Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: Expert Prediction, Odds, and Betting Tips

The MLS Cup Playoffs deliver a gripping Ohio derby as Columbus Crew host FC Cincinnati at Lower.com Field in a high-stakes Round One clash. With Cincinnati leading the series 1-0 after a narrow victory just days ago, this second match becomes a must-win for the Crew to keep their season alive. This preview provides an in-depth analysis of the teams, expert predictions, and essential betting tips for this electrifying playoff encounter.

Match Overview and Playoff Stakes

The Audi 2025 MLS Cup Playoffs feature a thrilling in-state rivalry that promises tension, drama, and high-quality soccer. On Sunday, November 2, 2025, the Columbus Crew will face off against FC Cincinnati at Lower.com Field in Columbus, with kick-off scheduled for 23:30 UTC. This match is the second game of their playoff series, adding a layer of strategic complexity not seen in standalone regular-season matches.

The stakes could not be higher. FC Cincinnati currently leads the series 1-0 after securing a 1-0 victory in the first leg on October 27, with Kevin Denkey scoring the sole goal in the 78th minute. This result means Columbus must win this second leg to force a decisive Game 3 in the series. For the Crew, a loss would mark their first elimination in the first round since 2011, adding immense pressure to perform in front of their home supporters.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, arrives with confidence, aiming to advance to the conference semifinals for the first time since 2023. Their strong regular-season form and Game 1 victory position them favorably, but overcoming the Crew at Lower.com Field remains a significant challenge.

Team Analysis: Recent Form and Performance

Columbus Crew (7th in Eastern Conference, 54 Points)

The Crew endured a challenging conclusion to the regular season, winning just two of their final ten matches to finish seventh in the Eastern Conference with 54 points—their lowest points tally since 2022. This late-season slump has raised concerns about their playoff viability, particularly against a dominant Cincinnati side.

Recent performances highlight Columbus’s struggles:

• The team has won only one of their last six matches and just two of their previous ten.
• Defensive solidity has been a significant issue, with the Crew without a clean sheet in their last seven games and managing just one in their last ten.
• In their last six matches, Columbus has conceded goals in six of them, letting in nine goals total during this period.

Despite these challenges, Columbus remains a formidable opponent at Lower.com Field, where they’ll be fueled by a passionate home crowd and the desperate need to extend their season.

FC Cincinnati (2nd in Eastern Conference, 65 Points)

Cincinnati enjoyed a stellar regular season, finishing just one point behind Supporters Shield winners Philadelphia Union in the combined table with 65 points. Their form heading into the playoffs has been impressive, with four wins from their final five regular-season games.

The team’s recent run is even more formidable:

• Cincinnati is currently on a three-game winning streak and is undefeated in their last seven matches.
• Their away form has been particularly impressive, going unbeaten in their last eight domestic away matches.
• Over their previous six outings, Cincinnati has scored 11 goals, finding the net in every single one of those games.

This exceptional run of form, combined with their series advantage, makes Cincinnati a confident squad heading into this crucial encounter.

Head-to-Head Statistics

The history between these Ohio rivals, known as the “Hell is Real” derby, adds an extra layer of intrigue to this playoff matchup. The overall historical record favors Columbus, but recent encounters have been more competitive.

Table: Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati Head-to-Head Overview

Data sourced from historical head-to-head records

In the ten most recent meetings between these teams, Columbus has won four games, Cincinnati three, and three matches have ended in draws. This season alone, they’ve faced each other three times, including the recent playoff game. Their July encounter saw Columbus secure a 4-2 victory at TQL Stadium, while their May match ended in a 1-1 draw.

The head-to-head data suggests that while Columbus has historical dominance, recent matches are increasingly competitive, with Cincinnati becoming more capable of securing positive results against their in-state rivals.

Key Players and Tactical Analysis

Columbus Crew’s Key Players

The Crew’s attacking threat is led by Diego Rossi, who has netted four times this season. Supporting him are Marcelo Herrera, Daniel Gazdag, and Wessam Abou Ali, each contributing three goals. In terms of creativity, Lassi Lappalainen, Max Arfsten, and Daniel Gazdag have each provided two assists.

Tactically, Columbus averages 1.4 goals from 7.4 attempts and 4.8 shots on goal per game, with an average possession rate of 53.9%. This indicates a team that prefers to control the game through possession but has struggled with converting opportunities into goals recently.

FC Cincinnati’s Key Players

Cincinnati’s attack has been spearheaded by Kevin Denkey, who has scored four goals and found the net in three consecutive MLS matches, including the Game 1 winner. Brenner da Silva has also contributed four goals, while Evander Ferreira has three goals and an impressive seven assists in the last ten games.

