Australia vs England Ashes 4th Test Odds & Prediction

Last Updated on February 23, 2026 by author

The Ashes urn is locked away in Australian hands for another 18 months, but the contest is far from over. As the storied rivalry moves to the hallowed turf of the Melbourne Cricket Ground for the iconic Boxing Day Test, the stakes have shifted from winning the series to winning respect.

For England, a tour that began with the high hopes of ‘Bazball’ revolutionising cricket down under has dissolved into a fight for survival. Trailing 3-0, they now face the ignominious prospect of another Australian whitewash—a fate that has befallen them twice this century already. For Australia, with captain Pat Cummins and spin king Nathan Lyon sidelined, this match is a chance to prove their dominance runs deeper than just their star players and to edge closer to a 5-0 clean sweep.

This preview dives into the critical team news, the historical weight of the MCG, the latest betting odds, and where the faint glimmer of hope might lie for Ben Stokes’ beleaguered side.

Match at a Glance

• Fixture: Australia vs England, The Ashes 2025/26 – 4th Test
• Date & Time: December 26, 10:30 AM Local (Boxing Day)
• Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG), Melbourne
• Series Status: Australia lead 3-0, having already retained the Ashes urn

Team News & Projected Lineups: Key Absences Reshape the Contest

Australia Squad Update

Australia’s victory comes at a cost. Captain and premier fast bowler Pat Cummins will not feature in Melbourne (or Sydney) as he continues to manage his return from a previous injury. In a more significant blow, veteran off-spinner Nathan Lyon suffered a serious hamstring injury on the final day in Adelaide and has been ruled out for the remainder of the series.

These absences force a reshuffle. Steve Smith is expected to return from illness and will likely captain the side. To cover for Lyon, off-spinner Todd Murphy has been called into the squad and is favoured to make his Ashes debut. Jhye Richardson and Michael Neser are in contention to replace Cummins.

• Projected Australia XI: Travis Head, Jake Weatherald, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith (c), Usman Khawaja, Cameron Green, Alex Carey (wk), Mitchell Starc, Scott Boland, Todd Murphy, Brendan Doggett.

England Squad Update

England’s struggles have been more systemic than injury-related. The spotlight falls heavily on the underperforming top order, particularly Ben Duckett and Ollie Pope. Pope’s twin failures in Adelaide have put his place in serious jeopardy, with young all-rounder Jacob Bethell a likely candidate to come in at number three.

There is also a major question over the workload of Jofra Archer. The fast bowler has been England’s most reliable performer with both bat and ball this series but has carried a monstrous burden. England may consider resting him for either Gus Atkinson or Matthew Potts to inject fresh energy and control into the attack.

• Projected England XI: Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Jacob Bethell, Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes (c), Jamie Smith (wk), Will Jacks, Gus Atkinson, Matthew Potts, Josh Tongue.

The MCG: A Fortress for Australia, a House of Horrors for England

The venue for the Boxing Day Test adds a rich layer of history and psychology to this contest. The numbers make for grim reading if you’re an England supporter.

• Australia’s MCG Dominance: Since England’s last win at the ‘G’ in 2010, Australia have won 10 of 14 Boxing Day Tests at the venue, with their only two defeats in that period coming against India.
• England’s Melbourne Drought: England’s last victory at the MCG was that 2010 match, where Jonathan Trott scored an unbeaten 168. Since then, their record reads: played four, lost three, drawn one.
• Boland’s Bogey Ground: No player embodies Australia’s MCG advantage more than local hero Scott Boland. Since the start of 2021, he has taken 46 first-class wickets at the MCG at an average of 16.8. England fans will need no reminder of his famous 6/7 in the second innings the last time these teams met here in 2021, which sealed an innings victory.

For key players, personal milestones are also on the line. Joe Root, England’s talisman, has played 17 Tests in Australia without winning a single one. A Boxing Day century—something he has never scored in five attempts at the MCG—would go a long way to changing that statistic.

Weather, Pitch & Toss: The Tactical Battleground

Understanding the conditions in Melbourne is crucial to predicting how this Test might unfold.

Pitch Report

The MCG pitch has evolved in recent years to offer a more balanced contest. Traditionally, it provides early seam movement and consistent bounce for fast bowlers, particularly in the first session. As the match progresses, the surface tends to flatten out, becoming excellent for batting on days two and three. By days four and five, wear and tear can bring spinners into the game, with footmarks developing outside the right-hander’s off-stump.

The large square boundaries at the MCG reward patient accumulation over aggressive hitting, which could challenge England’s ‘Bazball’ instincts.

Weather Forecast

The forecast for the Test period is largely favourable for cricket. Mostly clear skies are expected with daytime temperatures ranging from 21°C to 30°C. There is a low chance of rain, though some cloud cover could assist swing bowling, especially in the morning sessions.

The Toss

Given the tendency for the pitch to improve for batting, the captain who wins the toss will almost certainly choose to bat first. Setting a total of 300 or more in the first innings has historically been key to establishing control at the MCG.

Betting Odds & Market Analysis

With the series decided, the betting markets reflect Australia’s overwhelming dominance, though England’s odds have shortened slightly due to Australia’s key absences.

Match Winner Odds

The consensus across major bookmakers firmly favours the hosts.

Note: Odds are subject to change. A decimal odds of 1.30 implies an implied probability of approximately 77% for an Australia win.

Series Correct Score Odds

The focus now turns to whether Australia can complete a 5-0 whitewash.

• Australia 5-0: Best odds of 21/20 (approx. 1.91).
• Australia 4-1: Best odds of 11/4 (approx. 3.75).
• Australia 4-0: Best odds of 6/1 (approx. 7.00).

Expert Betting Tips & Value Picks

1. Top England Batter – Joe Root: With Pat Cummins (who has dismissed Root 13 times in Tests) absent, England’s best batter may find more freedom. At odds around 6.00, he represents good value to finally stamp his authority on a Boxing Day Test.
2. Top Australia Bowler – Scott Boland: The MCG is his fortress. With Cummins and Josh Hazlewood out, Boland becomes the leader of the attack on his home ground. Odds of 4.75 for him to be top wicket-taker are very appealing.
3. Player Performance – Jofra Archer Over 3.5 Match Wickets: Archer has been England’s standout bowler. In what may be a more bowler-friendly MCG pitch, backing him to take 4 or more wickets in the match is a solid play.

Prediction: Can England Stop the Juggernaut?

On paper, and according to the odds, this is Australia’s Test to lose. They are at home, in devastating form, and even without Cummins and Lyon, they possess a potent attack led by Starc and Boland on a ground they own. Travis Head and Steve Smith are in the runs, and the confidence within the camp is sky-high.

Yet, cricket is played on grass, not paper. England showed flickers of fight in Adelaide, taking the game to a fifth day and losing by a “respectable” 82 runs—their smallest losing margin in Australia in 18 Tests. Freed from the pressure of the series, and with nothing left to lose, they might finally play the fearless cricket they are known for.

However, history, statistics, and current form point overwhelmingly in one direction. Australia’s record at the MCG is formidable, and Scott Boland lying in wait for an unsettled English top order is a nightmare scenario for the tourists.

Prediction: Australia to win. England may put up a better fight, and a draw is a possibility if they bat with immense discipline, but the Australian juggernaut, powered by local knowledge and a relentless desire to inflict a whitewash, is likely to roll on. The scoreboard is expected to tick over to 4-0, setting up a grand finale in Sydney where the 5-0 sweep will be on the line.