Athletic Bilbao vs. Alaves: Prediction, Betting Tips

The upcoming La Liga match between Athletic Bilbao and Deportivo Alaves is set to be an intriguing encounter. Scheduled for May 11, 2025, at the iconic San Mamés stadium, this match holds significant implications for both teams. Athletic Bilbao, currently in fourth place, aims to secure a spot in European competitions, while Alaves, struggling near the relegation zone, desperately needs points to ensure their survival in La Liga.

Team Form and Recent Performances

Athletic Bilbao

Athletic Bilbao has been in impressive form this season. Under the guidance of Ernesto Valverde, the team has accumulated 60 points from 33 matches, boasting a record of 16 wins, 12 draws, and only 5 defeats. Their home form has been particularly strong, with 10 victories, 6 draws, and just one loss at San Mamés. The Lions have shown a balanced approach, scoring 50 goals while conceding only 26.

In their recent fixtures, Athletic Bilbao has had mixed results. They secured a goalless draw against Real Sociedad and a 1-0 victory over Sevilla. However, they also faced a narrow 1-0 defeat against Real Madrid. Despite these ups and downs, their overall form remains solid, making them favorites for this match.

Deportivo Alaves

On the other hand, Deportivo Alaves has struggled throughout the season. Currently sitting in 17th place, they have managed to gather only 35 points from 34 matches. Their away form has been particularly concerning, with just 3 wins out of 17 away games. Alaves has scored 30 goals while conceding 45, highlighting their defensive vulnerabilities.

In their recent matches, Alaves has shown some resilience. They played out a 2-2 draw against Osasuna and secured a 1-0 victory over Girona. However, their inconsistency remains a significant concern as they head into this crucial fixture.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between Athletic Bilbao and Alaves favors the home side. In their last 17 encounters, Athletic Bilbao has won 6 times, while Alaves has managed 4 victories, with 7 matches ending in a draw. Athletic Bilbao has scored 16 goals in these matches, compared to Alaves’ 10 goals. This historical advantage adds to Athletic Bilbao’s confidence heading into the game.

Key Players to Watch

Athletic Bilbao

• Inaki Williams: The forward has been a consistent performer for Athletic Bilbao, known for his pace and goal-scoring ability. Williams will be crucial in breaking down Alaves’ defense.
• Oihan Sancet: The young midfielder has shown great promise this season, contributing both in attack and defense. His creativity and vision will be vital for Bilbao’s midfield dominance.
• Unai Simon: The goalkeeper has been a rock at the back, making crucial saves and maintaining clean sheets. His performance will be key in keeping Alaves at bay.

Deportivo Alaves

• Joselu: The striker has been Alaves’ main goal threat, leading the team’s scoring charts. His ability to find the back of the net will be crucial for Alaves’ chances.
• Luis Rioja: The winger’s pace and dribbling skills can trouble Bilbao’s defense. Rioja’s ability to create chances and score goals makes him a player to watch.
• Fernando Pacheco: The experienced goalkeeper will need to be at his best to keep Athletic Bilbao’s attackers at bay. His shot-stopping ability will be vital for Alaves.

Betting Tips and Analysis

Match Prediction

Given the current form and home advantage, Athletic Bilbao is expected to win this match. Their strong defensive record and attacking prowess make them favorites against a struggling Alaves side. A 2-0 victory for Athletic Bilbao seems a likely outcome.

Betting Tips

1. Home Win (Athletic Bilbao): With odds of 1.98, betting on a home win offers good value. Athletic Bilbao’s strong home record and Alaves’ poor away form make this a sensible choice.
2. Both Teams Not to Score (BTTS – NO): Considering Athletic Bilbao’s defensive solidity and Alaves’ scoring difficulties, betting on both teams not to score at odds of 1.66 is a solid option.
3. Under 2.5 Goals: There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 4 of Athletic Bilbao’s last 6 matches and 4 of Alaves’ last 4 matches. Betting on under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.57 offers a safe bet.

Betting Odds

The betting odds for this match favor Athletic Bilbao. Here are some of the key odds:

• Athletic Bilbao to Win: 1.98
• Draw: 3.24
• Alaves to Win: 4.70
• Over/Under 2.5 Goals: Over 2.55, Under 1.57

Statistical Analysis

Athletic Bilbao

• Goals Scored per Match: 1.52
• Goals Conceded per Match: 0.79
• Clean Sheets: 33%
• Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 58%

Deportivo Alaves

• Goals Scored per Match: 1.06
• Goals Conceded per Match: 1.39
• Clean Sheets: 18%
• Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 52%

Conclusion

The match between Athletic Bilbao and Deportivo Alaves promises to be an exciting encounter with significant implications for both teams. Athletic Bilbao, with their strong home form and solid defense, are favorites to secure a victory. Alaves, on the other hand, will need to overcome their inconsistencies and put up a strong fight to gain valuable points.

For bettors, a home win for Athletic Bilbao, both teams not to score, and under 2.5 goals are the recommended bets. With the odds favoring Athletic Bilbao, this match offers several betting opportunities.

As the teams prepare to clash at San Mamés, fans can expect a thrilling game filled with tactical battles and individual brilliance. Whether you’re a passionate supporter or a keen bettor, this match is one to watch.