Last Updated on July 30, 2026 by Maurya
The 2026/27 FA Cup promises another unpredictable season of giant-killings, dramatic knockout matches and high-pressure encounters at Wembley. Manchester City begin the campaign as defending champions, but Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, Chelsea and Aston Villa are all prominent in the early outright betting market.
Our early FA Cup predictions for 2026/27 identify Arsenal as the most likely winners, Chelsea as an attractive value selection and Aston Villa as one of the strongest dark-horse contenders. However, bettors should remember that the FA Cup is particularly difficult to forecast before the third-round draw.
A difficult away tie, squad rotation or a penalty shootout can eliminate even the strongest team. Successful FA Cup betting therefore requires more than simply backing the club with the best squad.
Expert prediction: Arsenal to win the 2026/27 FA Cup
Best value bet: Chelsea each-way
Dark-horse selection: Aston Villa
Long-shot contender: Brighton & Hove Albion
Odds checked: 30 July 2026
FA Cup Winner Odds 2026/27
Arsenal are the early favourites in the FA Cup outright odds, followed closely by Manchester City and Liverpool. Manchester United, Chelsea and Aston Villa complete the leading group.
The following prices are indicative and may change before the Premier League and Championship clubs begin their campaigns:
| Team | Current Odds | Approximate Implied Probability |
| Arsenal | 9/2 | 18.2% |
| Manchester City | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Liverpool | 13/2 | 13.3% |
| Manchester United | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Chelsea | 17/2 | 10.5% |
| Aston Villa | 12/1 | 7.7% |
Sky Bet listed each-way terms of half the odds for two places when these prices were checked. William Hill and other major bookmakers also had Arsenal at 9/2, Manchester City at 5/1 and Liverpool at 13/2. Odds and each-way conditions can differ between operators, so bettors should compare markets before placing a wager.
The implied probabilities above do not account for the bookmaker’s margin. They should therefore be treated as a way of comparing prices rather than as precise forecasts.
FA Cup Predictions 2026/27
Our pre-season assessment is based on five main factors:
- Overall squad quality and depth
- Recent domestic performance
- Ability to manage fixture congestion
- Tactical suitability for knockout football
- Value offered by the available odds
The draw will eventually become one of the most important variables. Until then, our predictions focus on each team’s likely ability to navigate six knockout rounds after entering the competition proper.
Predicted winner: Arsenal
Best available price: 9/2
Arsenal are our selection to win the 2026/27 FA Cup.
The Gunners enter the new campaign as the reigning Premier League champions after ending their 22-year wait for the title in 2025/26. Their championship success demonstrated consistency, defensive organisation and the ability to handle sustained pressure over an entire season.
Those qualities should transfer well to knockout football. Arsenal have the technical ability to control matches against inferior opposition, while their defensive structure makes them difficult to eliminate in tight encounters against elite clubs.
Squad rotation will be important. Teams competing in the Champions League often make significant changes during the early FA Cup rounds, particularly when fixtures fall close to European or Premier League matches. Arsenal’s chances will depend partly on how strongly they approach the third and fourth rounds.
At 9/2, the price is not especially generous. It represents an implied probability of slightly more than 18%. Nevertheless, Arsenal are a logical favourite because they combine recent league-winning form with a squad capable of competing across multiple competitions.
They may also place greater importance on the FA Cup than clubs whose domestic campaigns begin to fall short of expectations. The opportunity to win two major English trophies in consecutive seasons could ensure the competition remains a priority.
Verdict: The strongest outright selection, although bettors may receive a better price after the third-round draw.
Manchester City: Defending champions with transition risk
Best available price: 5/1
Manchester City defeated Chelsea 1-0 in the 2026 final, with Antoine Semenyo scoring the decisive goal at Wembley. The victory gave City their eighth FA Cup and completed a run of four consecutive final appearances.
Their recent record makes them impossible to dismiss. Few teams possess comparable squad depth, technical quality or experience of winning knockout matches.
However, the 2026/27 campaign also brings uncertainty.
