Grand National Betting Guide: Odds & Top Tips

Last Updated on July 9, 2026 by author

Most Grand National articles recycle the same “avoid top weight, back an eight-year-old” folklore that was true in 2005 and has been quietly falsified since. This guide is built on what the last decade of results actually shows, not what the received wisdom says, and it accounts for the fact that the modern National is a materially different race from the one your granddad backed a horse in.

The once-a-year punter who wants to place a sensible bet and understand what they’ve done, and the semi-serious racing fan who wants to know where the value hides in a 34-runner handicap.

The race Info

The modern National is not the old National

This matters more to your betting than almost anything else, because it invalidates a chunk of the historical data that tipsters still cite.

Following The Jockey Club’s 2023 safety review, backed by the British Horseracing Authority, a package of changes took effect from the 2024 running:

• Field cut from 40 to 34 runners. The 40-runner limit had stood since 1984. Fewer runners means less traffic, fewer loose-horse incidents, and a slightly higher completion rate.
• The first fence moved 60 yards closer to the start, plus a standing start reintroduced, both intended to reduce the speed horses carry into fence one.
• Fence 11 lowered by two inches on the take-off side, with foam and rubber toe boards added to every fence.
• Minimum rating raised from 125 to 130, and the running rail realigned to help catch loose horses.
• Earlier start time, protecting ground conditions from a long afternoon of drying.

The betting consequence: the National has drifted closer to being a proper staying handicap chase and slightly further from being a lottery. Class and quality now matter more than they did when 40 horses piled into the first. That does not make it predictable. It does mean that when you’re weighing a 100/1 shot purely because “anything can win the National,” you’re leaning on an era that is ending.

How Grand National odds actually work

Fractional, decimal, and what the numbers are really telling you

UK bookmakers quote fractions. Exchanges and most of Europe quote decimals. Both encode the same thing: the bookmaker’s implied probability, plus their margin.

(Returns include your stake.)

The formula: implied probability = 1 ÷ decimal odds. A 25/1 shot is the market saying “this wins roughly once in every 26 runnings of this exact race.”

Here’s the professional’s move. Add up the implied probabilities of all 34 runners. You won’t get 100%. You’ll get something like 115–125%. That excess is the overround — the bookmaker’s built-in edge. In a big-field handicap the overround is fat, which is precisely why casual punters lose steadily and why finding a price that’s wrong is the entire game. You are not trying to pick the winner. You are trying to find a horse whose true chance exceeds what the price implies.

Starting Price (SP) vs. board price

Take a price and you lock it in. Take SP and you get whatever the horse is returned at when the tape rises. On National day, huge volumes of once-a-year money crush the prices of romantically-named horses and the media-hyped favourite. SP is usually worse than the early price on well-backed horses, and occasionally better on ignored ones. If you like a horse, take the price.

Look for two offers, which are genuinely worth money rather than marketing noise:

• Non-Runner No Bet (NRNB): your ante-post stake is refunded if your horse doesn’t run. Before this kicks in, an ante-post bet is void money if the horse stays at home. This is the single most important term in ante-post National betting.
• Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG): if you take 20/1 and the horse starts at 28/1, you’re paid at 28/1. Free upside, no downside.

Each-way betting: the National bet

Roughly two-thirds of Grand National bets are each-way, and most people placing them don’t know the terms they’ve accepted.

An each-way bet is two bets: one for the win, one for the place. £5 each-way costs £10.

Standard industry terms for a handicap with 16 or more runners are 1/4 the odds, four places. For the National, most firms enhance this — commonly five or six places, occasionally more, sometimes at reduced odds fractions. Read the terms. An extra place is worth far more in a 34-runner race than a marginally bigger win price.

Worked example — £5 each-way at 25/1, terms 1/4 odds, five places (£10 total stake):

• Horse wins: Win part returns £130 (£125 profit + £5 stake). Place part pays at 25/4 = 6.25/1, returning £36.25. Total return £166.25 — profit £156.25.
• Horse finishes fourth: Win part loses. Place part returns £36.25. Profit £26.25.
• Horse finishes sixth: Both parts lose. Loss £10.

