Last Updated on July 26, 2026 by Maurya
Sri Lanka Women and Pakistan Women meet in a fascinating series decider at the Mahinda Rajapaksa International Cricket Stadium in Hambantota on Tuesday, July 28, 2026.
The Sri Lanka Women vs Pakistan Women 3rd ODI is scheduled to begin at 10:00 AM local time and 5:30 AM BST. More importantly, the contest will decide the three-match ODI series after each team produced one convincing victory in the opening two games.
Pakistan struck first by winning the opening ODI by five wickets. Sri Lanka responded emphatically in the second match, successfully chasing 274 with eight wickets and 19 deliveries remaining. The series is therefore tied at 1-1 ahead of Tuesday’s deciding fixture.
Home conditions, superior historical results and the quality of Sri Lanka’s performance in the second ODI make Chamari Athapaththu’s team the slight favourite. Pakistan, however, have already demonstrated that they can control an ODI at this venue and possess several batters capable of producing a match-winning innings.
Our early prediction gives Sri Lanka Women a 58% probability of winning, compared with 42% for Pakistan Women. That assessment may change after the toss, particularly because the chasing team has won both matches in the series.
Match Details
| Match | Sri Lanka Women vs Pakistan Women, 3rd ODI |
| Series | Pakistan Women’s Tour of Sri Lanka 2026 |
| Date | Tuesday, July 28, 2026 |
| UK start time | 5:30 AM BST |
| Local start time | 10:00 AM |
| Venue | Mahinda Rajapaksa International Cricket Stadium, Hambantota |
| Format | Women’s One Day International |
| Series position | Tied 1-1 |
| Predicted winner | Sri Lanka Women |
| Confidence level | Moderate |
| Best early betting angle | Sri Lanka Women at 1.80 or higher |
The three ODIs are part of the ICC Women’s Championship 2025–2029 cycle. Sri Lanka Cricket confirmed that all three matches would take place in Hambantota on July 23, 25 and 28.
Sri Lanka Women vs Pakistan Women Odds
A dependable consensus price for the third ODI was not widely available at the time of publication. The following figures are therefore analytical fair odds, rather than live prices from a particular bookmaker.
Fair odds represent the price at which neither selection offers a theoretical advantage according to our probability assessment.
| Team | Win probability | Fair decimal odds | Suggested value price |
| Sri Lanka Women | 58% | 1.72 | 1.80 or higher |
| Pakistan Women | 42% | 2.38 | 2.50 or higher |
How to Use These Odds
If Sri Lanka are offered at 1.80, the price represents an implied probability of approximately 55.6%. As our assessment gives them a 58% chance, that would create a small potential value margin.
A price such as 1.55 would imply that Sri Lanka have roughly a 64.5% chance of winning. That would be considerably higher than our estimate, making the hosts too short to support before the toss.
Pakistan become more interesting at 2.50 or above, particularly if they win the toss and choose to chase. At shorter prices, their inconsistent bowling performance in the second ODI makes them difficult to recommend.
Odds can move significantly following team announcements, weather updates and the toss. Check the latest market before placing a wager and avoid treating estimated fair odds as guaranteed bookmaker prices.
Series Recap: Honours Even After Two Matches
The opening two ODIs have shown why this series is difficult to price aggressively. Pakistan were clearly superior in the first match, while Sri Lanka dominated the second.
First ODI: Pakistan Win by Five Wickets
Sri Lanka batted first in the opening ODI and reached 210/9 from their 50 overs. Pakistan’s left-arm spinner Nashra Sandhu was instrumental in restricting the hosts, finishing with figures of 3/42.
Pakistan then completed the chase in only 43 overs. Gull Feroza played the defining innings, scoring 78 from 77 deliveries with 11 boundaries. Sidra Ameen provided stability with 52 as Pakistan reached 211/5 and secured a five-wicket victory.
The result demonstrated three important factors:
- Pakistan’s top order can score quickly when the new ball offers limited movement.
- Nashra Sandhu is capable of controlling Sri Lanka through the middle overs.
- A total close to 210 is unlikely to be sufficient on a settled Hambantota surface.
