Newport vs. Gillingham Odds and Betting Tips

Gillingham are favored to win against Newport County in their FA Cup match, with the bookmakers pricing an away victory at 1.76 odds. This First Round fixture at Rodney Parade promises intrigue, pitting a Gillingham side with strong away form against a Newport team desperate to overturn a dismal home record and secure revenge for a 3-1 league defeat earlier this season. This comprehensive preview will guide you through the teams’ current form, tactical analysis, and the most insightful betting tips for the match.

Match Overview and Fixture Details

The Emirates FA Cup begins in earnest for Newport County and Gillingham this Saturday, as the two League Two rivals lock horns in a compelling First Round draw. The match will be played at Rodney Parade in Newport, with kick-off scheduled for 15:00 UK Time on Saturday, November 1, 2025.

This cup tie offers a quick reunion for the two clubs, who faced each other in the league at the same venue just weeks ago. On that occasion, Gillingham emerged as 3-1 victors, a result that will undoubtedly be fresh in the minds of both sets of players and fans. For Newport, this is a prime opportunity for redemption, while Gillingham will be looking to prove their dominance was no fluke and secure a place in the Second Round of the country’s most historic cup competition.

Current Team Form and Analysis

Understanding the recent performance of both teams is crucial for making an informed prediction. The form guide reveals a tale of two teams heading in contrasting directions.

Newport County: Struggling for Consistency

The Exiles have found consistent results hard to come by this season. Their overall form shows 3 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses across all competitions in the 2025/26 season. Their struggles are particularly pronounced at Rodney Parade, which has become a fortress of frustration rather than a source of home comfort.

• Alarming Home Form: Newport’s home record is a major cause for concern. They are currently on a run of 8 defeats and 2 draws in their previous 10 home matches. This inability to pick up wins in front of their own fans will be a significant psychological hurdle.
• Goal-Scoring Struggles: At home, Newport has managed an average of only 0.60 goals scored per game in their last 10 matches. This lack of a cutting edge in the final third has consistently cost them points.
• Defensive Vulnerabilities: While struggling to score, they have also been conceding at an average of 1.90 goals per game at home. This combination makes winning football matches an uphill battle.

Gillingham: Solid Away from Home

In contrast to their opponents, Gillingham has been a much more resilient unit, particularly on their travels. They currently sit in a respectable 8th place in the League Two table with 22 points from 14 games (6 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses).

• Resilient Away Form: The Gills are undefeated in 50% of their recent away fixtures, recording 3 wins, 5 draws, and 2 defeats in their previous 10 matches on the road. This demonstrates a toughness and organization that serves them well away from home.
• Balanced Attack and Defense: In their away matches, Gillingham averages 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded. This balanced record shows a team capable of scoring while remaining relatively solid at the back.
• Recent Dip: It should be noted that Gillingham has experienced a slight dip in form recently, with 5 losses in their last 6 matches. However, their strong start to the season and overall away record suggest they are capable of turning this around.

Head-to-Head (H2H) Record

The historical record between these two teams reveals a surprising dominance by what appears to be the underdog.

Table: Newport County vs. Gillingham Head-to-Head Summary

Despite Newport’s clear historical advantage, the most recent encounter is the most telling. In September 2025, Gillingham traveled to Rodney Parade and secured a convincing 3-1 league victory. This result, breaking a long streak of Newport wins, could signal a shift in the psychological dynamic between the two sides.

Tactical Breakdown and Key Players

Newport County’s Approach and Key Men

Newport will be keen to exact revenge and use their poor home form as a motivational tool. Manager Dave Hughes will likely set his team up to be difficult to break down and will look to be more clinical with the chances they create.

• Top Scorer: The offensive system will be led by top scorer Courtney Baker-Richardson, who has netted 3 goals this season.
• Creative Hub: The season’s best assistant has been Kai Whitmore, who has contributed 3 assists and will be key to unlocking the Gillingham defense.

Gillingham’s Approach and Key Men

Gillingham will be managed by assistant Richard Dobson, as head coach Gareth Ainsworth is currently absent recovering from heart surgery. Dobson is expected to continue with a well-organized and experienced setup.

• The Main Threat: The standout name is Bradley Dack. The attacking midfielder scored a brace in the 3-1 win at Rodney Parade earlier this season and will be the primary creative and goal-scoring threat for the visitors.
• The Captain: Captain Armani Little provides leadership and energy in midfield. With 9 appearances, 2 goals, and 1 assist this season, he is a vital component of the team.
• Defensive Rock: In defense, experienced full-back Max Clark brings quality and composure to the Gillingham back line.
• The Wildcard: Seb Palmer-Houlden, a former Newport County loanee, possesses pace and work rate up front, and his familiarity with Rodney Parade could make him a useful option.

Betting Odds and Markets

The bookmakers’ odds reflect the current form and league standings of the two teams, positioning Gillingham as the clear favorite.

Table: Match Winner Odds (Full-Time Result)

Other Popular Markets

• Double Chance: Newport or Draw (1X) @ 1.95; Newport or Gillingham (12) @ 1.29; Draw or Gillingham (X2) @ 1.20.
• Both Teams to Score (BTTS): Yes @ 1.91; No @ 1.91.
• Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.5 @ 1.91; Under 2.5 @ 1.80.

Prediction and Betting Tips

Based on the analysis of form, tactics, and statistics, here are our top betting recommendations for this FA Cup fixture.

Main Prediction: Gillingham to Win

Our primary pick is for Gillingham to win at odds of 1.76. This is largely based on the stark contrast between the two teams’ recent forms, especially at Rodney Parade. Newport’s dreadful home record, coupled with Gillingham’s resilience on the road, makes the away victory the most logical outcome. The bookmakers’ odds imply a 56.8% probability, but our analysis suggests the true chance is likely higher, making this a value bet.

Value Bet: Gillingham to Win and Both Teams to Score – No

For those seeking a higher return, a strong alternative is combining a Gillingham win with “Both Teams to Score: No.” This bet builder pays out at odds of approximately 3.36. This prediction banks on Gillingham’s defensive solidity away from home (conceding 1.10 on average) and Newport’s struggles in front of goal at Rodney Parade (scoring 0.60 on average). A 1-0 or 2-0 victory for the away side is a very plausible scenario.

Correct Score Prediction: Newport 0 – 1 Gillingham

For correct score punters, a 1-0 victory for Gillingham at odds of 5.00 offers excellent value. This scoreline aligns with the statistical data showing Newport’s low scoring at home and Gillingham’s ability to grind out results on their travels. It also mirrors the pattern of tight, low-scoring games that Gillingham is often involved in away from home.

Final Thoughts and Disclaimer

This FA Cup First Round tie is set up to be a tense and tactical affair. While history favors Newport, current momentum and form point decisively towards Gillingham. The absence of Gillingham’s manager adds an element of uncertainty, but their superior squad quality and Newport’s profound home struggles should be the defining factors.

Responsible Gambling Reminder: Please remember that all betting should be done responsibly. Treat these predictions as informed opinions, not guarantees. Only wager what you can afford to lose, and ensure gambling remains a fun and entertaining activity. If you feel you may have a problem, seek help from organizations like GamCare.

All odds referenced are correct as of October 31, 2025, and are subject to change.