Liverpool Women vs. Man Utd Women prediction, odds & betting tips

The Women’s Super League is heating up early in the 2025/26 season, and few fixtures capture the raw intensity of the competition like a North-West derby. On Sunday, September 28, 2025, at 12:00 BST, Liverpool Women host Manchester United Women at St Helens Stadium in what promises to be a fiercely contested battle. This clash isn’t just about three points—it’s a test of resilience for Liverpool amid a rocky start and a chance for United to build on their strong opening. With tributes planned for Liverpool’s late former manager Matt Beard, emotions will run high, adding layers to an already charged atmosphere.

As fans gear up for kickoff, broadcast live on Sky Sports and the WSL YouTube channel, we’re diving deep into the preview. Expect detailed analysis on form, head-to-head stats, key players, tactical insights, our match prediction, the latest odds, and smart betting tips to help you navigate the markets. Whether you’re a die-hard Red or a United supporter, this guide has everything to get you match-ready.

Match Preview

St Helens Stadium, with its capacity of around 18,000, has become a fortress for Liverpool Women in recent seasons, but early signs suggest cracks in the armor. The 2025/26 WSL campaign kicked off on September 5, and by the time this derby rolls around, both sides will have played a handful of games. For Liverpool, sitting 11th after heavy defeats, this home fixture against a top-four contender like United is a must-win to spark momentum. United, meanwhile, sit comfortably in the upper echelons, eyeing a Champions League push after qualifying for the league phase.

The stakes? Beyond league positioning, this match honors Beard’s legacy—he guided Liverpool to back-to-back third-place finishes before his untimely passing. United’s manager Marc Skinner has already pledged heartfelt tributes, setting a poignant tone. Weather forecasts point to a crisp autumn day in Merseyside, with temperatures around 14°C and minimal rain—ideal for flowing football.

Historically, these derbies evoke the men’s counterpart’s ferocity but with a distinctly female flair: tactical nous over brute force, and moments of brilliance from emerging stars. Expect a crowd of 10,000+, fueled by the rivalry’s growing buzz in the women’s game.

Team News and Injury Updates: Who Makes the Lineup?

Team news could swing this game, with both squads nursing knocks from a congested schedule.

For Liverpool Women, head coach Gareth Taylor faces a defensive headache. Long-term absentees include defender Zara Shaw (knee) and goalkeeper Rachael Laws (hand), forcing reliance on backups. Positively, midfielder Alejandra Bernabe has returned to full training after a summer layoff, while Danish keeper Sofie Lundgaard is back on the bench. Japanese international Risa Shimizu, a summer signing, has featured off the bench and could earn a start at right-back for her crossing prowess. Up front, expect Ceri Holland to lead the line, with Fuka Nagano pulling strings in midfield.

Projected Liverpool XI (4-3-3): Lundgaard; Shimizu, Fisk (c), Evans, Parry; Nagano, Hobinger, Kitslaar; Holland, Lawley, Ender.

Manchester United Women head into the game with fewer concerns but aren’t unscathed. Defender Jayde Riviere missed the recent 0-0 draw with Arsenal due to a niggle, while Millie Turner’s knee issue is under assessment—her availability is doubtful. Winger Simi Awuji and forward Leah Galton could return by month’s end, boosting depth. Striker Rachel Williams came off the bench last outing, and midfielder Celin Bizet Donnum played 76 minutes after rotation. Grace Clinton, fresh from Euro 2025 duties with England, is pushing for a start.

Projected United XI (4-2-3-1): Tullis-Joyce; Blundell, Le Tissier, George, Sandberg; Groenen, Ladd; Toone, Clinton, Rolfö; Williams.

These lineups suggest a battle in midfield, where Nagano vs. Toone could define the tempo. Substitutes like Liverpool’s Marie Hobinger and United’s Maya Le Tissier add firepower from the bench.

