Mallorca vs. Osasuna Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips

Last Updated on February 25, 2026 by author

The Estadi Mallorca Son Moix is set to host a pivotal La Liga clash as RCD Mallorca welcomes CA Osasuna in a match that pits two teams separated by just a single point in the middle of the table. With both clubs looking to secure vital points, this encounter promises to be a tightly contested battle. This comprehensive preview provides an in-depth analysis of team form, head-to-head records, and the latest betting odds to help you make informed predictions for this matchup.

Match Overview and Team News

The upcoming La Liga fixture between Mallorca and Osasuna is scheduled for Saturday, November 29, 2025, with a 13:00 UTC kick-off at the Estadi Mallorca Son Moix in Palma, Spain. As the match approaches, both teams find themselves in a critical phase of the season, needing points to climb away from the lower mid-table positions.

As of the current standings, Mallorca sits in 16th place with 12 points, while Osasuna is just one spot and one point behind in 17th place with 11 points. This adds significant weight to the encounter, as a victory for either side could provide a crucial buffer in the league table.

The weather forecast for Palma on matchday predicts conditions of around 16°C, which should be ideal for football. The referee appointment had not been announced at the time of writing but will be a key factor in managing what is expected to be a physically competitive match.

Current Odds and Probability Analysis

Understanding the betting odds is crucial for making informed wagers. The latest odds from various sportsbooks indicate that bookmakers view Mallorca as slight favorites, likely due to their home advantage and slightly better recent form.

Implied Probability from Odds:

• Mallorca Win: Approximately 39.2%
• Draw: Approximately 32.6%
• Osasuna Win: Approximately 30.0%

For other popular markets:

• Both Teams to Score (BTTS): “Yes” is priced around 1.95, while “No” is around 1.80.
• Over/Under 2.5 Goals: The “Under 2.5 Goals” market is favored at odds of 1.53, while “Over” is at 2.50.

Team Form and Statistical Breakdown

Mallorca Current Form

Mallorca has shown inconsistent but promising form in recent matches. Their overall record in the last five games reads: 3 Wins, 1 Draw, and 1 Loss. This sequence has yielded an average of 2.00 points per game, a respectable return that demonstrates their competitive spirit.

At home, Mallorca has been particularly difficult to beat, with a record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and just 1 loss in their last six matches at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix. Their statistical profile at home reveals:

• Goals Scored: 9 (Average of 0.9 per match)
• Goals Conceded: 11 (Average of 1.1 per match)
• Both Teams to Score: Occurred in 60% of home matches
• Clean Sheets: Kept in 50% of recent home games

Osasuna Current Form

Osasuna arrives in Palma struggling for consistency, with their recent form showing: 1 Win, 1 Draw, and 3 Losses in their last five outings. This has resulted in a modest average of 0.80 points per game.

Their away form makes for particularly concerning reading for Osasuna supporters, with the team managing 0 wins, 1 draw, and 6 losses in their last seven matches on the road. Key away statistics include:

• Goals Scored: 8 (Average of 0.8 per match)
• Goals Conceded: 10 (Average of 1.0 per match)
• Both Teams to Score: Occurred in only 30% of away matches
• Failed to Score: In 75% of recent away games

Head-to-Head (H2H) History and Analysis

The historical record between these two clubs reveals a remarkably balanced rivalry that dates back to 2003. Across all competitions, Mallorca and Osasuna have faced each other 38 times, with the breakdown as follows:

• Mallorca Wins: 10 (26.3%)
• Osasuna Wins: 13 (34.2%)
• Draws: 15 (39.5%)

The goal tally further emphasizes how evenly matched these teams have been historically, with both sides having scored exactly 49 goals each in their 38 matches. This translates to an average of approximately 1.3 goals per game for both teams in this fixture.

Recent Encounters

Recent matches between these sides have typically been low-scoring affairs:

• 10 Feb 2025: Mallorca 1 – 1 Osasuna
• 24 Aug 2024: Osasuna 1 – 0 Mallorca
• 14 May 2024: Osasuna 1 – 1 Mallorca
• 21 Dec 2023: Mallorca 3 – 2 Osasuna

A notable trend in this fixture is that four of the last five matches have featured Under 2.5 goals, highlighting the typically tight and tactical nature of these encounters.

