England vs India 3rd ODI Match Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips

Last Updated on July 17, 2026 by Maurya

The Metro Bank ODI Series is level at 1–1 and it all comes down to Lord’s. India are the marginally stronger side and marginally the wrong price — but Washington Sundar’s hamstring injury has stripped a layer of balance from a tourist XI that was already carrying a misfiring Rohit Sharma. England, meanwhile, are one Joe Root failure away from being found out.

Main bet: India to win the 3rd ODI Best supporting angle: Joe Root to be England’s top batter Confidence: Medium. This is a close-to-coin-flip fixture and should be staked like one.

England vs India 3rd ODI: Key Match Information

⚠️ A note on the fixture number: This match is the third and final ODI, not the second. The 2nd ODI was played on Thursday 16 July at Sophia Gardens, Cardiff, where England won by four wickets. Anyone searching for a “2nd ODI preview” for 19 July is looking at a stale fixture label.

How We Got Here: The Series So Far

1st ODI, Edgbaston (14 July): India won by 6 wickets

India arrived at Edgbaston with their tour in ruins — beaten 2–0 by Ireland, then swept aside 4–0 in the T20I series, a result that also cost them top spot in the ICC T20I rankings. The ODI squad, however, is a different animal, and it showed.

England were 61 without loss before collapsing to 107 for 6. Only a century stand between Joe Root (76*) and Liam Dawson (68) dragged them to 258. Axar Patel was the wrecker with 4 for 62, and Jasprit Bumrah — back in ODI colours — conceded just 31 from nine overs.

India chased it down with 28 balls to spare. Shubman Gill made 80 before retiring hurt with cramps; Axar (57*) and Washington Sundar (52*) finished the job. Axar took the match award. Josh Tongue made his ODI debut.

2nd ODI, Sophia Gardens (16 July): England won by 4 wickets

Harry Brook bowled first and India never got going. Virat Kohli (65) and Shreyas Iyer (66) were the only scores of substance as India were bowled out for 233 inside 44 overs. Jofra Archer took 3 for 47.

England’s chase was chaotic. Bumrah trapped Ben Duckett with the first ball of the innings, Jacob Bethell fell for 4, and the hosts slumped to 53 for 3 and then 125 for 5. Root simply refused to leave. His unbeaten 99 from 133 balls — his fifth consecutive fifty-plus score — carried England home with 35 balls left, via a 72-run stand with Will Jacks (30) and a late cameo from Gus Atkinson (23*), who made 23 of the last 38 runs.

The pattern that matters for bettors: neither side has passed 262. Both games were won by the team batting second. Not a single 300 total in the series.

Team News: The Sundar Blow Changes India’s Shape

India

Washington Sundar is out. Reports from PTI’s Kushan Sarkar confirm the all-rounder has been ruled out of the Lord’s decider after aggravating an existing hamstring problem in Cardiff — he pulled up taking his very first run towards mid-off, batted on heavily strapped for 2, and did not take the field in the second innings.

This is a bigger deal than the scorecard suggests. India defended 234 in Cardiff with only five frontline bowlers. Batting coach Sitanshu Kotak conceded afterwards that losing Sundar mid-innings wrecked the plan for the lower-middle order. Sundar is both a containment option through the middle and genuine batting depth at six or seven. Remove him and India get shorter in both directions.

Other India considerations:

• KL Rahul missed Cardiff with illness (not injury). If cleared, he returns and takes the gloves, with Ishan Kishan the likely man to make way.
• Kuldeep Yadav has not played a single game this series despite being the squad’s premier wrist-spinner — a selection call that has drawn public criticism from R Ashwin. With Sundar out, the case for Kuldeep at Lord’s is now close to unarguable.
• Nitish Kumar Reddy (quadricep) and Harshit Rana remain unavailable. Prince Yadav and Shivam Dube are the cover.
• Shubman Gill came through Cardiff after his Edgbaston cramps and is expected to be fine.

India probable XI: Rohit Sharma, Shubman Gill (c), Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, KL Rahul (wk), Shivam Dube, Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav, Gurnoor Brar, Jasprit Bumrah, Prasidh Krishna

England

England made two changes in Cardiff — Saqib Mahmood and Gus Atkinson replaced Josh Tongue and Liam Dawson — and won. Expect no changes at all.

