Follow the value, or follow the money? Odds certainly are the crux of the matter in horse race betting. So much of how we look at a horse race has to do with odds, morning line, our own gambling line, and the patterns of the gambling leading up to the race, the near post time odds, and the final odds. There’s one basic conceptual error that’s common in horse betting. Players fall to the system mode – that’s, they find something which works, plus they start to play that situation by rote – in a rinse and repeat manner. The desire for an unfailing method – for consistency – is totally natural and understandable.
But – the reality of horse racing gambling is always right there on the infield tote board of the playing field reminders to you: This isn’t a static game.” You’ve got a recently updated reality coming at you every thirty seconds! – Everything you brought with you, the hours of late night handicapping, the years of test – rejecting – and testing again, all the retooling and polishing, the preconceptions and hussy myths of all types, your horses-to watch list, and on and on – all of it must be changed now by the current reality of those changing odds.
So how are we to best look at those betting odds? There are two unique camps, those horse turners and horse race bettors who want to see the odds on their horses go up, and those that want to see the odds on their horses go down. The first group are the value bettors – those that require any horse they bet to be an overlay to their very own betting line. The basic stance here’s! I have done my work – I am quite sure I am a better horse handicapper than ninety percent of the others gambling in this race, so I will take benefit of any unrealistic gambling on the portion of the audience and once they over bet 1 or 2 horses and let others rise to attractive odds – I will bet those.”.
The other group – the follow the money race bettors – admit there are other players who’re sharper than they are – professionals who load-up on the really good things. The basic stance here’s! Money makes this game go. If I look carefully and follow the money, I will be getting the best of it in the long term.” Let us say a bettor in the value group has a list of 3 horses that he believes are contending in a 10 horse field. He’s made fair odds on his top horse at 3-1 or his second horse at 5-1 or his third at 7-1. If his second ranked horse goes off at 2-1, this player wouldn’t now be intrigued in wagering on this horse.