Last Updated on July 22, 2026 by Maurya
The 2027 NBA Defensive Player of the Year race has a familiar shape to it: Victor Wembanyama at the top, and everyone else scrapping for second. After the San Antonio Spurs superstar became the first unanimous DPOY winner in league history last season, oddsmakers have installed him as one of the shortest award favorites we’ve ever seen this far out from opening night.
But shortest doesn’t mean unbeatable. Wembanyama’s injury history is well documented, the games-played threshold has already tripped him up once, and there’s a deep group of elite defenders — Chet Holmgren, Ausar Thompson, Scottie Barnes, and a rejuvenated Rudy Gobert among them — waiting to pounce if the door cracks open.
2027 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Odds
Here’s how the opening market looks for the 2026-27 season, based on odds posted at major sportsbooks in July 2026:
| Player | Team | Odds | Implied Probability |
| Victor Wembanyama | San Antonio Spurs | -350 | ~77.8% |
| Chet Holmgren | Oklahoma City Thunder | +1200 | ~7.7% |
| Ausar Thompson | Detroit Pistons | +2500 | ~3.8% |
| Rudy Gobert | Minnesota Timberwolves | +3000 | ~3.2% |
| Scottie Barnes | Toronto Raptors | +4000 | ~2.4% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Miami Heat | +5000 | ~2.0% |
| Bam Adebayo | Miami Heat | +5000 | ~2.0% |
| Evan Mobley | Cleveland Cavaliers | +5000 | ~2.0% |
| Amen Thompson | Houston Rockets | +8000 | ~1.2% |
| OG Anunoby | New York Knicks | +8000 | ~1.2% |
| Jaden McDaniels | Minnesota Timberwolves | +10000 | ~1.0% |
| Dyson Daniels | Atlanta Hawks | +10000 | ~1.0% |
| Jaren Jackson Jr. | Utah Jazz | +10000 | ~1.0% |
| Ivica Zubac | LA Clippers | +10000 | ~1.0% |
| Walker Kessler | Los Angeles Lakers | +10000 | ~1.0% |
Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of July 2026 and subject to change. Prediction markets tell a similar story — Kalshi currently prices Wembanyama around 77% to repeat.
A -350 price this early in the cycle is remarkable. For context, Wembanyama opened at -155 ahead of 2024-25 and -190 ahead of 2025-26. The market has stopped hedging. This is now the third consecutive season he’s opened as a minus-money favorite, and the number keeps getting steeper.
The Favorite: Victor Wembanyama (-350)
There’s a reasonable argument that no player has ever entered a season with a stronger defensive résumé at age 23. Last season, Wembanyama swept all 100 first-place votes to become the first unanimous Defensive Player of the Year ever — and the youngest winner in the award’s history, breaking through at 22 in just his third NBA season.
The numbers behind the coronation were absurd. He led the league in blocks at 3.1 per game while adding a steal and 9.5 defensive rebounds a night, anchoring a San Antonio defense that finished third in defensive rating and carried the Spurs to the No. 2 seed in the West. On/off data painted an even starker picture: San Antonio’s defense was nearly nine points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor.
At 7-foot-4 with an eight-foot wingspan, Wembanyama warps offensive game plans in a way no other player can. Teams don’t just avoid the rim against San Antonio — they redesign entire possessions around his location. That kind of gravity is what voters reward, and it’s why he could realistically rattle off four or five of these trophies before he turns 30, putting the all-time record shared by Rudy Gobert, Ben Wallace, and Dikembe Mutombo (four apiece) squarely in his sights.
The One Real Risk: Availability
If you’re looking for a reason to fade -350, it isn’t talent — it’s health and eligibility. The NBA’s 65-game minimum for major awards has been a genuine threat to Wembanyama twice now. In 2024-25, a blood clot ended his season at 46 games and took him out of a race he was dominating. Last season, he didn’t clear the eligibility bar until the final weekend of the regular season, ultimately finishing right at 65 appearances (with an assist from the NBA Cup final counting toward the total).
At -350, you’re wagering roughly 78 cents of every implied dollar on a player who has cleared the games threshold in two of three professional seasons — and only barely in one of them. The performance risk is near zero. The availability risk is not. That gap is where the rest of this market lives.
The Top Challengers
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder (+1200)
Holmgren finished a clear second in last season’s voting with 197 points, and he’s the most natural heir if Wembanyama misses time. He’s a legitimate rim-erasing seven-footer on a Thunder team that generates elite defensive ratings and win totals every year — and team success matters enormously here. No DPOY winner’s team has ever missed the playoffs, and Oklahoma City checks that box before training camp even opens. The concern is minutes and load management on a deep roster, plus the simple reality that “best defender on the best defense” hasn’t been enough to beat Wembanyama’s counting stats.