Second ODI: Sri Lanka Chase 274 With Ease
Pakistan produced a much stronger batting performance in the second ODI, making 273/5 after being asked to bat.
Sidra Ameen followed her half-century in the opening match with an outstanding unbeaten 100 from 120 deliveries. She struck 13 boundaries and held Pakistan’s innings together after two early wickets.
Despite posting what appeared to be a competitive score, Pakistan were unable to contain Sri Lanka.
Vishmi Gunaratne struck 123 from 123 balls, while Harshitha Samarawickrama made an unbeaten 100. Their double-century partnership effectively decided the match before Kavisha Dilhari helped complete the chase at 275/2 in 46.5 overs.
Sri Lanka’s response was one of the most convincing performances of the series. The hosts lost only two wickets while maintaining the required scoring rate throughout the chase.
Match Prediction
Prediction: Sri Lanka Women to win
Projected winning probability: Sri Lanka Women 58% – Pakistan Women 42%
Sri Lanka deserve to begin as narrow favourites, but this is not a one-sided matchup.
The hosts possess a more balanced batting order and showed in the second ODI that they do not need Chamari Athapaththu to score heavily in order to complete a difficult chase. Vishmi Gunaratne, Harshitha Samarawickrama and Kavisha Dilhari give the side considerably more depth than a team built around one star player.
Sri Lanka also entered the tour above Pakistan in the published ODI rankings. A pre-series report placed Sri Lanka sixth and Pakistan eighth, while also highlighting Sri Lanka’s stronger historical head-to-head position.
Pakistan should not be underestimated. They won the opening game convincingly and have received major contributions from Gull Feroza and Sidra Ameen. The primary concern is their bowling attack.
After successfully defending the structure of the game in the first ODI, Pakistan took only two wickets while attempting to defend 273 in the second. Their spinners struggled to separate Vishmi and Harshitha, while the fielding side was unable to create sustained pressure through dot balls.
Sri Lanka’s familiarity with the venue, stronger response under pressure and deeper group of in-form batters provide the deciding edge.
Why Sri Lanka Women Are Slight Favourites
- Stronger Home-Conditions Advantage
All three ODIs are being played at the same Hambantota venue. Sri Lanka have now experienced two full matches on the surface and made an excellent tactical adjustment after losing the opening game.
Their batters were more selective against Pakistan’s slower bowlers in the second match, rotating the strike instead of allowing the required rate to rise.
- Multiple In-Form Batters
Sri Lanka’s second-ODI victory was not dependent on Athapaththu. Vishmi Gunaratne scored 123, Harshitha Samarawickrama finished unbeaten on 100 and Kavisha Dilhari contributed an effective finishing innings.
That performance suggests Sri Lanka have several routes to victory.
- Better Batting Depth
Pakistan’s batting has been competitive, but much of their success has come from Gull Feroza and Sidra Ameen.
Sri Lanka can call upon Athapaththu, Vishmi, Harshitha, Dilhari and Nilakshi de Silva in their top and middle order. Anushka Sanjeewani also gives the side additional experience behind the recognised batters.
- Momentum From a Record-Level Chase
Successfully chasing 274 for the loss of only two wickets should give Sri Lanka considerable confidence. The hosts did not merely win the second ODI; they controlled the chase for most of the innings.
How Pakistan Women Can Win the Third ODI
Pakistan’s chances should not be dismissed at 42%. Fatima Sana’s team can win the series if it addresses several tactical issues.
First, Pakistan need early wickets. Allowing Sri Lanka’s top order to settle proved costly in the second ODI. Nashra Sandhu and Fatima Sana must attack the stumps and force the batters to play before conditions become easier.
Second, Pakistan need more support around Sidra Ameen. Sidra has recorded scores of 52 and 100 not out in the series, making her Pakistan’s most reliable batter. However, a match-winning total will probably require at least two major partnerships.
Gull Feroza demonstrated her attacking ability with 78 in the first ODI. If Gull and Sidra both pass 40, Pakistan will have a realistic opportunity to score above 270 again.
Finally, Pakistan must improve their fielding intensity. Against a Sri Lankan batting order that rotates the strike effectively, saved singles and pressure-building overs can be as valuable as boundaries prevented.