The lesson buried in that maths: each-way is poor value on short-priced favourites (the place return barely covers the losing win stake) and strong value on 16/1 to 40/1 horses with genuine claims. The National is one of the few races where each-way betting is mathematically defensible rather than a comfort blanket.

10 top tips for backing a Grand National winner

1. Treat “top weight can’t win” as a weakened rule, not a law

For fifty years the received wisdom held: top weight is a graveyard. Then in 2026, I Am Maximus won carrying top weight — the first horse to do so since Red Rum in 1974 — while also becoming the first horse since Red Rum to regain the title. The reduced field and stiffer minimum rating have compressed the handicap and given quality horses more room to breathe. Weight is still a real burden. It is no longer an automatic strike-through.

2. Age eight to ten is the sweet spot

Six of the last ten winners were aged eight. Every winner of the past decade was under ten at the time of victory (I Am Maximus was a ten-year-old in 2026, arriving at the upper limit as a proven Aintree specialist). Seven-year-olds lack the experience; twelve-year-olds lack the legs. Progressive, lightly-raced stayers on the way up beat exposed veterans on the way down.

3. Demand proven stamina, then demand it again

Four and a quarter miles over 30 fences is the longest test in British racing. Wins over three miles are the entry ticket, not the qualification. Look for horses who finished strongly over 3m2f+, who have won on soft ground, and who have completed a marathon chase — the Irish National, Welsh National, Scottish National, Becher Chase, and Thyestes are the classic pointers.

4. Jumping ability is worth more than form figures

A brilliant horse who makes one mistake at Becher’s is a non-finisher. Study completion rate, not just placings. A horse with a career record of 18 runs and zero falls is telling you something a Racing Post rating cannot. Prior experience over the National fences — a Becher Chase or Topham run — is a meaningful edge.

5. Respect the handicap mark

With a minimum OR of 130, and 34 places for 90-plus entries, in practice you need a rating around 145+ just to make the field. Horses who are well-treated relative to their true ability — recent improvers the handicapper hasn’t caught — are where the value sits. A horse racing off a mark 6lb below what its last run suggested is a live bet at any price.

6. Know the Irish raiders

Seven of the last ten winners were trained in Ireland. Willie Mullins won three consecutively (2024, 2025, 2026), a feat unmatched since Vincent O’Brien in the 1950s, and in 2025 saddled the first three home. Powerful yards send multiple runners and hold most of the aces. That said, the market knows this too, so the Irish angle is a filter for credibility, not a source of price value.

7. Read the ground, not the forecast

Aintree now irrigates aggressively, and the earlier start time protects the going. Genuinely heavy ground is rarer than it was. A confirmed mudlark who needs bottomless conditions is a weaker bet than the folklore suggests. Ground announcements come daily in race week — wait for the Thursday and Friday updates before committing serious money.

8. Don’t be seduced by the favourite — or reflexively oppose it

Favourites have a historically poor record, but the last three renewals have been won at 7/1, 33/1, and 9/2. The market is getting sharper as the race gets less chaotic. The correct posture is neither “favourites never win” nor “back the jolly.” It’s: is this price wrong?

9. Bet where the price is silly, not where the name is nice

Recent winners returned 33/1 (Nick Rockett, 2025), 50/1 (Noble Yeats, 2022), 25/1 (Many Clouds, 2015). The National rewards patient value hunting in the 16/1–40/1 bracket where genuine contenders get overlooked because they lack a headline. A 100/1 shot with no stamina evidence is not value; it’s a donation with a story attached.

10. Set the stake before you pick the horse

Decide what the day costs you — £20, £50, whatever is comfortably disposable — and then allocate it. Never the reverse. Professionals size bets as a fixed small percentage of a bankroll. The single most reliable way to lose money on National day is to have a losing morning and then “get it back” in the big one.