Statistically, Cincinnati averages 1.4 goals per game from 11.0 attempts and 6.5 shots on goal, with slightly lower possession (49.6%) than Columbus. Their defensive organization has been solid, conceding just 0.9 goals per game from 4.7 shots on goal and 9.8 attempts.

Predicted Lineups

Columbus Crew (4-3-3): Patrick Schulte (GK); Andres Herrera, Steven Moreira, Malte Amundsen, Max Arfsten; Dylan Chambost, Darlington Nagbe, Sean Zawadzki; Hugo Picard, Diego Rossi, Lassi Lappalainen

FC Cincinnati (3-5-2): Roman Celentano (GK); Teenage Hadebe, Miles Robinson, Nick Hagglund; Ender Echenique, Pavel Bucha, Evander, Samuel Gidi, Yuya Kubo; Kévin Denkey, Brenner

Match Prediction and Analysis

This playoff encounter presents a fascinating tactical battle between a Columbus team fighting for survival and a Cincinnati side looking to efficiently close out the series. Several factors point toward how this match might unfold.

Tactical Outlook

Columbus, playing at home and needing goals, will likely control possession and apply early pressure. Their 4-3-3 formation suggests an attacking intent, with width provided by the full-backs and attacking midfielders supporting the front three. However, their defensive vulnerabilities—particularly their inability to keep clean sheets—remain a significant concern against Cincinnati’s efficient attack.

Cincinnati will probably adopt a more conservative approach, content to absorb pressure and exploit counter-attacking opportunities. Their 3-5-2 formation provides defensive solidity while allowing quick transitions through their creative midfielders. With a series lead, Cincinnati can afford to be patient and wait for opportunities to strike.

Scoreline Prediction

Considering both teams’ recent form, defensive records, and attacking capabilities, our prediction is for a 1-1 draw. This outcome would see Cincinnati advance to the next round while reflecting Columbus’s determination to avoid elimination in front of their home fans.

This prediction aligns with several key factors:

• Columbus’s desperate situation likely inspires a competitive performance
• Cincinnati’s strong away form makes them difficult to beat
• Both teams have found the net in five of Columbus’s last seven matches
• Recent head-to-head matches have been closely contested

Betting Tips and Odds Analysis

For those looking to add an extra layer of excitement to this playoff clash, here’s a comprehensive breakdown of the betting markets and value opportunities.

Match Odds

Table: Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati Match Odds

Odds data from top bookmakers

Recommended Bets

1. Asian Handicap: Cincinnati +0.5 @ 1.98
   This is arguably the most valuable play for this match. With this bet, you win if Cincinnati wins or draws the match. Given their strong away form, series lead, and Columbus’s struggles, Cincinnati avoiding defeat represents excellent value.
2. Both Teams to Score: YES @ 1.45
   Both teams have found the net in five of Columbus’s last seven matches, and with Columbus desperate for goals at home while possessing a leaky defense, both teams scoring seems likely.
3. Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ N/A
   Four of Columbus’s last five matches have produced fewer than 2.5 goals, and with Cincinnati potentially adopting a cautious approach to protect their series lead, a lower-scoring affair is probable.

Player Prop Bets

• Brenner Over 0.5 Shots On Target @ 1.85: Brenner has been a consistent attacking threat for Cincinnati, making this a solid prop bet.
• Kevin Denkey Anytime Goalscorer @ 3.10: Denkey has scored in three consecutive matches, including the Game 1 winner, and offers excellent value to continue his scoring run.

Corner and Specials Market

The corner market presents an interesting opportunity with Under 9.5 Corners priced at 1.74. This aligns with the statistics showing an average of 7.00 corners in Columbus’s last five home games and six of Cincinnati’s last ten matches featuring under 9.5 corners.

Conclusion

The stage is set for a dramatic chapter in the “Hell is Real” rivalry. Columbus Crew, with their season hanging by a thread, must summon their best performance to overcome a confident FC Cincinnati side that has been among MLS’s most consistent teams all season.

While historical data favors Columbus, current form and the series situation strongly point toward Cincinnati advancing. Our predicted 1-1 draw would see Cincinnati progress while honoring Columbus’s fighting spirit in their final home game of the season.

For bettors, the most compelling value lies with Cincinnati +0.5 on the Asian Handicap alongside Both Teams to Score, reflecting the likely scenario of a closely contested match where both teams find the net but Cincinnati avoids defeat.

Regardless of the outcome, this Ohio derby promises playoff intensity, tactical intrigue, and the passion that defines MLS’s most compelling rivalries—all under the lights at Lower.com Field.