Liverpool vs. Southampton prediction, odds & betting tips

The upcoming encounter between Liverpool and Southampton in the Carabao Cup on September 23, 2025, presents an intriguing fixture at Anfield Stadium. As Liverpool seeks to advance in the competition while maintaining momentum in a demanding season, Southampton aims to cause an upset despite their current position in the Championship following relegation. This analysis provides a comprehensive overview of the Liverpool vs. Southampton prediction, incorporating current odds and strategic betting tips to assist informed decision-making. With Liverpool positioned as strong favorites, the match offers opportunities for bettors to explore various markets, from outright winners to goal-related outcomes.

Scheduled for 19:00 UTC, this third-round tie in the EFL Cup (Carabao Cup) follows closely after Liverpool’s Merseyside derby against Everton on September 20, 2025, potentially influencing team selections due to fixture congestion. Southampton, meanwhile, faces Hull City in the Championship on the same day, adding to their scheduling challenges. Historical context and recent performances suggest a one-sided affair, yet cup competitions often yield surprises, making this a compelling subject for predictions and wagering.

Match Details

The game will take place at Anfield, Liverpool’s iconic home ground with a capacity exceeding 61,000, known for its electric atmosphere that often propels the hosts to victory. As part of the 2025-26 Carabao Cup, this single-leg knockout match requires a winner on the night, with extra time and penalties possible if scores are level after 90 minutes. Liverpool enters as the defending champions or recent contenders in domestic cups, having demonstrated consistent success in such tournaments under manager Arne Slot.

Southampton, now competing in the Championship after a difficult 2024-25 Premier League campaign, views this as an opportunity to test themselves against top-tier opposition. The Saints’ relegation has led to squad adjustments, but their participation in the Carabao Cup allows for a potential morale-boosting run. Weather conditions in late September at Anfield are typically mild, with temperatures around 15°C, unlikely to significantly impact play.

Broadcast details include live coverage on major UK networks such as Sky Sports, with streaming options available for international viewers. For those interested in live updates, platforms like the official club websites and social media channels will provide real-time insights.

Team Form and Analysis

Liverpool’s Recent Form

Liverpool has commenced the 2025-26 season with ambition, bolstered by significant transfers such as the record-breaking £125 million acquisition of Alexander Isak from Newcastle United on September 1, 2025. This move underscores their intent to strengthen the attacking line, complementing stars like Mohamed Salah and Florian Wirtz. In September 2025, Liverpool’s fixtures include Premier League matches and the onset of their UEFA Champions League campaign, with games against Galatasaray on September 30 and Eintracht Frankfurt on October 22.

Recent results indicate a solid start, with the team maintaining an unbeaten streak in domestic play. For instance, their performance against Arsenal earlier in the month showcased tactical adaptability, transforming in the second half through substitutions like Curtis Jones, who stabilized midfield operations. Defensively, Liverpool has been robust, conceding minimally while creating numerous scoring opportunities. The integration of new signings, including Isak, has added depth, allowing for rotation amid a busy schedule. However, the Merseyside derby on September 20 could test their resilience, potentially affecting energy levels for this cup tie.

Statistically, Liverpool’s home form remains formidable, with high possession averages (around 60%) and an effective pressing game that disrupts opponents. Their goal-scoring rate in recent matches hovers at 2.5 per game, driven by a balanced attack involving wingers and midfield incursions.

Southampton’s Recent Form

Southampton’s 2025-26 season marks their return to the Championship, where they currently sit in 16th place following a draw against Portsmouth on September 14. The team has shown mixed results, with fixtures against Portsmouth (0-0 draw), Hull City on September 20, and Sheffield United on September 30. Under manager Will Still, Southampton is rebuilding, focusing on youth development and tactical discipline.

Recent performances reveal defensive vulnerabilities, with clean sheets rare and goals conceded in most outings. Offensively, they rely on players like Cameron Archer, though his recent hamstring issue has limited contributions. Away form has been inconsistent, with draws dominating but few wins. In the Championship, Southampton averages 1.2 goals per game, indicating a need for improved finishing.

The transition from Premier League to Championship has affected morale, but cup runs could provide a boost. Against higher-caliber teams like Liverpool, Southampton’s strategy may involve compact defending and counter-attacks, though their current form suggests challenges in containing Liverpool’s attack.