The one genuine question is Jacob Bethell, who has two failures in two attempts as a 50-over opener. England have persisted with far less. Dawson’s 68 at Edgbaston makes him an obvious recall if they want a second spinner on a dry surface.

England probable XI: Ben Duckett, Jacob Bethell, Joe Root, Harry Brook (c), Jos Buttler (wk), Sam Curran, Will Jacks, Gus Atkinson, Adil Rashid, Jofra Archer, Saqib Mahmood

Squads in full

England (16): Harry Brook (c), Rehan Ahmed, Jofra Archer, Gus Atkinson, Tom Banton, Jacob Bethell, Jos Buttler, James Coles, Sam Curran, Liam Dawson, Ben Duckett, Will Jacks, Saqib Mahmood, Adil Rashid, Joe Root, Josh Tongue

India (15): Shubman Gill (c), Rohit Sharma, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer (vc), KL Rahul (wk), Ishan Kishan (wk), Washington Sundar, Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav, Jasprit Bumrah, Prasidh Krishna, Arshdeep Singh, Gurnoor Brar, Shivam Dube, Prince Yadav

Lord’s Pitch Report & Weather Forecast

Weather

Sunday looks close to ideal. London is forecast to reach roughly 22°C with only a 10% chance of rain. Plan for a full 50-over contest — DLS and reserve-day markets are not where your money should be.

Pitch

Lord’s ODI surfaces are typically fair rather than flat. The famous slope pulls the ball across right-handers from the Pavilion End and into them from the Nursery End, and the new ball has historically done enough in the first ten overs to make batting first a genuine risk in a morning game. Set batters cash in later; the outfield is quick.

The long-run first-innings ODI average at Lord’s sits in the low 230s, but that figure spans five decades and understates modern scoring — you should not treat it as a live projection.

More useful is the evidence from this series: 258, 262, 233, 235. Four innings, no 300s, and two chases completed with overs in hand. Both captains have wanted to bowl. Expect the toss winner to field again.

Par estimate: 260–275. Anything above 280 batting first should be treated as above par.

The Bigger Picture: Why This Match Matters

For England, this is not a dead rubber dressed up as one. They sit eighth in the ICC ODI rankings and are in real danger of missing automatic qualification for the 2027 World Cup in South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia. The top eight (excluding hosts) at the 31 March 2027 cut-off go through directly; everyone else faces a qualifier. Every rating point in every bilateral now counts. Brendon McCullum — sacked as Test coach barely a week ago, but retained across the white-ball formats — needs results.

For India, a series win at Lord’s would salvage a UK tour that began with a humiliation in Belfast and a T20I whitewash. And there is an emotional subplot the market will not ignore.

The Rohit Sharma question

Multiple reports, led by The Indian Express, indicate the BCCI’s selection committee has told Rohit Sharma he is not part of India’s long-term ODI plans beyond this tour, with Yashasvi Jaiswal earmarked for an extended run ahead of the 2027 World Cup. Rohit — already retired from T20Is (2024) and Tests (2025) — reportedly wanted to continue. There is no official confirmation from Rohit or the BCCI, but his parents are reported to have flown to London.

The betting read: sentiment money will flood onto Rohit’s markets. His form does not merit it. He has made 11 and 26 from 47 balls this series, the latter the slowest ODI innings of his career among scores of 25 or more. Popular narratives make bad prices, and a farewell narrative makes the worst prices of all.

Key Battles & Market Movers

Joe Root vs the Indian spinners. Root is the single most important player in this fixture. Five consecutive fifty-plus scores, 175 runs in two innings this series, and roughly 612 runs at an average near 87 across his last ten ODIs. He also owns an ODI century at Lord’s against India (2018). England’s batting without him has produced 61-0 to 107-6 and 125 for 5. This is a one-man dependency and the market knows it.

Virat Kohli’s milestone run. Kohli’s 65 in Cardiff was his 14th fifty-plus score in ODIs against England — level with Viv Richards, one behind Kumar Sangakkara’s record 15. He can equal it on Sunday. In the same innings he passed Rahul Dravid to become India’s leading run-scorer in England across all formats (2,707 in 59 matches), broke Sangakkara’s world record for most ODI runs in an opponent’s home country, and registered a record 30th ODI fifty in SENA nations. He is in form and he is motivated.

