Bulgaria vs. Turkey Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips

As the 2026 World Cup qualifiers heat up in UEFA Group E, this matchup between Bulgaria and Turkey on October 11, 2025, at Vasil Levski National Stadium in Sofia carries significant weight for both sides. Bulgaria, sitting at the bottom of the group without a point, desperately needs a result to kickstart their campaign, while Turkey aims to recover from a heavy defeat and solidify their position for a top-two finish. Evidence from recent performances indicates Turkey holds the edge, but home advantage might help Bulgaria avoid a blowout.

Recent Form and Standings Group E standings show Spain leading with 6 points from two wins, followed by Georgia and Turkey on 3 points each, with Bulgaria at 0. Bulgaria’s qualifiers started poorly with 3-0 losses to Spain and Georgia, extending a winless streak that underscores their offensive woes. Turkey, meanwhile, bounced from a 3-2 win over Georgia to a shocking 6-0 loss against Spain, but their overall form remains solid with wins in friendlies and Nations League games.

Key Players For Turkey, watch Kerem Akturkoglu, who has scored twice in qualifiers already, and Arda Guler for creative flair. Bulgaria relies on forward Vladimir Nikolov to break their scoring drought, supported by experienced players like Dmitar Mitov in goal.

Prediction and Tips It seems likely Turkey will edge a 1-0 or 2-0 victory, capitalizing on Bulgaria’s vulnerabilities. For betting, consider Turkey to win at around 1.23 odds, or under 2.5 goals given recent trends. Always check sites like Oddschecker for the latest figures.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup qualification campaign in Europe is well underway, and one of the intriguing fixtures in UEFA Group E pits Bulgaria against Turkey on October 11, 2025. This match, set to take place at the iconic Vasil Levski National Stadium in Sofia, Bulgaria, represents a crucial opportunity for both nations to advance their hopes of qualifying for the tournament hosted by Canada, Mexico, and the United States. With Spain dominating the group as expected, the battle for second place—and potentially a playoff spot—could hinge on results like this one. Bulgaria, under head coach Aleksandar Dimitrov, are searching for their first points after a dismal start, while Vincenzo Montella’s Turkey side looks to rebound from a humiliating defeat and leverage their superior talent pool.

Group E Dynamics

UEFA’s qualification format for the 2026 World Cup features 12 groups, with group winners advancing directly and runners-up entering playoffs. Group E, comprising Spain, Georgia, Turkey, and Bulgaria, began its matches in September 2025 for the smaller groups. As of October 10, 2025, the standings reflect Spain’s dominance with two wins (3-0 over Bulgaria and 6-0 over Turkey), amassing 6 points and a +9 goal difference. Georgia sits second with 3 points (a 3-0 win over Bulgaria but a 2-3 loss to Turkey), tied with Turkey, who have the same points but a -5 goal difference after their thrashing by Spain. Bulgaria languishes at the bottom with 0 points and a -6 goal difference, having conceded six goals without reply in their opening fixtures.

This setup makes the Bulgaria-Turkey clash a potential six-pointer. A win for Turkey would propel them ahead of Georgia (assuming other results), while Bulgaria needs points to avoid an early exit from contention. Historically, Bulgaria has qualified for seven World Cups, with their best finish being fourth in 1994, but they haven’t appeared since 1998. Turkey’s last World Cup was in 2002, where they finished third, but they’ve been consistent in recent Euros, reaching the quarter-finals in 2024.

Bulgaria’s Recent Form: A Team in Transition

Bulgaria’s national team has endured a challenging period leading into this qualifier. In their opening Group E matches, they suffered identical 3-0 defeats: first at home to Spain on September 4, where they were overwhelmed by the European champions’ possession and finishing, and then away to Georgia on September 7, where defensive lapses allowed easy goals. These results extend a broader poor run, including a 4-0 friendly loss to Greece on June 10, a 2-2 draw with Cyprus on June 6, and Nations League relegation play-off defeats to Ireland (1-2 home and 2-1 away) in March.

The Lions’ form reads LLDLLL across all competitions, with just two goals scored in their last six outings. Offensively, they’ve been toothless, failing to score in four of those games. Defensively, they’ve conceded 14 goals in the same span, highlighting vulnerabilities at the back. Head coach Dimitrov, who took over recently, has emphasized building from a solid foundation, but the squad lacks star power compared to their golden era in the 1990s with players like Hristo Stoichkov.

Key to Bulgaria’s hopes is forward Vladimir Nikolov, who leads the line but is yet to score internationally. Midfielders like Georgi Milanov and Todor Nedelev provide experience, while Aberdeen’s Dmitar Mitov offers reliability in goal, though Svetoslav Vutsov is likely to start. The team ranks 86th in FIFA standings, a drop reflecting their struggles.

Turkey’s Recent Form: Bouncing Back from a Setback

In contrast, Turkey enters the match with a more promising outlook despite their recent hiccup. They kicked off qualifiers with a thrilling 3-2 away win over Georgia on September 4, showcasing attacking prowess through Kerem Akturkoglu’s brace. However, a 6-0 home drubbing by Spain on September 7 exposed defensive frailties, marking one of their worst defeats in recent memory. Prior to qualifiers, Turkey’s form was strong: a 2-1 friendly win over the USA on June 7, a 0-1 loss to Mexico on June 10, and Nations League victories over Hungary (3-0 away and 3-1 home) in March.

Their all-competitions form is WWWLWL, with 11 goals scored in six games. Ranked 27th by FIFA, Turkey boasts a talented squad blending youth and experience. Montella, the Italian coach, favors an attacking 4-2-3-1, which worked against Georgia but faltered against Spain’s high press. Recovery will depend on tightening defense while exploiting Bulgaria’s weaknesses.