Head-to-Head Record

The historical record between Liverpool and Southampton heavily favors Liverpool, with 24 wins compared to Southampton’s 10, and 8 draws across all competitions. In 42 direct matches, the average goals per game stand at 2.79, often featuring high-scoring encounters.

Recent matchs underscore Liverpool’s dominance: they have won six of the last eight at Anfield, conceding just one goal in the process. Notable results include a 3-0 victory in the Premier League, where Liverpool’s pressing overwhelmed Southampton. Southampton’s last win at Anfield dates back to 2017, highlighting the difficulty of securing points there.

In cup competitions, Liverpool has prevailed in key ties, such as a 3-1 win in the 2024-25 season. This head-to-head dynamic suggests Liverpool’s superior quality and home advantage will play a pivotal role.

Team News and Injuries

Liverpool

Liverpool approaches the match with minimal injury concerns. Curtis Jones, recovering from a knock, is expected to return, providing midfield options. Stefan Bajcetic remains sidelined with a hamstring injury, while Alexis Mac Allister’s ankle issue may limit his involvement, though he is anticipated back by late September. Alexander Isak’s personal reasons have caused absences, but he is likely available.

Manager Arne Slot may rotate, potentially debuting Giovanni Leoni in defense. The squad’s depth allows for resting key players post-derby, with Alisson Becker in goal, Virgil van Dijk anchoring defense, and attackers like Isak and Salah leading the line.

Southampton

Southampton faces several setbacks. Flynn Downes is doubtful due to illness, Cameron Archer nurses a hamstring problem, and Welington is out with an ankle injury. Longer-term absences include Jack Stephens (broken wrist, return early July 2026), Taylor Harwood-Bellis (ankle, early June 2026), and others like Samuel Edozie and Léo Scienza.

These issues could force tactical adjustments, relying on available players like Gavin Bazunu in goal and Kyle Walker-Peters in defense. The depleted squad may struggle against Liverpool’s intensity.

Key Players to Watch

For Liverpool, Mohamed Salah remains pivotal, with his goal-scoring prowess (one every 88 minutes recently) and assists in 12 of 13 home games. Florian Wirtz’s creativity and Alexander Isak’s finishing add threats. In midfield, Ryan Gravenberch’s control will be crucial.

Southampton’s hopes rest on Tyler Dibling’s energy and Adam Armstrong’s scoring, though injuries limit options. Kyle Walker-Peters’ defensive versatility could be key in containing Liverpool’s wings.

Tactical Preview

Liverpool under Slot employs a high-pressing 4-3-3, emphasizing possession and quick transitions. Expect rotations to manage fatigue, with focus on exploiting Southampton’s defensive frailties through wide attacks.

Southampton may adopt a 5-3-2 for compactness, countering via pace. However, their Championship-level intensity might falter against Liverpool’s superior fitness and quality.

Prediction

Given Liverpool’s form, home advantage, and Southampton’s struggles, a comfortable Liverpool victory is anticipated. Prediction: Liverpool 3-0 Southampton, with a 62% win probability for the hosts. Both teams to score is unlikely (57% no), aligning with a clean sheet for Liverpool.

Current Odds

Liverpool is favored at 1.08-1.14 for the win, draw at 7.50-9.00, and Southampton at 14.00-18.00. Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under at evens, reflecting predictions of a low-scoring game. BTTS no at 1.75. Specific scores like 3-0 Liverpool offer value at higher odds.

Betting Tips

1. Liverpool to Win to Nil: At odds around 1.80, this leverages Liverpool’s defensive strength and Southampton’s scoring drought.
2. Under 3.5 Goals: Recommended at 1.60, given predictions of a controlled match.
3. Mohamed Salah Anytime Goalscorer: At 1.50, his record against Southampton (nearing Ian Rush’s tally) makes this appealing.
4. Liverpool -2 Handicap: For higher returns (around 2.50), if expecting a dominant performance.
5. First Half Liverpool Lead: Odds of 1.40, as Liverpool often starts strongly at home.

Always bet responsibly, considering bankroll management and researching multiple bookmakers for best value.

Conclusion

This Liverpool vs. Southampton Carabao Cup clash on September 23, 2025, is poised for a Liverpool triumph, supported by superior form, squad depth, and historical precedence. While Southampton may offer resistance, the odds and analysis point to a straightforward advancement for the Reds. Bettors should focus on low-risk markets like Liverpool win and under goals for optimal strategies. As the season progresses, this match could highlight Liverpool’s cup ambitions amid their multi-competition pursuits.