New York Giants vs. New Orleans Saints Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips

Posted on October 3, 2025 by author in Betting

The upcoming matchup between the New York Giants and the New Orleans Saints in Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season presents a compelling opportunity for both teams to address early-season challenges. Scheduled for October 5, 2025, at 1:00 PM ET in the Caesars Superdome, this game features two squads seeking momentum in a competitive league landscape. The Giants, holding a 1-3 record, travel to New Orleans to face the winless Saints at 0-4. This analysis examines team performances, key statistical insights, injury updates, historical context, current betting odds, expert predictions, and strategic betting recommendations to provide a comprehensive overview.

Overview of the Teams’ Seasons

The New York Giants entered the 2025 season with tempered expectations following a 3-14 record in 2024, which positioned them to select Penn State linebacker Abdul Carter with the third overall pick in the draft. Under head coach Brian Daboll, the team has shown flashes of potential but struggles with consistency. Their sole victory came against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 4, a 21-18 win that highlighted defensive resilience. However, losses to the Kansas City Chiefs (22-9), Dallas Cowboys (40-37 in overtime), and Washington Commanders (21-6) underscore offensive limitations and defensive vulnerabilities.

Statistically, the Giants average 18.3 points per game, ranking 27th in the league, while allowing 25.3 points per contest, placing them 23rd defensively. Their total offense accumulates 301.8 yards per game, with a balanced but inefficient approach: 124 rushing yards (15th) and 177.8 passing yards (28th). Rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart has managed the offense adequately, but the unit’s third-down conversion rate stands at a modest 32.7% (18/55). Defensively, the Giants have recorded seven sacks and three interceptions through four games, but they rank 29th in yards allowed per game at 339.5.

In contrast, the New Orleans Saints, under new head coach Kellen Moore, have endured a disappointing start, remaining winless after defeats to the Arizona Cardinals (20-13), San Francisco 49ers (26-21), Seattle Seahawks (44-13), and Buffalo Bills (31-19). This follows a 5-12 record in 2024, prompting significant offseason changes. The Saints average 16.5 points per game (28th) and concede 30.3 points (30th), reflecting struggles on both sides of the ball. Their offense generates 301 yards per game (21st), with 124 rushing yards (16th) and 191.3 passing yards (25th). Defensively, they allow 324 yards per game (18th), but have been porous against the run (118.8 yards allowed, 20th) and pass (205.3 yards allowed, 16th).

Quarterback Spencer Rattler has thrown five touchdowns in the last three games, offering glimpses of potential, but the team’s turnover margin (-4) and penalty yards (averaging 65 per game) have compounded issues. The Saints’ home performance remains a point of interest, as they seek their first win in the familiar confines of the Superdome.

Key Players and Matchups

Several individual battles could determine the outcome of this contest. For the Giants, the absence of star wide receiver Malik Nabers, sidelined for the season with a torn ACL suffered in Week 4, places additional pressure on the passing game. Wan’Dale Robinson and Theo Johnson will need to step up as primary targets for Dart, who faces a Saints secondary that has intercepted only two passes this season. On the ground, running back Tyrone Tracy aims to exploit New Orleans’ run defense, which allows 118.8 yards per game.

Defensively, edge rusher Brian Burns and linebacker Abdul Carter will target Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler, who has been sacked 12 times in four games. The Giants’ secondary, led by Dru Phillips, must contain wide receiver Chris Olave, who leads the Saints with 312 receiving yards.

For the Saints, running back Alvin Kamara remains a focal point, averaging 4.8 yards per carry and providing a dual-threat capability with 28 receptions. His matchup against the Giants’ front seven, which allows 126.3 rushing yards per game (19th), could be pivotal. On defense, despite the absence of edge rusher Chase Young (out with a pectoral injury) and right guard Cesar Ruiz (out with a knee issue), the unit relies on defensive tackle Bryan Bresee and safety Tyrann Mathieu to disrupt Dart’s rhythm. The Saints’ offensive line, already beleaguered, faces a Giants pass rush that has generated 11 sacks.

Notable matchups include Giants left tackle Andrew Thomas versus Saints defensive end Carl Granderson, where pass protection will be critical, and the battle in the trenches where New York’s defensive line, including Dexter Lawrence, aims to stifle Kamara’s runs.