Standout players include Inter Milan’s Hakan Calhanoglu, who captains from midfield with vision and set-piece expertise, and young stars like Real Madrid’s Arda Guler and Juventus’ Kenan Yildiz, who add flair. Akturkoglu, with 14 international goals, is a constant threat.

Head-to-Head History

The two nations have met 23 times historically, with Bulgaria claiming 7 wins, Turkey 9, and 7 draws. Bulgaria’s last victory was a 2-1 friendly in August 2005, but Turkey has won the last two encounters: 4-0 in a 2015 friendly and 2-1 in 2006. Notably, this is their first competitive meeting since the 1977 Balkan Cup, adding intrigue. In qualifiers, Turkey’s superior record in recent H2Hs (winning to nil twice) suggests they hold a psychological edge.

Key Players to Watch

Bulgaria:

• Vladimir Nikolov (Forward): The tip of the attack, Nikolov is eager for his first international goal. His club form with Levski Sofia shows promise, but he needs service from midfield.
• Georgi Milanov (Midfielder): With over 50 caps, Milanov’s creativity could unlock Turkey’s defense.
• Svetoslav Vutsov (Goalkeeper): Expected to start, his shot-stopping will be crucial against Turkey’s attackers.

Turkey:

• Kerem Akturkoglu (Forward): Already with two goals in qualifiers, his pace and finishing make him a standout. Playing for Galatasaray, he’s scored 14 for Turkey.
• Arda Guler (Midfielder): The 20-year-old Real Madrid sensation brings dribbling and vision. He’s scored twice in recent internationals and could dictate play.
• Hakan Calhanoglu (Midfielder): The captain’s leadership and passing range are vital. With Inter, he’s a set-piece specialist.

Tactical Analysis

Bulgaria is likely to deploy a defensive 4-2-3-1, focusing on counter-attacks and set pieces to exploit Turkey’s occasional lapses, as seen against Spain. Dimitrov may pack the midfield to disrupt Calhanoglu, but their lack of scoring threat could leave them vulnerable if Turkey dominates possession.

Turkey, in their preferred 4-2-3-1, will press high to force errors from Bulgaria’s backline. Montella might rotate slightly but stick with key attackers like Guler and Yildiz wide, with Akturkoglu central. Expect Turkey to control the ball (around 60% possession based on recent games) and target Bulgaria’s flanks. If Bulgaria sits deep, Turkey’s set pieces could decide it.

Potential lineups: Bulgaria (4-2-3-1): Vutsov; Minkov, Dmitrov, Bozhinov, Nedyalkov; Kraev, Tsenov; Petkov, Milanov, Kirilov; Nikolov. Turkey (4-2-3-1): Cakir; Muldur, Demiral, Bardakci, Elmali; Calhanoglu, Yuksek; Akgun, Guler, Yildiz; Akturkoglu.

Venue and Atmosphere: Vasil Levski’s Role

The Vasil Levski National Stadium, named after Bulgaria’s revolutionary hero, holds 43,230 and has hosted major events since 1953. With a running track, it’s not the most intimate, but a passionate home crowd could lift Bulgaria. Turkey fans travel well, but Sofia’s atmosphere might favor the hosts. Weather in mid-October should be mild, around 15°C, favoring a fast-paced game.

Historical Context: World Cup Legacies

Bulgaria’s 1994 semi-final run, led by Stoichkov, remains their pinnacle, but recent failures (missing since 1998) reflect a decline. Turkey’s 2002 bronze, with stars like Hakan Sukur, was a high point, but they’ve focused more on Euros lately. Both seek redemption in 2026.

Expert Opinions and Predictions

Analysts largely favor Turkey. Sports Mole predicts a 2-1 Turkey win, noting Bulgaria’s home resilience but Turkey’s quality. Football Whispers sees 0-2, emphasizing Turkey to nil given Bulgaria’s three straight losses without scoring. SportsGambler suggests 0-1, backing Bulgaria +1.75 Asian Handicap for value. Consensus: Turkey wins narrowly.

Betting Odds: Where the Value Lies

As of October 10, odds from major bookmakers like Ladbrokes and Oddschecker show Turkey as heavy favorites:

• Turkey Win: 1.23 (80% implied probability)
• Draw: 6.00 (17%)
• Bulgaria Win: 12.00 (9%)
• Both Teams to Score: Yes 2.15 / No 1.63
• Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over 1.80 / Under 1.95 Player props: Akturkoglu anytime scorer at 2.12, Guler at 2.50.

Betting Tips: Smart Plays for Punters

1. Turkey to Win to Nil (Odds: ~2.50): Bulgaria’s goal drought makes this appealing.
2. Under 2.5 Goals (Odds: 1.95): Both teams’ recent games suggest caution.
3. Akturkoglu Anytime Scorer (Odds: 2.12): His form justifies this.
4. Asian Handicap: Bulgaria +1.75 (Odds: 1.89): Covers if Turkey wins by one.
5. Corners Under 8.5 (Odds: 1.98): Low-corner trends in both sides’ matches.

Always gamble responsibly and check for updates, as odds fluctuate.

Conclusion

While Bulgaria will fight hard on home soil, Turkey’s superior squad and motivation post-Spain loss should secure the points. A 1-0 or 2-0 win seems probable, keeping Turkey in the hunt for qualification. This match underscores the competitive nature of UEFA qualifiers, where underdogs can surprise, but evidence points to Turkey prevailing.