Hambantota Pitch Report
The first two matches indicate that Hambantota is offering a generally fair batting surface.
Sri Lanka scored 210/9 in the opening game, but Pakistan chased the target in 43 overs. Pakistan then improved to 273/5 in the second ODI, only for Sri Lanka to reach 275/2 with more than three overs remaining.
The average first-innings score across those matches is 241.5, while the team batting second has won both contests.
The evidence suggests that the ball can offer some assistance early in the innings before batting becomes more comfortable. Players who survive the opening powerplay have been able to build substantial scores.
There has also been enough pace in the surface for confident stroke play. However, spinners remain important during the middle overs because the large ground dimensions can make boundary-hitting more difficult when the bowling is disciplined.
Expected Pitch Behaviour
- Some new-ball assistance during the first five to ten overs
- Best batting conditions once the ball becomes older
- Value for batters who rotate the strike
- Spinners likely to control the middle overs
- A first-innings score of 250 to 270 should be competitive
- Totals below 235 may be difficult to defend
The toss winner is likely to consider bowling first, especially with possible afternoon showers in the forecast.
Hambantota Weather Forecast
Conditions are forecast to be warm and mostly cloudy during the early part of the match, with temperatures rising from approximately 30°C at the scheduled start toward 32°C during the afternoon.
Rain or showers are possible at around 2:00 PM local time, creating some risk of an interruption during the second innings.
The possibility of rain strengthens the argument for chasing. A team batting second has greater visibility over the required rate if the Duckworth–Lewis–Stern method comes into play.
Forecasts can change quickly, so bettors should check the latest radar and official match updates on Tuesday morning.
Probable Playing XI
Sri Lanka made effective changes for the second ODI and are unlikely to alter a winning combination without a fitness concern.
Sri Lanka Women Probable XI
- Chamari Athapaththu (captain)
- Vishmi Gunaratne
- Harshitha Samarawickrama
- Hasini Perera
- Kavisha Dilhari
- Nilakshi de Silva
- Anushka Sanjeewani (wicketkeeper)
- Dewmi Vihanga
- Rashmika Sewwandi
- Chethana Vimukthi
- Inoka Ranaweera
Pakistan Women Probable XI
- Gull Feroza
- Sadaf Shamas
- Sidra Ameen
- Ayesha Zafar
- Muneeba Ali
- Najiha Alvi (wicketkeeper)
- Fatima Sana (captain)
- Syeda Aroob Shah
- Nashra Sandhu
- Umm-e-Hani
- Tasmia Rubab
These combinations are based on the teams used in the second ODI and remain subject to confirmation at the toss.
Key Players to Watch
Vishmi Gunaratne
Vishmi enters the decider after scoring 123 in the second ODI. Her ability to combine low-risk strike rotation with boundary-hitting makes her particularly valuable in Hambantota.
Pakistan must dismiss her during the powerplay rather than allowing her to establish another long partnership.
Harshitha Samarawickrama
Harshitha’s unbeaten century was a technically controlled innings. She absorbed pressure, found gaps through the middle overs and accelerated without taking unnecessary risks.
Her current form makes her one of the strongest candidates in Sri Lanka top-batter and runs markets.
Sidra Ameen
Sidra has been Pakistan’s most consistent batter, scoring 52 in the opening match and an unbeaten 100 in the second.
She is technically equipped to bat for long periods and appears to read Sri Lanka’s spin attack better than many of her teammates. Pakistan’s chance of winning increases considerably if Sidra bats beyond the 30th over.
Gull Feroza
Gull’s 78 in the first ODI demonstrated the value of positive batting during the powerplay.
Her contest against Sri Lanka’s new-ball bowlers could determine whether Pakistan establish an early advantage or expose their middle order before the field spreads.
Nashra Sandhu
Nashra’s 3/42 was central to Pakistan’s opening victory. However, she was unable to reproduce that influence in the second game, conceding 60 runs for one wicket from her ten overs.
Pakistan need their leading spinner to control the scoring rate and break partnerships in the decider.
Chamari Athapaththu
Sri Lanka have levelled the series without a defining performance from their captain. That makes Athapaththu both a risk and an opportunity for Pakistan.