City are beginning a new era under Enzo Maresca following Pep Guardiola’s departure. Maresca has indicated that he intends to preserve the possession-based principles established during Guardiola’s tenure, but even a well-planned managerial transition can affect consistency during the opening months of a season.
The 5/1 price reflects City’s exceptional FA Cup record rather than offering obvious value. Bettors must decide whether a defending champion going through managerial change should be priced almost as closely as the reigning Premier League winners.
City could easily lift the trophy again. However, we prefer Arsenal at a slightly shorter price and Chelsea at longer odds.
Verdict: An obvious contender, but the early odds leave little room for transition-related uncertainty.
Liverpool: High ceiling but draw-dependent
Best available price: 13/2
Liverpool are third in the early market at 13/2.
Their attacking intensity and ability to overwhelm opponents make them dangerous in any knockout competition. Liverpool are particularly difficult to oppose when playing at Anfield, where a favourable home draw can significantly improve their route through the tournament.
The concern is likely to be rotation. Liverpool will expect to compete domestically and in Europe, and the FA Cup may initially sit below the Premier League and Champions League on their list of priorities.
That does not necessarily make Liverpool a poor selection. Their second-choice team should still be capable of defeating most lower-league opponents. Problems are more likely to emerge when a heavily rotated side faces a well-organised Premier League club away from home.
At 13/2, the price is fair rather than outstanding. Liverpool become more attractive if they receive home draws in the third and fourth rounds or if their European schedule becomes less demanding.
Verdict: Strong enough to win, but waiting for the draw could produce a more informed betting opportunity.
Manchester United: Serious contender at 7/1
Best available price: 7/1
Manchester United’s recent history suggests they should always be respected in the FA Cup. They won the competition in 2024 and were third in the 2025/26 Premier League table, behind Arsenal and Manchester City.
United’s price is longer than those of Arsenal, City and Liverpool, creating a potentially attractive middle ground for outright bettors.
A major advantage is their experience of high-pressure cup matches. United may not always dominate possession or produce the most consistent league performances, but knockout football rewards teams capable of surviving difficult periods and converting a small number of decisive opportunities.
The 7/1 odds will look particularly attractive if United are given a manageable route through the early rounds. However, bettors should monitor their winter schedule and whether the manager is regularly rotating key players.
Verdict: One of the more interesting outright options, especially after a favourable third-round draw.
Chelsea: The best value FA Cup bet
Best available price: 17/2
Chelsea are our preferred value bet for the 2026/27 FA Cup.
They reached the 2026 final and were only one goal away from taking Manchester City into extra time. Their ability to progress through the previous competition demonstrates that they already possess a workable formula for cup football.
Chelsea’s large squad can occasionally create problems with consistency, but it also gives them considerable flexibility during a competition that runs alongside league and European fixtures.
They should be able to rotate without experiencing the same decline in quality as many mid-table clubs. Chelsea also possess the individual attacking talent required to decide matches that remain level deep into the second half.
The early price is especially interesting because some bookmakers offer each-way terms covering a place in the final. Under terms of half the odds for two places, an each-way Chelsea bet can produce a return if they finish as runners-up again.
Each-way terms must always be checked carefully. Some operators may change the number of places, fraction of the odds or minimum field requirements.
Chelsea are not our most likely winner, but 17/2 appears more appealing than Manchester City at 5/1 when price and potential are considered together.
Verdict: The best combination of realistic winning potential and early market value.
Aston Villa: Our dark-horse prediction
Best available price: 12/1
Aston Villa are our leading dark-horse selection.
Villa finished fourth in the 2025/26 Premier League, placing them above Liverpool, Chelsea and several other clubs available at similar or shorter FA Cup odds.
Their strongest performances are built on organisation, tactical discipline and direct attacking quality. Those attributes are particularly effective in knockout matches, where controlling space and exploiting transitions can be more valuable than dominating possession.
Villa’s challenge will be balancing domestic, European and cup commitments. Their starting team can compete with the leading contenders, but their depth may be tested if injuries coincide with a demanding fixture schedule.
