Last Updated on July 24, 2026 by Maurya
The confetti had barely settled at Madison Square Garden before the basketball world started asking the only question that matters: who wins it all next? The New York Knicks just authored one of the most improbable championship runs in league history, erasing double-digit deficits in four straight NBA Finals wins to capture their first title since 1973. And yet, oddsmakers immediately installed two other teams as the favorites for 2026-27.
That tells you everything about how loaded this upcoming season is going to be. A chaotic offseason — Giannis Antetokounmpo to Miami, Jaylen Brown to Philadelphia, Kawhi Leonard back to Toronto, and LeBron James still weighing his next home after leaving the Lakers — has completely redrawn the map. The NBA has now crowned a different champion in eight consecutive seasons, the longest such streak in league history, and there is no reason to expect the parity era to end now.
After digging through the betting markets, roster moves, and playoff evidence from the 2025-26 season, here is my ranking of the ten teams best positioned to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June 2027.
San Antonio Spurs
It feels almost cruel to put the team that just lost the Finals at No. 1, but the logic is airtight. The Spurs led for nearly three-quarters of the Finals against New York and lost four games in which they held double-digit leads. That is heartbreak, not inferiority.
Victor Wembanyama was a monster on the sport’s biggest stage — 19 rebounds and 5 blocks in the Game 5 closeout loss alone — and he just signed his rookie max extension, locking in the franchise’s future. De’Aaron Fox gives San Antonio a proven shot creator, Stephon Castle continues to develop into a two-way force, and the front office quietly retained key rotation pieces like Julian Champagnie this summer.
Sportsbooks opened San Antonio around +250 to +270, making them co-favorites for the 2027 title. Young teams that suffer painful Finals losses tend to come back meaner. Ask the 2015 Warriors’ opponents how that usually goes.
Biggest question: Can the Spurs learn to close? Blowing leads in four Finals games is a habit that has to be broken, not just outgrown.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The 2025 champions never really went away. Oklahoma City pushed the Spurs to seven games in the Western Conference Finals despite Jalen Williams missing most of the series with an injury — a detail that should terrify the rest of the league heading into 2026-27.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains arguably the best two-way guard in basketball, Chet Holmgren anchors an elite defense, and the Thunder are expected to return essentially their entire core. The front office still sits on a mountain of draft capital, meaning they can strike for an upgrade at any moment without gutting the rotation.
At roughly +250, OKC shares favorite status with San Antonio, and the betting public agrees emphatically: the Thunder have reportedly attracted around a third of all championship futures money at some books. A healthy Williams alone might be the biggest “addition” any contender makes this offseason.
Biggest question: Health and hunger. The West gauntlet is brutal, and OKC has now lost a Game 7 to the same rising rival it will likely have to beat again.
New York Knicks
Disrespecting the defending champions is a time-honored Vegas tradition, and the Knicks opened third on the odds board at around +900 despite going 16-3 through the Eastern Conference playoffs. The skepticism is understandable — comeback magic of that magnitude is hard to sustain — but let’s not overthink this.
Jalen Brunson just delivered a 45-point Finals MVP masterpiece in Game 5 and silenced every “small guards can’t lead champions” take in the process. Mike Brown proved to be the perfect steadying hand on the bench. The supporting cast of Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Josh Hart is deep, versatile, and battle-tested, and New York owned the best defensive rating of any team in the 2026 playoffs. The front office has kept the band together, re-signing key reserves and adding veteran depth like Andre Drummond on a value deal.
Biggest question: Regression. New York went 6-2 in playoff games it trailed by double digits — a historic clutch rate that no team should count on repeating.
Miami Heat
The June 22 blockbuster that sent Giannis Antetokounmpo from Milwaukee to Miami instantly turned the Heat into the East’s most fascinating team. A two-time MVP in his early thirties, still a walking 30-and-10, now paired with Bam Adebayo in one of the most physically imposing frontcourts imaginable — and dropped into a franchise whose culture was practically built for him.
Miami also kept Andrew Wiggins in the fold on an extension, giving Erik Spoelstra a proven playoff wing to deploy against elite scorers. If Tyler Herro or another perimeter creator provides enough spacing and shot-making, this roster has legitimate Finals equity. Spoelstra with Giannis is the kind of coach-star pairing that keeps opposing coordinators awake at night.
Biggest question: Shooting and fit. Giannis-Bam lineups will punish the rim but could clog the floor. The margin between “terrifying” and “cramped” may come down to Miami’s shooters.
Philadelphia 76ers
The stunner of the summer: Boston shipped Jaylen Brown to Philadelphia in exchange for Paul George and a package of draft picks. In one night, the Sixers went from a bottom-third afterthought in the futures market to one of the most-bet teams in the league, with their odds tightening dramatically inside 24 hours.
A core of Brown, Tyrese Maxey, and Joel Embiid — if, and it’s always if, Embiid’s body cooperates — has top-tier talent on paper. Brown is a Finals MVP-caliber wing entering his prime, Maxey is a certified bucket, and Philadelphia has spent aggressively to surround them. The Sixers are even considered a player in the LeBron James sweepstakes, with ownership making high-profile recruiting overtures.
Biggest question: Availability. Philadelphia’s ceiling is a conference title; its floor, if the injury bug bites again, is another lost spring.