Axar Patel vs England’s middle order. Five wickets at 19.40 this series, plus 57* and the match award at Edgbaston. He dismissed Buttler in Cardiff. With Sundar gone, Axar’s overs go up.

Jofra Archer vs the India top order. Archer has 4 wickets at 26.75 in the series and has dismissed Kohli in both games. His last six ODIs read 15 wickets at an economy of 4.46. If Lord’s offers early nip, he is England’s match-winner.

England vs India 3rd ODI Odds

Live prices were not confirmed at the time of writing. Fill the middle column from your own feed before publishing, and treat the right-hand column as our modelled fair value.

For context, the market opened this series with England at 1.90 and India at 2.00 for the Edgbaston opener. India won that comfortably, then lost in Cardiff. A near-pick’em price on Sunday is entirely reasonable.

Our read: if you can get India at 1.95 or bigger, there is value. At 1.80 or shorter, pass — the Sundar absence is worth something and the market should be pricing it.

England vs India 3rd ODI Betting Tips

1. India to win — 2 points

India have the better 50-over side. Their top four (Rohit, Gill, Kohli, Iyer) is stronger than anything England can field, they hold a 62–45 head-to-head edge, and before Cardiff England had lost eight of their previous ten ODIs against them. Cardiff was won by one man playing an innings of extraordinary discipline; that is not a repeatable plan. India’s problems are real but they are problems of depth, not of quality at the top.

2. Joe Root to be England’s top batter — 1.5 points

The most reliable individual angle on the card. Root is in the form of his 50-over life, bats at three, and is the only England batter currently making runs. The price will be short. Take it anyway.

3. Virat Kohli to score 50 or more — 1 point

Form, motivation, a record within reach, and a surface where he has scored before. Kohli’s problem in England has historically been converting; a fifty is a lower bar than a hundred, and he has now cleared it 14 times against this opposition.

4. Axar Patel to be India’s top bowler — 1 point

Leading the series wicket charts, bowling more overs with Sundar out, and operating on a surface where England’s middle order has already fallen to him.

5. Bet builder — 0.5 points

India to win + Joe Root 30 or more + Under 500 total match runs. Consistent with everything the series has shown us: England fight, Root scores, nobody reaches 300, India edge it.

The bet we are not making

Rohit Sharma to top score for India. The story is compelling. The cricket is not. He has looked short of timing all series and the price will be shortened by sentiment. If the retirement reports are true, we would love to be wrong.

England vs India 3rd ODI Prediction

Prediction: India to win by 4 wickets, chasing 260–275.

Expect the toss winner to bowl. Expect Bumrah and Archer to make the first ten overs uncomfortable. Expect Root to be the difference if England win and expect Kohli or Gill to be the difference if India win.

India edge it because their batting has three in-form players to England’s one, and because a fragile England line-up that has twice been reduced to five down inside 26 overs cannot keep relying on the same rescue act. But this is a genuine 50-50 dressed up as a preference. Stake accordingly.

FAQs

What time does the England vs India 3rd ODI start? 11:00 BST on Sunday 19 July 2026 (10:00 GMT, 15:30 IST) at Lord’s.

Is this the 2nd or 3rd ODI? The third and final ODI. The 2nd ODI took place on 16 July in Cardiff, where England won by four wickets.

What is the series score? 1–1. India won the 1st ODI at Edgbaston by six wickets; England won the 2nd at Sophia Gardens by four wickets. Sunday decides it.

Will rain affect the Lord’s ODI? Unlikely. The forecast is around 22°C with roughly a 10% chance of rain. A full 50-over match is expected.

Is Washington Sundar playing? No. Reports indicate he has been ruled out of the decider with a hamstring injury sustained in Cardiff.

Is this Rohit Sharma’s last match? Possibly, but nothing is confirmed. Reports suggest selectors have told him he is outside their 2027 World Cup plans. Neither Rohit nor the BCCI has confirmed a retirement.

Who is favourite for the 3rd ODI? The market is expected to price this close to even. Our model makes India marginal favourites.

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