At 12/1, however, bettors are being compensated for those risks. Villa do not need to be rated as the most likely winners to represent value. They only need to have a greater chance than the price’s implied probability of approximately 7.7%.
Aston Villa could also become an appealing team-to-reach-the-semi-final bet once that market is widely available.
Verdict: The best dark-horse outright selection at a double-figure price.
Other FA Cup Outsiders to Consider
Tottenham Hotspur
Tottenham are expected to be available at approximately 14/1, although prices vary across bookmakers.
Their chances may depend on how the FA Cup fits alongside their league and European objectives. Tottenham have enough attacking quality to defeat any opponent, but outright backers need evidence that they can produce disciplined performances across multiple knockout rounds.
They are worth monitoring rather than backing immediately.
Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton have been quoted at approximately 22/1 to 25/1 in the early market.
That price places them among the most interesting long-shot contenders. Brighton finished eighth in the 2025/26 Premier League and qualified for European competition, confirming their ability to compete in the upper section of the table.
Their progressive style can cause major problems for stronger teams, particularly when opponents rotate. However, the additional European workload could stretch their squad.
Brighton are better suited to a small speculative bet or a later wager to reach the quarter-finals than a large outright stake.
Newcastle United
Newcastle’s early price does not appear especially attractive given the uncertainty surrounding their managerial and playing structure. A team undergoing significant change can still enjoy a cup run, but the outright market may not fully reflect the additional risk.
Newcastle should be reassessed once their new manager, final squad and early-season form become clearer.
Best FA Cup Bets for 2026/27
- Arsenal to win the FA Cup at 9/2
Arsenal are the most complete pre-season selection. They are the reigning Premier League champions, have an established tactical identity and possess the squad quality required to defeat both defensive underdogs and elite opponents.
The price is relatively short, so consider waiting until the third-round draw before committing a full stake.
- Chelsea each-way at 17/2
Chelsea’s run to the 2026 final makes them a credible repeat finalist. Their price offers more potential value than the odds available on the three market leaders.
This bet is most appealing when the bookmaker pays two places at half the outright odds.
- Aston Villa to win at 12/1
Villa offer the strongest double-figure combination of league quality, tactical organisation and knockout potential.
A smaller stake is sensible because they may face greater squad-management challenges than Arsenal, City or Chelsea.
- Brighton at approximately 22/1 to 25/1
Brighton are a speculative outsider rather than a primary recommendation. They could outperform their price if they receive favourable early home draws.
Alternatives include backing them to reach the quarter-finals or semi-finals once those markets become available.
- Back lower-league teams with a handicap
One of the most effective FA Cup strategies is backing a competitive lower-league side with a positive Asian handicap against a heavily rotated Premier League opponent.
Markets such as +1.5 goals allow the underdog to lose by one goal while the bet still wins. This can be preferable to backing an unlikely outright upset.
The approach is most effective when:
- The favourite is expected to rotate heavily
- The underdog has strong home form
- The pitch or weather reduces the technical advantage
- The lower-league club is experienced and physically competitive
- The favourite has an important league or European match approaching
Important FA Cup Dates 2026/27
The competition begins with the Extra Preliminary Round on Saturday 8 August 2026. The First Round Proper is scheduled for Saturday 7 November, while the Third Round Proper will take place around Saturday 9 January 2027.
The quarter-finals are scheduled for Saturday 3 April 2027, and the final will be played at Wembley on Saturday 22 May 2027.
| Stage | Scheduled Date |
| Extra Preliminary Round | 8 August 2026 |
| Preliminary Round | 22 August 2026 |
| First Round Proper | 7 November 2026 |
| Second Round Proper | 5 December 2026 |
| Third Round Proper | 9 January 2027 |
| Quarter-finals | 3 April 2027 |
| Final | 22 May 2027 |
Dates and kick-off times can be adjusted for broadcasting or operational reasons.
How the FA Cup Format Affects Betting
The 2026/27 competition proper is a straight knockout tournament. If a match is level after 90 minutes, it proceeds to extra time and, if necessary, penalties.
Replays remain possible during the qualifying competition up to and including the Fourth Round Qualifying. There are no replays in the Competition Proper.