Recent Form Guide: Liverpool’s Struggles vs. United’s Solidity

Form tells a stark tale heading into this derby. Liverpool’s season opener was a nightmare: a 4-1 thrashing at Everton on September 14, exposing defensive frailties as they conceded three in the first half. Things worsened with a 1-0 loss to Leicester City, where they managed just one shot on target despite dominating possession. Their third game against Aston Villa was postponed due to weather, leaving them winless and goal-shy (one scored, five conceded in two matches).

Contrast that with Manchester United’s blistering start. They dismantled Leicester 4-0 on September 7, with goals from four different scorers showcasing attacking depth. London City Lionesses fell 5-1 next, as United’s press overwhelmed the newcomers. The Arsenal draw (0-0) was gritty, denying the Gunners a win and highlighting United’s defensive resolve—clean sheet against the champions-elect. Overall: two wins, one draw, 9 goals scored, 1 conceded.

This table underscores United’s edge, but home advantage could ignite Liverpool— they’ve won their last two WSL home games against United.

Head-to-Head History

The Liverpool vs. Man Utd women’s derby lacks the men’s fixture’s century-old baggage but is building its own lore since United’s WSL return in 2019. In 12 matchs, United lead with 7 wins to Liverpool’s 4, and 1 draw. Average goals per game? A tantalizing 2.8, hinting at end-to-end action.

Recent encounters add spice:

• August 20, 2025 (Friendly): 2-2 thriller at Leigh Sports Village. Ella Toone’s 90th-minute equalizer salvaged a point after Liverpool led twice.
• March 14, 2025 (WSL): Liverpool 3-1 United. A stunning comeback saw the Reds overturn a deficit, with Holland netting twice.
• December 8, 2024 (WSL): United 4-0 Liverpool. A dominant display, with Toone and Williams starring.
• January 15, 2023 (WSL): United 2-1 Liverpool, decided by a late penalty.

Liverpool’s home record vs. United is solid: unbeaten in the last three WSL clashes at Anfield/St Helens (W2, D1). Yet United’s away form this season is impeccable—one win, zero losses. BTTS has landed in 50% of H2H, with over 2.5 goals in 58%.

This history screams unpredictability—perfect for bettors eyeing value in draws or goals markets.

Key Players to Watch: Stars Who Could Steal the Show

In a derby this tight, individuals often tip the scales. Here’s our spotlight on six game-changers.

Liverpool Women

1. Ceri Holland (Winger): The Welsh international’s pace and finishing are Liverpool’s biggest weapons. With two goals in her last three games, she’s a threat on counters. Watch for her one-v-ones against United’s full-backs.
2. Fuka Nagano (Midfielder): Japan’s World Cup hero dictates tempo with her vision. Her long-range passes could unlock United’s high line—expect 80+ touches if Liverpool control possession.
3. Marie Hobinger (Midfielder): The Austrian’s set-piece delivery (two assists last season) makes her invaluable. Sub or starter, her arrival could swing momentum.

Defensively, captain Grace Fisk anchors the backline, winning 65% of aerial duels—crucial against Williams.

Manchester United Women

1. Ella Toone (Midfielder): United’s talisman, with 15 goals last season. Her late drama in the friendly shows her clutch factor; 2/1 anytime scorer odds look tasty.
2. Grace Clinton (Midfielder): Post-Euro 2025 glow-up, the 22-year-old’s energy disrupts midfields. Her through-balls fed three goals early season— a nightmare for Nagano.
3. Frida Rolfö (Winger): The Swede’s crossing (4.2 per 90) targets Williams perfectly. If she starts over Donnum, expect width exploitation.

Maya Le Tissier (Defender) adds set-piece threat, scoring from corners. These players embody United’s blend of youth and experience.

Tactical Breakdown: Press, Possession, and Pressure Points

Taylor’s Liverpool favor a 4-3-3 with high pressing, aiming for quick transitions. Nagano and Hobinger form a double pivot for ball recovery (winning 55% duels), feeding Holland’s runs. Weakness? Defensive transitions—Everton’s counters exposed them, conceding 2.5 xG per game. Against United’s fluid attack, Fisk must organize the back four.

