Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Jets Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips

The National Football League’s Week 5 schedule features an intriguing interconference matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Jets, set to take place on Sunday, October 5, 2025, at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET, with the game broadcast on FOX. This contest pits a Dallas team seeking to build momentum against a New York squad desperate for its first victory of the season. As of the latest available data, the Cowboys hold a record of 1-2-1, placing them third in the NFC East, while the Jets stand at 0-4, ranking last in the AFC East.

This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the upcoming game, including team performances, key player insights, injury updates, historical context, current betting odds, expert predictions, and strategic betting recommendations. The objective is to equip readers with informed perspectives to enhance their understanding and engagement with this NFL encounter.

Overview of the Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys enter this game following a dramatic 40-40 tie against the Green Bay Packers in Week 4. This result highlights both the team’s offensive capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities. Quarterback Dak Prescott has demonstrated efficiency, completing 72.9% of his passes for 1,119 yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions through the first four games. His performance underscores Dallas’s potent passing attack, which ranks among the league’s top units in yards per play at 6.1.

On the ground, running back Javonte Williams has emerged as a key contributor, accumulating 312 rushing yards on 63 carries with four touchdowns, averaging 78.0 yards per game. Complementing him is Miles Sanders, who has added 117 yards and one touchdown on 20 attempts. The receiving corps is led by CeeDee Lamb, though his availability is in question due to an ankle injury. In Lamb’s potential absence, players like Josh Reynolds could see increased targets, with projections estimating 2.2 receptions for him in this matchup.

Defensively, the Cowboys have struggled significantly, allowing the most yards in the NFL at 6.6 per play and ranking last in passing yards conceded (297.3 per game). They also sit 31st in run defense according to advanced metrics. These issues have contributed to Dallas surrendering an average of 33.0 points per game, placing them 31st in scoring defense. The absence of a consistent pass rush has been particularly problematic, as evidenced by their inability to contain mobile quarterbacks in recent outings.

Injury concerns loom large for Dallas, with 17 players listed on the latest report. Notable entries include offensive lineman Tyler Smith (knee), wide receiver KaVontae Turpin (foot), and linebacker Kenneth Murray (shoulder). Defensive end Marshawn Kneeland was recently added due to an undisclosed issue. Additionally, players on injured reserve, such as cornerback Caelen Carson and wide receiver Jonathan Mingo, further deplete the roster. These absences could impact both protection for Prescott and containment of the Jets’ offense.

Overview of the New York Jets

The New York Jets are enduring a challenging start to the 2025 season, remaining winless after a 27-21 defeat to the Miami Dolphins in Week 4. Quarterback Justin Fields has shown flashes of potential, completing 20 of 27 passes for 226 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions in the loss, while adding 81 rushing yards and another score. However, the offense as a whole has been inconsistent, ranking poorly in key efficiency metrics.

Running back Breece Hall leads the ground game with 81 yards on 14 carries in the most recent game, averaging 5.8 yards per attempt. The receiving group includes Garrett Wilson, who will be a focal point against Dallas’s vulnerable secondary. The Jets’ defense, however, has been a bright spot in some areas but ranks 25th against the run (130.5 yards allowed per game) and 14th against the pass (199.8 yards). Overall, they concede 30.0 points per contest, placing them 28th in the league.

Injuries have compounded New York’s difficulties, with key players like linebacker Jermaine Johnson (ankle), cornerback Michael Carter II (concussion), and running back Braelon Allen (knee) listed. Linebacker Quincy Williams is on injured reserve with a shoulder issue, eligible to return in Week 8. These setbacks have led to mental errors and sloppy play, as noted in analyses of their defensive performance.

Head-to-Head History

The Dallas Cowboys hold an 8-5 advantage in the all-time series against the New York Jets, dating back to 1971. However, recent encounters favor New York, with the Jets winning three of the last four matchs. The most recent game in 2023 saw Dallas prevail 30-10, but prior contests in 2019, 2015, and 2011 went to the Jets by scores of 24-22, 19-16, and 27-24, respectively.

Dallas has a 4-1-1 record against the spread in its last six games versus New York, but the Cowboys are 2-5 straight up in their last seven road games. This historical context suggests a competitive affair, particularly given the Jets’ home-field advantage at MetLife Stadium.

Current Betting Odds and Lines

As of October 3, 2025, the Dallas Cowboys are listed as 2.5-point favorites over the New York Jets. The moneyline stands at -142 for Dallas and +120 for New York, implying a 58.7% win probability for the Cowboys. The over/under total is set at 47.5 points, reflecting expectations of a high-scoring game given both teams’ defensive struggles.

Dallas has covered the spread in two of four games this season but has yet to do so as a favorite of 2.5 points or more. The Cowboys’ games have gone over the total in two of four contests. New York, meanwhile, has two covers against the spread but remains winless straight up.

Expert Predictions and Analysis

Expert opinions on this matchup are divided, with a slight lean toward the Cowboys. ESPN’s matchup predictor assigns a 55% win probability to Dallas. Picks from USA TODAY favor the Cowboys to cover the -2.5 spread, citing New York’s offensive inconsistencies and Dallas’s superior quarterback play. However, some analysts, including those at Covers, recommend the Jets +2.5 as a home underdog, anticipating a flat performance from Dallas following their emotional tie.

NBC Sports leans toward Dallas -2.5 against the spread, emphasizing the Cowboys’ offensive edge against a Jets defense ranked 30th in expected points added (EPA) allowed. FOX Sports highlights the potential for a high-scoring affair, backing the over due to both teams’ defensive rankings. Picks and Parlays predicts a 24-20 Cowboys victory, covering the spread and staying under the total.

Bold predictions include Javonte Williams scoring an anytime touchdown, given his 55% projected probability and the Jets’ run defense weaknesses. Additionally, Josh Reynolds is expected to exceed 1.5 receptions, particularly if Lamb is limited.

Betting Tips and Strategies

For bettors considering this game, several strategies merit attention. First, the spread: Given Dallas’s road struggles and New York’s home underdog status, the Jets +2.5 offers value, especially with a projected close contest. The moneyline at +120 for New York could appeal to those betting on an upset, leveraging the Jets’ recent success in this series.

The over/under presents another opportunity. Both defenses rank poorly—Dallas first in yards allowed, New York 30th in EPA—suggesting points could accumulate. The over 47.5 has hit in 13 of Dallas’s last 20 games. Player props provide targeted bets: Javonte Williams anytime touchdown at +100 carries a 10% mathematical edge. Josh Reynolds over 1.5 receptions (-102) benefits from a 28.7% edge due to potential increased snaps.

Teasers involving the Cowboys and other games, such as pairing with the under in another matchup, could mitigate risk. Always compare lines across sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings for optimal value. Responsible wagering is essential; consider factors like weather and last-minute injury updates.

Final Prediction

Based on the available data, the Dallas Cowboys are predicted to edge out the New York Jets by a score of 27-24. This outcome covers the -2.5 spread for Dallas and pushes the total over 47.5. The Cowboys’ offensive firepower, led by Prescott and Williams, should exploit New York’s defensive lapses, despite Dallas’s own vulnerabilities. However, the Jets’ resilience at home and Fields’ dual-threat ability could keep the game competitive.

In conclusion, this matchup offers compelling narratives for fans and bettors alike. The Cowboys aim to solidify their position in the NFC, while the Jets seek to reverse their fortunes. Monitoring injury reports and line movements will be crucial in the lead-up to kickoff.