This format has several betting implications.
Penalty preparation matters
Goalkeepers with strong penalty records and teams with reliable takers may have a small but important advantage. Outright bets are settled on which team progresses, but match-winner markets may exclude extra time and penalties.
Always check whether a market covers:
- 90 minutes only
- Qualification
- Extra time
- Penalty shootouts
Underdogs have a better opportunity
Without a replay, a lower-league team only needs to survive one match. A disciplined defensive performance can take a stronger opponent into extra time or penalties.
This increases the appeal of handicap, double-chance and qualification markets.
Home advantage can be decisive
A Premier League side playing at home against lower-league opposition will normally be priced extremely short. The same tie at a compact lower-league stadium may be significantly more competitive.
Rather than betting immediately after the draw, consider how the venue, pitch, crowd and expected team selections affect the true probability of an upset.
FA Cup Betting Tips
Wait for confirmed line-ups
Rotation is one of the biggest variables during the third and fourth rounds. Betting several days before kick-off can be risky when a favourite is expected to rest most of its regular starters.
Waiting for the team sheets may mean accepting slightly shorter odds, but it provides much better information.
Compare qualification and match-result markets
A team can qualify after drawing the match over 90 minutes. Bettors backing a favourite in the traditional match-result market may lose even when that club eventually progresses.
When a tie appears likely to be close, “to qualify” can be safer than backing the 90-minute result.
Avoid blindly backing short-priced favourites
A price of 1/5 or 1/6 may look secure, but the potential return is small compared with the risk created by rotation and knockout variance.
Alternatives include:
- Favourite to win and over 2.5 goals
- Favourite with a negative handicap
- Underdog with a positive handicap
- Both teams to score
- Second-half result markets
Monitor fixture congestion
Teams involved in Europe may play important matches immediately before or after an FA Cup tie. Managers are more likely to rotate when a cup fixture is positioned between major league or European games.
The strongest betting opportunities often appear when bookmakers underestimate the extent of the expected changes.
Update outright positions after every draw
An outright price should always be considered alongside a team’s route to Wembley.
A 9/2 favourite facing a difficult away match may be less attractive than a 12/1 outsider drawn at home against lower-league opposition. The best time to enter the outright market is often immediately after the draw but before bookmakers fully adjust their prices.
Who Will Win the FA Cup 2026/27?
Our prediction is Arsenal.
The reigning Premier League champions have the best balance of squad depth, tactical stability, defensive quality and high-level knockout experience. Manchester City remain an obvious threat, while Chelsea offer the most attractive value at the available prices.
Aston Villa are the standout dark horse, particularly if they receive favourable early draws and avoid major injuries.
Final predicted finishing order
- Arsenal
- Chelsea
- Manchester City
- Manchester United
- Aston Villa
- Liverpool
This ranking represents our assessment before the third-round draw. The order should be reviewed once opponents, venues, winter form and injury situations are known.
FAQs
Who are the favourites to win the 2026/27 FA Cup?
Arsenal are the early favourites at approximately 9/2. Manchester City are next at 5/1, followed by Liverpool at 13/2 and Manchester United at 7/1.
Who won the FA Cup in 2026?
Manchester City won the 2025/26 FA Cup by beating Chelsea 1-0 at Wembley. Antoine Semenyo scored the only goal of the final.
What is the best FA Cup bet?
Our leading outright bet is Arsenal to win at 9/2. Chelsea each-way at 17/2 is the preferred value selection, subject to the bookmaker offering suitable place terms.
Which team is the best FA Cup outsider?
Aston Villa are the strongest dark-horse option at approximately 12/1. Brighton are a more speculative long-shot selection at around 22/1 to 25/1.
When is the 2027 FA Cup final?
The 2026/27 FA Cup final is scheduled to take place at Wembley Stadium on Saturday, 22 May 2027.
Are there replays in the FA Cup?
Replays apply to drawn matches up to and including the Fourth Round Qualifying. Matches in the Competition Proper go to extra time and penalties if they are level after 90 minutes.