Skinner’s United deploy a 4-2-3-1, emphasizing possession (58% average) and wide overloads. Toone and Clinton rotate in half-spaces, pulling markers and creating for Rolfö’s crosses. Their press is ferocious—regaining possession in the opposition third 12 times vs. Arsenal. Achilles’ heel: set-piece defending, vulnerable in the friendly draw.

Key matchup: Midfield battle. If Liverpool win second balls, they counter effectively (1.8 goals from breaks last season). United dominate possession? Expect 60% ball and sustained pressure. Sub impact looms large—both benches boast WSL quality.

Our Match Prediction: United Edge It, But Goals Flow

Weighing form, H2H, and tactics, Manchester United hold the upper hand. Liverpool’s winless streak and injuries scream vulnerability, while United’s attack (3 goals/game) overwhelms mid-table sides. Home crowd and Beard’s tribute add fire, but United’s depth prevails.

Prediction: Liverpool Women 1-2 Manchester United Women.

Correct score rationale: Liverpool snag an early goal via Holland, but Toone’s magic and Williams’ hold-up turn the tide. BTTS yes (70% probability), over 2.5 goals (65% based on form). Confidence: 65%—derbies defy logic.

Alternative: If Shimizu starts, Liverpool +1 handicap covers.

Latest Betting Odds: Where’s the Value?

Odds reflect United’s favoritism, but markets offer edges. Sourced from major bookies like Bet365 and William Hill (as of September 25, 2025):

Match Winner (1X2)

• Liverpool Win: 7.50 (Bet365)
• Draw: 4.50 (William Hill)
• Man Utd Win: 1.40 (Bet365)

Draw No Bet

• Liverpool: 4.00
• Man Utd: 1.10

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

• Over 2.5: 1.80 (Paddy Power)
• Under 2.5: 1.95 (Betfair)

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

• Yes: 1.75 (Sky Bet)
• No: 2.00 (Ladbrokes)

United’s low win price stems from form, but Liverpool’s home H2H suggests draw value at 4.50. Over 2.5 tempts given 67% United games hitting it.

Top Betting Tips: Smart Plays for the Derby

With odds locked, here are five researched tips (stake 1-5 units, always gamble responsibly):

1. Man Utd to Win @ 1.40 (3 units): Form screams it—9 goals in three, vs. Liverpool’s porous defense. Low odds, but safe accumulator anchor.
2. BTTS Yes @ 1.75 (2 units): Hit in 50% H2H and Liverpool’s last home game. United concede on counters; value here.
3. Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 (2 units): United’s attack + Liverpool’s leaks = goals. 67% of United’s games over.
4. Ella Toone Anytime Scorer @ 2.10 (1 unit): Scored in the friendly; her derby record (3 in 5) shines. Boost with goal+assist at 5.00.
5. Draw @ 4.50 (1 unit): Contrarian play—H2H draw rate 8%, but recent 2-2 screams stalemate potential. Covers if Liverpool grind.

Combo bet: Man Utd Win + BTTS @ 3.00 (1 unit). Expected value positive per models.

The Bigger Picture: Why This Derby Matters for the WSL

This isn’t isolated—it’s a microcosm of the WSL’s evolution. Women’s football exploded post-Euro 2022, with attendances up 20% and broadcast deals soaring. Liverpool, under Taylor (ex-Manchester City), aim mid-table stability; a win halts slide. United chase Arsenal/Chelsea, with Champions League adding pressure.

Beard’s passing casts a shadow—his 2019-2023 stint built foundations. Tributes (minute’s silence, black armbands) remind us: football’s family.

Post-match, eyes on October internationals. For now, relish the derby.

Conclusion

Liverpool Women vs. Man Utd Women on September 28 is must-watch: passion, talent, history. Our call: 1-2 United, but expect fireworks. Grab odds early—markets tighten. Who’s your pick? The WSL’s magic unfolds.