Benfica vs. Bayer Leverkusen Prediction, Odds & Betting Tips

The UEFA Champions League returns with a captivating clash as SL Benfica welcomes Bayer 04 Leverkusen to the iconic Estádio da Luz on Wednesday, November 5, 2025. This League Phase encounter pits Portuguese giants under the guidance of legendary José Mourinho against a German side seeking their first European victory this campaign. With both teams boasting potent attacks and notable vulnerabilities, this matchup promises tactical intrigue and compelling storylines. This comprehensive preview provides expert analysis, betting insights, and predictions to navigate one of Matchday 4’s most intriguing fixtures.

Match Overview

The upcoming match in Lisbon carries significant weight for both clubs’ European ambitions this season. For Benfica, currently enjoying domestic success under Mourinho, this represents an opportunity to solidify their credentials against Bundesliga opposition. The Eagles have found their rhythm in Primeira Liga but have yet to fully translate that form to the continental stage. With the passionate home support at their back, they’ll view this as a winnable contest against familiar foes.

Bayer Leverkusen, under the guidance of Kasper Hjulmand, arrive in Portugal still searching for their first Champions League victory of the 2025/26 campaign. Their European performances have been a mix of frustration and promise, with draws against Copenhagen and PSV Eindhoven preceding a heavy defeat to Paris Saint-Germain. Despite domestic resilience that has kept them in the Bundesliga’s top-four conversation, Die Werkself desperately need a positive European result to keep their knockout stage hopes alive.

Historically, encounters between these sides have been tightly contested. Their most recent meetings in the 2014/15 Champions League group stage saw Leverkusen emerge 3-1 victors at home before playing to a stalemate in Lisbon. This established a competitive pattern that promises another close affair. Benfica’s overall record against German clubs (2 wins, 3 draws, 12 losses in 17 matches) suggests historical challenges, but Mourinho’s men will be confident they can rewrite that narrative.

Team News, Lineups, and Tactical Setup

Benfica Team News and Expected Lineup

José Mourinho has instilled defensive discipline and tactical pragmatism since taking the Benfica reins in September 2025. The Portuguese side enters this match unbeaten in nine domestic fixtures under his guidance, though European results have been more challenging with defeats to Chelsea and Newcastle.

Mourinho faces several selection dilemmas due to injuries. Key attackers Bruma (Achilles) and right-back Amar Dedić (muscular) remain unavailable, while Alexander Bah is also sidelined. These absences will test Benfica’s depth, though they retain considerable quality.

The main threat in attack comes from Greek striker Vangelis Pavlidis, who has netted 13 goals across all competitions this season. He’s supported by former Bundesliga attacker Dodi Lukebakio, who leads the team with 3 assists. Former Mainz midfielder Leandro Barreiro is pushing for a starting role but may initially feature from the bench.

Benfica’s Expected Starting XI (4-2-3-1):
Trubin; Aursnes, Silva, Otamendi (c), Dahl; Ríos, Barrenechea; Lukebakio, Sudakov, Prestianni; Pavlidis

Bayer Leverkusen Team News and Expected Lineup

Kasper Hjulmand has galvanized Leverkusen since replacing Erik ten Hag in September, overseeing 6 wins in 11 competitive matches. However, European success has proven elusive, with the team showing vulnerability in defense while maintaining attacking threat.

Leverkusen’s squad has been significantly impacted by injuries and suspension. Midfield anchor Robert Andrich is suspended following his red card against PSV Eindhoven, while Exequiel Palacios (groin) and Equi Fernández (knee) are also unavailable. This midfield crisis may force Hjulmand to deploy Ibrahim Maza in a deeper role than usual.

The standout performer remains wing-back Álex Grimaldo, who has been remarkably productive with 7 goals and 4 assists in 13 competitive appearances this season. His set-piece delivery and attacking thrust from defense will be crucial. In attack, Patrik Schick has recently returned from injury and provides a proven goal threat.

Bayer Leverkusen’s Expected Starting XI (3-4-2-1):
Flekken; Quansah, Badé, Tapsoba; Arthur, Maza, García, Grimaldo (c); Hofmann, Poku; Schick

Tactical Analysis and Key Battles

Benfica’s Strengths and Vulnerabilities

Under Mourinho, Benfica has built their success on defensive organization and efficiency in attack. Domestically, they’ve been formidable, boasting an 80% win rate across their last five matches with an impressive average of 2.6 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded per game. Their home form has been particularly dominant, with 100% win rate and no goals conceded in recent fixtures at Estádio da Luz.

However, their European performances have revealed vulnerabilities, particularly against elite attacking sides. The transition to Mourinho’s methods in continental competition remains a work in progress, with the 3-2 defeat to Qarabağ ultimately costing predecessor Bruno Lage his job. How they adapt to Leverkusen’s tactical approach will be decisive.