Tactical Analysis and Key Players

Mallorca’s Approach

Under manager Jagoba Arrasate, Mallorca typically employs an organized defensive structure while looking to exploit opportunities on the counter-attack. Their home advantage often allows them to control more possession and create more scoring chances.

Key Players to Watch:

• Vedat Muriqi: The striker has been a consistent threat, having already scored 6 goals this season. His physical presence and aerial ability make him a constant danger in the penalty area.
• Cyle Larin: Another attacking option who has contributed 5 league goals this campaign. His pace and movement complement Muriqi’s physicality well.

Osasuna’s Strategy

Osasuna typically sets up in a disciplined 4-4-2 formation, focusing on maintaining defensive solidity while looking to create chances through organized build-up play and set pieces. Their struggles away from home, however, have often stemmed from difficulty in converting scoring opportunities.

Key Players to Watch:

• Ante Budimir: The forward leads Osasuna’s scoring charts with 5 goals this season. His positioning and finishing ability make him their primary goal threat.
• Raul Garcia: With 4 goals to his name this campaign, Garcia provides valuable support in attack and possesses experience in these tense midfield battles.

Betting Tips and Predictions

Recommended Bets

Based on the analysis of team form, historical data, and statistical trends, here are the most recommended betting approaches for this fixture:

1. Draw No Bet – Mallorca: At odds of approximately 1.83, this provides excellent value given Mallorca’s superior home form and Osasuna’s struggles on the road. This bet ensures your stake is returned if the match ends in a draw, offering a safety net in what could be a tight contest.
2. Under 2.5 Goals: Priced at 1.53, this appears to be one of the strongest bets for this fixture. The statistical evidence is compelling: Mallorca has seen Under 2.5 goals in 60% of their recent home games, while Osasuna has seen the same in a striking 80% of their recent away matches. Additionally, four of the last five head-to-head encounters have featured two or fewer goals.
3. Both Teams to Score – No: Available at odds around 1.80, this complements the Under 2.5 goals prediction. Osasuna’s significant struggles in front of goal away from home—failing to score in the majority of their recent away fixtures—makes this a plausible outcome.

Alternative Betting Options

For those seeking potentially higher returns, consider these alternative markets:

• Correct Score 1-1: Multiple sources, including Stats Insider’s predictive model, suggest a 1-1 draw as a probable outcome. This would be consistent with both the recent head-to-head draws and both teams’ scoring patterns.
• Ante Budimir to Score Anytime: As Osasuna’s primary goal threat, Budimir represents the visitors’ most likely path to a goal. Odds of 2.88 offer value for a player of his caliber.
• Total Corners Under 9.5: Corner statistics suggest a moderate number of set-piece opportunities, with both teams averaging combined corner counts that typically fall below this line.

Final Match Prediction

After thorough analysis of all available data—including current form, historical head-to-head records, tactical setups, and statistical trends—this match projects as a tight, low-scoring affair that could easily end in a share of the points.

Our Predicted Score: Mallorca 1 – 1 Osasuna

This prediction aligns with several key factors: Mallorca’s respectable home form makes them difficult to beat at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, while Osasuna’s away struggles, particularly in front of goal, will likely limit their attacking output. The historical prevalence of draws in this fixture further supports this outlook.

The most probable scenario involves Mallorca taking the initiative as the home team, but Osasuna’s defensive organization proving resilient enough to secure a valuable away point. A moment of individual quality from either side’s key attackers—most likely Muriqi for Mallorca or Budimir for Osasuna—could prove decisive, but the overall balance points toward a stalemate.

Conclusion

The Mallorca vs Osasuna clash represents a classic mid-table La Liga encounter where the points are crucial for both teams’ aspirations. While Mallorca enters as slight favorites due to home advantage and better recent form, Osasuna’s resilience and the historical balance between these sides suggest a closely fought contest.

For bettors, the most value appears to lie with the Draw No Bet on Mallorca and the Under 2.5 Goals markets, both of which are strongly supported by the available statistical evidence. As always with sports betting, it’s crucial to gamble responsibly, within your means, and to remember that no prediction can ever be guaranteed in the beautiful game.

Odds are subject to change and should be verified with your chosen bookmaker before placing any wagers. Please gamble responsibly.