Injury Reports

Injuries play a significant role in this matchup. For the Giants, quarterback Jaxson Dart is questionable with a hamstring injury but expected to practice. Safety Tyler Nubin (neck) and running back Tyrone Tracy (groin) are also questionable, while nose tackle Dexter Lawrence missed practice due to illness but is anticipated to return. Safety Dane Belton (shoulder) and defensive lineman D.J. Davidson (foot) are limited. The loss of Nabers is a major setback, forcing adjustments in the receiving corps.

The Saints’ injury list includes safety Justin Reid (knee, full practice), wide receiver Trey Palmer (ankle, limited), and cornerback Isaac Yiadom (hamstring, questionable). Tight end Juwan Johnson (ankle) and tackle Trevor Penning (hamstring) have been upgraded to full participation. However, Chase Young and Cesar Ruiz are ruled out, weakening the defensive and offensive lines. Tight end Foster Moreau (undisclosed) is questionable. These absences could exacerbate New Orleans’ struggles in protecting Rattler and generating pressure.

Historical Context and Recent Matchups

The rivalry between the Giants and Saints dates back to 1967, with New York holding a slight edge at 17-16 in 33 matchs. In New Orleans, the Saints have a 11-4 home record against the Giants. Recent encounters favor the Saints, who won the last two: a 14-11 victory in 2024 and a 24-6 win in 2023. The 2024 game was low-scoring, with both defenses dominating, combining for just 25 points.

Historically, games in the Superdome have been competitive, with the under hitting in four of the last six matchups. The Giants are 2-0 against the first-half line in New Orleans since 2021, but overall trends suggest defensive battles. This context indicates a potential for another close, low-scoring affair.

Current Odds and Line Movement

Betting lines have fluctuated significantly. Initially, the Giants opened as 1.5-point favorites, but sharp money shifted the spread to Saints -1.5 to -2.5. Current consensus odds include:

Spread: Saints -1.5 (-105) to -2 (-110), Giants +1.5 (-120) to +2 (-110).
Moneyline: Saints -124 to -130, Giants +106 to +110.
Total (Over/Under): 41 to 41.5, with Over at -110 to -115.

The line flip, a five-point swing, occurred despite 67% of public action on the Giants, suggesting professional bettors favor the Saints due to home advantage and New York’s injuries. Public trends lean toward New Orleans covering, but models predict a tight game.

Expert Predictions

Analysts predominantly favor the Saints to secure their first win. One projection anticipates a 24-21 Saints victory, citing home-field advantage and Rattler’s recent form. Another expert picks Saints -2, emphasizing the Giants’ offensive struggles without Nabers and the Saints’ competitive showings against stronger opponents like the Bills. The under 41 is also recommended, given both teams’ low-scoring tendencies—Giants games have gone under in three of four, and Saints in five of their last six home contests.

Experts are split, with some noting the Giants’ road underdog success (2-2 ATS), but the consensus leans toward New Orleans in a close contest.

Betting Tips and Strategies

For bettors, consider the following approaches:

Spread Betting: Favor the Saints -1.5 (-105), as their defense can exploit the Giants’ depleted receiving options. Avoid pushing to -2.5 unless confident in a multi-score margin.
Moneyline: Saints at -130 offers value for a straightforward win, given their desperation and home edge. Parlay with under for enhanced returns.
Over/Under: Bet under 41.5 (-105), aligning with trends—both teams rank in the bottom 10 for points scored, and recent matchups averaged 25 points.
Player Props: Alvin Kamara anytime touchdown at -125 is appealing, as he faces a vulnerable Giants run defense. Consider Jaxson Dart under 200.5 passing yards, factoring in his injury and Nabers’ absence.
Teasers and Parlays: Tease the Saints to +4.5 with under 47.5 for safer exposure. Avoid heavy public sides, as sharp money has moved the line.

Always review live odds and injury updates closer to kickoff. Responsible betting practices recommend limiting wagers to affordable amounts.

Conclusion

This Week 5 encounter between the New York Giants and New Orleans Saints is poised to be a defensive struggle, with the home team holding a slight advantage. While the Giants possess defensive talent, their offensive limitations and injuries may prove decisive. The Saints, eager for a breakthrough, could capitalize on familiar surroundings to notch their first victory. Bettors should prioritize under plays and Saints coverage for optimal strategies. As the season progresses, this game may serve as a turning point for both franchises in their pursuit of relevance in the NFC.