Leverkusen’s Approach and Challenges

Despite their midfield absences, Leverkusen possesses considerable attacking threat. Their matches have been notably high-scoring affairs, averaging 5.4 total goals per game across their last five outings. This offensive firepower, however, has come at the cost of defensive stability, with the team conceding 3.0 goals per game on average during that span.

The Grimaldo factor cannot be overstated. The Spanish wing-back has been Leverkusen’s most productive player, and his battle with Benfica’s right-sided attacker (likely Lukebakio) will be crucial. If Grimaldo can find space to deliver crosses or cut inside, he could exploit one of Benfica’s few defensive weaknesses.

Key Individual Matchups

• Vangelis Pavlidis vs. Leverkusen’s Center-Backs: The Greek striker’s movement and finishing will test a Leverkusen defense that has looked vulnerable, particularly in their 7-2 demolition by PSG.
• Álex Grimaldo vs. Benfica’s Right Flank: Grimaldo’s creativity and goal threat from wing-back could overwhelm Benfica if they fail to provide adequate defensive cover.
• Midfield Battle: With both sides missing key midfielders, the contest in the center could become fragmented, potentially favoring the home side with their greater stability.

Betting Tips and Predictions

Match Outcome and Value Picks

After analyzing team form, tactical setups, and historical data, several betting opportunities present themselves for this Champions League encounter:

• Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Yes: This appears the strongest recommendation at approximately 1.70-1.80 odds. Leverkusen’s recent matches have seen Both Teams Score in 60% of their last five games, while Benfica’s defensive record, though strong domestically, faces a potent attack. With Leverkusen conceding frequently but also scoring consistently, both nets likely will be found.
• Match Result – Draw: With odds around 3.14-3.65, the draw offers excellent value. Benfica’s home advantage and improved form are balanced by Leverkusen’s desperation for a European result. Both teams might settle for a point if the match remains level in later stages.
• Correct Score – Benfica 2-1 Bayer Leverkusen: For those seeking higher odds, a 2-1 home victory presents a compelling case at approximately 8.00-8.50 odds. This aligns with Benfica’s strong home scoring record (averaging 4.0 goals in recent home games) while acknowledging Leverkusen’s consistent goal threat.

Goalscorer Markets

• Patrik Schick to Score Anytime: The returning Czech striker offers value at around 2.40 odds. As Leverkusen’s focal point in attack, he’ll be tasked with converting the chances created by Grimaldo and supporting attackers.
• Álex Grimaldo to Score or Assist: While less conventional, the wing-back’s incredible productivity makes him a live contender in special markets. His set-piece expertise and tendency to join the attack could reward speculative bets.

Additional Betting Angles

• Over 2.5 Total Goals: With odds around 1.80-1.90, this market aligns with both teams’ recent trends. Leverkusen’s matches have averaged 5.4 total goals recently, while Benfica’s have seen 3.2 on average.
• Benfica to Win First Half: Some analysts identify value in Leverkusen winning the first half given their underestimated quality , but statistical evidence favors Benfica making a strong start at home.

Table: Summary of Recommended Bets

Odds Analysis Across Major Sportsbooks

Current betting markets slightly favor the home side, reflecting Benfica’s strong form and home advantage. Here’s how the major odds shape up across prominent bookmakers:

Table: Current Match Odds Comparison

For those considering Asian Handicap markets, Benfica -0.5 typically offers odds around 2.00-2.10, while Bayer Leverkusen +0.5 sits around 1.70-1.80. The goal line market generally positions the over/under at 2.75 goals, with slight variations between bookmakers.

Historical Context and Final Thoughts

The history between these clubs adds intrigue to this encounter. Their most recent meeting in Lisbon during the 2014/15 Champions League ended in a 0-0 draw , while Leverkusen emerged 3-1 victors in the corresponding fixture in Germany. Overall, the head-to-head record slightly favors Leverkusen with 2 wins to Benfica’s 1 in their 4 meetings, with 1 draw.

This match represents a classic tactical duel between Mourinho’s structured, pragmatic approach and Hjulmand’s more expansive philosophy. The Portuguese manager’s wealth of European experience could prove decisive in a tight contest, particularly with the passionate Benfica faithful creating an intimidating atmosphere.

For betting enthusiasts, the draw with both teams scoring presents the most balanced approach, combining reasonable odds with strong statistical support. Those seeking higher returns might consider the 2-1 correct score or Patrik Schick as an anytime goalscorer.

As the Champions League anthem echoes around a packed Estádio da Luz, all ingredients point toward an engaging, tightly-contested European encounter where moments of individual quality rather than systemic dominance will likely determine the outcome.

Disclaimer: Sports betting involves risk. Please gamble responsibly and only wager what you can afford to lose. All odds are subject to change and may differ from those shown here.