Cleveland Cavaliers
It is easy to forget amid the Knicks’ celebration that Cleveland reached the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals before getting swept. That is still a deep, talented, 60-win-caliber roster led by Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, and Darius Garland, with continuity most contenders envy.
The Cavs have spent the summer retooling around the edges — re-signing veteran depth, working to bring James Harden’s situation to resolution, and lurking in the LeBron conversation with open roster spots. In an Eastern Conference where Boston just took a step back and Milwaukee entered a rebuild, Cleveland’s path to the Finals is clearer than it has been in years.
Biggest question: The mental hurdle. Getting swept by a rival you will have to beat again leaves scar tissue. Mobley taking another leap would change the math.
Denver Nuggets
Any list of contenders that doesn’t include Nikola Jokić is a list you can throw in the trash. The three-time MVP guarantees Denver a top-five offense and a puncher’s chance in any seven-game series, full stop.
What makes the Nuggets genuinely intriguing this summer is their aggression. Denver has reportedly expressed real interest in signing LeBron James, and the front office has kept multiple roster spots open while the market waits on his decision. Even without a superstar addition, a healthy Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon alongside Jokić is a proven championship formula — these guys have rings and know exactly what June basketball requires.
Biggest question: Depth and age in the West’s meat grinder. Surviving OKC and San Antonio in consecutive rounds requires more than Jokić brilliance.
Golden State Warriors
File this one under “high variance, enormous upside.” The Warriors are reportedly making a serious run at landing both LeBron James and Anthony Davis — a pursuit that gained real credibility when Draymond Green declined his $27.7 million player option to create flexibility. The mere speculation has sent Golden State’s title odds surging at sportsbooks.
If the coup lands, a Stephen Curry–LeBron partnership would instantly become the biggest story in sports and a legitimate championship vehicle, however briefly the window stays open. If it doesn’t, Golden State is an aging play-in team hoping Curry’s greatness can paper over the cracks one more year. Few teams have ever had a wider gap between best-case and worst-case scenarios.
Biggest question: Everything hinges on July. This ranking assumes meaningful roster upgrades; without them, slide the Warriors down five spots.
Houston Rockets
The Rockets spent last season establishing themselves as a top-tier Western threat, blending Kevin Durant’s veteran scoring with one of the youngest, most athletic supporting casts in the league. Alperen Şengün has blossomed into an All-NBA-caliber hub, Amen Thompson looks like a future superstar defender, and Ime Udoka has instilled a genuine defensive identity.
Houston fell short of the conference finals in 2026, but the developmental arrow points straight up, and the front office retains the assets to make another consolidation trade if a star shakes loose. They open the season in the global spotlight, too, with a preseason trip to Macau already on the calendar.
Biggest question: Durant’s age and the half-court offense in the playoffs. When possessions slow down in May, Houston needs a reliable closer beyond KD.
Toronto Raptors
Welcome back to the contender’s table, Toronto. The Raptors’ deal to reunite with Kawhi Leonard — sending Brandon Ingram and Gradey Dick to the Clippers — is the ultimate boom-or-bust swing. Leonard is 35, and his injury history is the stuff of legend, but he just delivered 65 games of All-NBA-level basketball, and Toronto is the one franchise where he has already proven he can carry a title run.
Pairing Leonard with Scottie Barnes and a long, switchable defensive core makes the Raptors a nightmare matchup in a wide-open East. The deal’s finalization awaited the league’s procedural review this summer, but the vision is clear: 2019 lightning, bottled twice.
Biggest question: Load management math. Toronto doesn’t need 82 games of Kawhi — it needs 20 in the spring. Can they get him there healthy?
Just Missed the Cut
The Minnesota Timberwolves (Anthony Edwards plus new arrival LaMelo Ball is an audacious experiment), the Boston Celtics (Jayson Tatum still commands respect, but the Brown trade signals a reset), and the Los Angeles Clippers (now rebuilding around Ingram post-Kawhi) all have paths back into the conversation — especially if LeBron’s decision lands in an unexpected place.
The Bottom Line
The 2026-27 championship picture is really a three-tier race: the Spurs and Thunder in a class of their own out West, the champion Knicks and the retooled East heavyweights right behind them, and a pack of star-driven wild cards whose fates rest on health, fit, and one very famous free agent’s next signature. Wherever LeBron James signs, that team jumps a tier overnight.
One prediction I’ll stand behind: the league’s streak of unique champions faces its stiffest test yet, because the two best rosters in basketball just spent an entire summer stewing over how the last season ended.
FAQs
Who is the favorite to win the 2027 NBA championship? The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder are co-favorites at most sportsbooks, each around +250, with the defending champion New York Knicks third at roughly +900.
Why aren’t the Knicks favored after winning the 2026 title? Oddsmakers view New York’s historic comeback rate — winning six of eight playoff games they trailed by double digits — as unsustainable, and the West’s top two rosters as simply more talented on paper.
What were the biggest moves of the 2026 NBA offseason? Giannis Antetokounmpo was traded to the Heat, Jaylen Brown went to the 76ers for Paul George and picks, Kawhi Leonard was dealt back to the Raptors, and LeBron James announced he is leaving the Lakers, with his destination still undecided.
When does the 2026-27 NBA season start? Training camps open in late September, with preseason play beginning October 9, 2026, when the Rockets face the Mavericks in Macau.
