-Time Result Prediction: Draw 1-1. Roma have the edge, but Nice’s resilience suggests shared points.
Alternative Prediction: If pressed, Roma to win 0-1, as per several sources.

Mathematical models vary: Some predict Roma win with 59% probability, others favor Nice at 42.82%. xGscore suggests Nice win 3.12 odds.

Expect under 2.5 goals, given Roma’s low-scoring games.

Current Odds for Nice vs. Roma

Odds as of September 22, 2025, from major bookmakers like Bet365, William Hill, and others:

Full-Time Result:

Nice Win: 3.10 – 3.20
Draw: 3.40 – 3.48
Roma Win: 2.20 – 2.28

Over/Under 2.5 Goals:

Over: 1.89 – 2.00 (-119)
Under: 1.80 – 1.90 (+102)

Both Teams to Score:

Yes: 1.67 – 1.73 (-137)
No: 2.10 – 2.20

Double Chance:

Nice or Draw (1X): 1.60
Draw or Roma (X2): 1.35 – 1.40
Nice or Roma (12): 1.30

Correct Score:

1-1: 6.50
0-1 Roma: 8.00
2-1 Nice: 10.00

First Goalscorer:

Terem Moffi (Nice): 6.00
Matìas Soulé (Roma): 7.50

Odds fluctuate, so check live for updates. Value lies in under 2.5 or BTTS yes, depending on your risk appetite.

Betting Tips

Betting on Nice vs. Roma offers plenty of opportunities. Here are our top tips, backed by analysis:

Under 2.5 Goals (-110 odds): Roma’s games are low-scoring, and Nice’s defense at home is solid. 70% of Roma’s recent matches under 2.5. Stake: Medium.
Both Teams to Score – Yes (-137 odds): Despite under trends, community consensus is 100% for BTTS. Nice score at home, Roma on counters. Combine with over 1.5 for better value.
Roma to Win or Draw (X2 -200 odds): Roma’s form and experience make this safe. 67% away win rate recently. Good for accumulators.
First Half Draw (+120 odds): Both teams start cautiously in Europe. Nice strong in second halves.
Player Props: Jérémie Boga anytime goalscorer (+300). He’s in form and targets weak defenses.
Asian Handicap: Roma -0.25 (+100): Covers win or half-stake on draw.

For high-rollers, parlay BTTS yes + under 3.5 goals (+250). Always bet responsibly, using bankroll management—never risk more than 5% per bet.

Tactical Breakdown

Tactically, Nice will likely deploy a 3-4-2-1 to maximize width, with Clauss and Bard pushing forward. They’ll aim for possession (55-60%) to tire Roma, targeting crosses to Moffi. Defensively, Bombito’s return strengthens the backline against counters.

Roma’s 3-5-2 focuses on compactness, with Cristante and Koné breaking play. Without Dybala, Soulé and Ferguson will lead breaks, exploiting Nice’s high line. Expect Angeliño’s overlaps to create chances.

If Nice score first, Roma might struggle; if Roma lead, they’ll park the bus. Set-pieces could decide it—Roma win 60% of aerial duels.

Historical Context and Club Overviews

To appreciate this matchup, let’s explore the clubs’ histories.

OGC Nice: The Eagles of the Côte d’Azur

Founded in 1904, OGC Nice have won four Ligue 1 titles, most recently in 1959. Recent years saw investment from INEOS, leading to top-5 finishes. Stars like Jean-Clair Todibo (now at West Ham) highlight their talent development. In Europe, they’ve reached the Europa League knockout stages twice recently.

AS Roma: The Giallorossi Legacy

Established in 1927, Roma have three Serie A titles and a 2022 Conference League win. Legends like Francesco Totti define their passion. Under owners like the Friedkins, they’ve invested in youth, with European finals in 2021 and 2022.

This clash represents French flair vs. Italian grit.

Fan Perspectives and Atmosphere

The Allianz Riviera, capacity 36,000, will be buzzing. Nice fans, known for ultras, create intimidating atmospheres. Roma’s traveling support adds color. Expect chants, flares, and high energy influencing the game.

Broader Betting Strategies for Europa League

Beyond this match, consider trends: Home teams win 45% in league phase, unders hit 55%. Shop odds across bookies for best value. Use stats sites like xGscore for data-driven bets.

Conclusion

In summary, Nice vs. Roma is set to be a thrilling Europa League opener. With Roma favored but Nice capable of an upset, our prediction is a 1-1 draw. Odds offer value in unders and BTTS, while tips like Roma X2 provide safety.

Remember, football is unpredictable—use this as a guide, not gospel. Bet responsibly, and enjoy the match! For live updates, check UEFA’s site.