She remains capable of changing a match during the powerplay and could be dangerous after two relatively quiet appearances.
Betting Tips
- Sri Lanka Women to Win
Recommended price: 1.80 or higher
Sri Lanka are the selection, but price discipline is important. Their dominant second-ODI performance, batting depth and home advantage justify favouritism, although Pakistan’s first-match victory prevents this from being a high-confidence prediction.
A price below 1.65 would offer limited value according to our assessment.
Suggested stake: 1 unit
- Sidra Ameen to Score 30 or More Runs
Sidra has passed 50 in both matches of the series, registering 52 and 100 not out.
A lower runs line may still be attractive because of her secure position near the top of Pakistan’s order. This market should be approached with a smaller stake because one early delivery can decide any individual-batter wager.
Suggested stake: 0.5 units
- Harshitha Samarawickrama Top Sri Lanka Batter
Harshitha enters the match after an unbeaten century and appears particularly comfortable against Pakistan’s spin attack.
Vishmi Gunaratne and Chamari Athapaththu create strong competition, so this is a higher-variance selection rather than the principal bet.
Suggested stake: 0.25 units
- Consider the Team Chasing After the Toss
Both matches have been won by the side batting second. Possible afternoon rain could also make chasing tactically favourable.
This does not mean the chasing team should be backed automatically. The decision should depend on the available price, confirmed line-ups and any change in pitch conditions.
A sensible in-play approach would be to consider the chasing side when the target is no higher than approximately 260 and early wickets have been avoided.
Bets to Avoid
Toss Winner
The toss is essentially a 50-50 event. Unless a bookmaker offers an obvious pricing error, there is no meaningful analytical edge.
Large Pre-Match Handicaps
The teams have exchanged convincing victories, making aggressive handicaps risky. Pakistan won the first match by five wickets before Sri Lanka won the second by eight wickets.
Excessive Same-Game Multiples
Combining several correlated selections may create an attractive headline price, but bookmaker margins compound across each leg. A straightforward match-winner bet generally offers better transparency.
Final Verdict
Sri Lanka Women responded impressively after losing the opening ODI and now carry the stronger momentum into the series decider.
Vishmi Gunaratne and Harshitha Samarawickrama showed that Sri Lanka possess major run-scoring options beyond Chamari Athapaththu. Their successful chase of 274 also suggests the home side have adapted better to the Hambantota surface.
Pakistan remain dangerous through Sidra Ameen, Gull Feroza, Fatima Sana and Nashra Sandhu. If their bowlers take two or three wickets in the opening 15 overs, the visitors can bring Sri Lanka’s less-tested lower order into the contest.
Nevertheless, Sri Lanka’s batting depth, home familiarity and more dominant performance in the second ODI give them a narrow but meaningful advantage.
Final match prediction: Sri Lanka Women to win
Predicted probabilities: Sri Lanka Women 58% – Pakistan Women 42%
Best bet: Sri Lanka Women at decimal odds of 1.80 or higher
Predicted first-innings range: 245–270
Most likely match scenario: A close contest decided during the final ten overs of the chase
FAQs
Who will win Sri Lanka Women vs Pakistan Women 3rd ODI?
Sri Lanka Women are the predicted winners with an estimated 58% chance of victory. Pakistan Women have a 42% chance and remain capable of winning if their top order performs and their bowlers take early wickets.
What time does Sri Lanka Women vs Pakistan Women start?
The match begins at 10:00 AM local time in Hambantota and 5:30 AM BST on Tuesday, July 28, 2026.
Where is the third ODI being played?
The match will take place at the Mahinda Rajapaksa International Cricket Stadium in Hambantota, Sri Lanka.
What is the series score?
The three-match series is tied 1-1. Pakistan won the opening ODI by five wickets before Sri Lanka won the second match by eight wickets.
What are the fair odds for the match?
Our probability model produces fair decimal odds of 1.72 for Sri Lanka and 2.38 for Pakistan. These are independently calculated prices and not live bookmaker quotations.
What is the best betting tip?
Sri Lanka Women to win is the preferred selection, but only at approximately 1.80 or higher. Bettors should reconsider the position after the toss and avoid taking a substantially shorter price.