Ausar Thompson, Detroit Pistons (+2500)
Thompson is the most fascinating name on the board because he’s fighting the award’s positional history. Nineteen of the last 22 winners have been centers or power forwards; perimeter stoppers almost never break through. But Thompson is a genuine outlier — a chaos-creating wing who racks up steals, deflections, and blocks at rates no other perimeter player touches, and he finished third in last year’s voting as proof the narrative is already building. If Detroit takes another step and Thompson leads the league in steals, he becomes the Marcus Smart-style exception candidate.
Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves (+3000)
Never count out a four-time winner. Gobert finished fourth in the 2026 voting, still anchors a top-five defense in Minnesota, and voters know exactly what his impact profile looks like. The case against him is age and voter fatigue — he’d need to break Mutombo’s record as the oldest winner (34) within a couple of seasons — but as a “Wemby gets hurt” contingency, +3000 on the most decorated active defensive player is far from crazy.
Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors (+4000)
Barnes quietly put together an ironman defensive season — 80 games, heavy minutes, and a rare stat line for a forward with 1.4 steals and 1.5 blocks per game — en route to a fifth-place finish in the voting. He’s the kind of do-everything, switch-everything defender whose case grows if Toronto climbs the East standings. Volume of games played is his hidden edge: in a race where the favorite’s biggest weakness is availability, Barnes’ durability is a genuine asset.
Dark Horses Worth a Look
Evan Mobley, Cavaliers (+5000): It’s jarring to see the 2025 Defensive Player of the Year priced at 50-to-1 just two years after winning it. Mobley’s tools haven’t gone anywhere, and Cleveland remains an East contender. If voters cool on the Wembanyama story for any reason, a former winner in his prime at this number is the definition of value.
Amen Thompson, Rockets (+8000): Ausar’s twin brother received down-ballot votes last season and might be the single most versatile defender in basketball, capable of credibly guarding one through five. Houston’s defensive identity runs through him.
Walker Kessler, Lakers (+10000): A shot-blocking specialist now playing in the league’s biggest market. Narrative and visibility matter in award races, and a healthy Kessler averaging close to three blocks for a winning Lakers team would generate real buzz at a 100-to-1 price.
Dyson Daniels, Hawks (+10000): The “Great Barrier Thief” led the league in steals and deflections two seasons running and finished top-10 in voting again. The positional bias works against him, but no perimeter defender produces gaudier takeaway numbers.
How the DPOY Award Is Decided
Understanding the voting mechanics helps explain the odds. A global panel of 100 sportswriters and broadcasters submits ballots at the end of the regular season, ranking three candidates. First-place votes are worth five points, second place three, and third place one. The winner is typically announced between the end of the regular season and the NBA Finals.
Two structural factors shape every DPOY market:
- The 65-game rule. Since 2023-24, players must appear in at least 65 games (with minimum minutes requirements) to qualify for major awards. This single rule is the biggest variable in Wembanyama’s price.
- Big-man bias and team success. The award overwhelmingly favors rim protectors on good teams. History says fade guards and fade defenders on lottery teams, no matter how spectacular the highlight reels.
Prediction: Who Wins the 2027 Defensive Player of the Year?
The pick: Victor Wembanyama.
This isn’t a brave call, and the -350 price offers little standalone betting value — but as a pure prediction, there’s no honest case for anyone else while he’s healthy. He’s coming off the first unanimous DPOY season ever, he’s still improving, and voter fatigue rarely sets in after a single win. Barring another injury absence, he wins this award again and starts a run at the all-time record.
The value play: Chet Holmgren (+1200) as insurance, with a sprinkle on Evan Mobley (+5000). Wembanyama’s realistic failure mode is eligibility, not performance. If he falls short of 65 games again, the award almost certainly funnels to the reigning runner-up on a 60-win Thunder team, or to a former winner in Cleveland. A small position on both effectively hedges the one scenario the favorite can’t control.
Long shot to watch: Ausar Thompson (+2500). If any perimeter player in this generation breaks the big-man stranglehold on this trophy, it’s him.
FAQs
Who is the favorite to win the 2027 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Victor Wembanyama is the overwhelming favorite at -350, an implied probability of roughly 78%, after winning the 2026 award unanimously.
Who finished behind Wembanyama in the 2026 DPOY voting? Chet Holmgren was the runner-up, followed by Ausar Thompson, Rudy Gobert, and Scottie Barnes.
Has anyone ever won the DPOY unanimously before Wembanyama? No. His 100-of-100 first-place sweep in 2025-26 was the first unanimous result in the award’s history, and at 22 he also became its youngest winner.
Who has won the most Defensive Player of the Year awards? Rudy Gobert, Ben Wallace, and Dikembe Mutombo are tied at four apiece.
When will the 2027 winner be announced? The NBA typically announces major award winners between the end of the regular season and the Finals, so expect the 2027 DPOY reveal in May or June 2027.