Ante-post vs. race-week betting

Ante-post (weeks or months out) offers the biggest prices. The trade-off: if your horse doesn’t run, your stake is gone — unless the bookmaker offers Non-Runner No Bet. The weights are published in February, and that announcement moves the market violently. Horses handed a favourable mark shorten immediately. Betting before the weights is a bet on the handicapper’s opinion as much as the horse’s.

Race week brings the final field, confirmed 48 hours out, plus ground updates, jockey bookings, and NRNB across the board. Prices are shorter, but you’re betting on facts rather than possibilities.

A sensible split: a small ante-post position on a horse you’re convinced is under-rated, topped up on race day once the field is confirmed.

Bet types worth knowing

• Win — clean, honest, hard.
• Each-way — the National’s signature bet, best deployed at 16/1+.
• Without the favourite — a separate market removing the market leader. Useful when you think the favourite is unbeatable but fancy a horse behind it.
• Top Irish/British-trained — sidesteps the whole 34-runner scrum.
• Forecast / Tricast — first two or first three in order. Astronomical odds, astronomically unlikely. Fun money only.
• To finish / to complete the course — a quiet market where knowledge of a horse’s jumping record pays.

Five mistakes that cost punters money every April

1. Betting SP on a horse the nation is backing. You will get a worse price than the one on the board that morning.
2. Ignoring each-way terms. Six places at 1/5 beats five places at 1/4 in some scenarios and loses in others. Do the sum.
3. Ante-post betting without NRNB. Roughly two-thirds of entries never make the line-up.
4. Backing the name. Your dog is not a form line.
5. Chasing losses in the main event. The National is the last big-money bet of the day for most people, which is exactly why it’s the most emotionally dangerous.

FAQs

How many horses run in the Grand National? A maximum of 34, reduced from 40 for the 2024 running as part of The Jockey Club’s safety reforms. The final field is confirmed 48 hours before the race.

What time is the 2027 Grand National? Around 4:00pm on Saturday 10 April 2027. Confirm on the day, as timings occasionally shift.

How many places do bookmakers pay each-way? Standard terms for a 16+ runner handicap are 1/4 the odds on four places, but most firms enhance this to five or six places for the National. Terms vary by bookmaker and change in race week.

Do favourites win the Grand National? Rarely, historically — but the picture is shifting. I Am Maximus won as the 9/2 favourite in 2026. Recent winners have returned anywhere from 9/2 to 50/1.

Has any horse won it twice? Yes. Red Rum won three times (1973, 1974, 1977). Tiger Roll won back-to-back in 2018 and 2019. I Am Maximus won in 2024 and again in 2026, becoming the first horse since Red Rum to regain the title after losing it.

What’s the minimum rating to enter? An Official Rating of 130, raised from 125 in 2024. In practice, the cut-off for making the field usually sits considerably higher.

Is each-way betting worth it? On a short-priced favourite, generally no — the place return rarely justifies doubling your stake. On a 20/1 to 40/1 horse with genuine stamina and jumping credentials, it is one of the better-value bets in British racing.

How much does the winner get? £500,000 from a £1 million total prize fund, with prize money paid down to tenth place.

Responsible gambling

This guide will not make you a winning bettor, because no guide can. Bookmakers set prices with a built-in margin, and over a long enough horizon that margin wins. Every tip above is about losing more slowly and more knowledgeably, and about enjoying one of the great sporting spectacles with a modest stake attached.

Bet only what you can lose without it changing your week. If betting has stopped being fun, or you’re staking money you needed for something else, or you’re chasing losses:

• GamCare / National Gambling Helpline: 0808 8020 133 (free, 24/7)
• BeGambleAware: begambleaware.org
• GamStop: self-exclusion from all UK-licensed online operators
• Gambling Therapy: gamblingtherapy.org

Deposit limits, loss limits, and time-outs are available on every UK-licensed operator. Setting one before National day is the single smartest bet you’ll place all year.