Udinese vs. Monza: Prediction, Betting Tips

Udinese vs. Monza: Prediction, Betting Tips

Posted on May 7, 2025 by in Football
Udinese vs. Monza: Prediction, Betting Tips

As the Serie A season approaches its climax, Udinese and Monza are set to clash in a crucial encounter at the Bluenergy Stadium on May 11, 2025. This match carries significant implications for both sides, with Udinese aiming to solidify their mid-table position and Monza desperately seeking a win to keep their slim hopes of survival alive. In this comprehensive article, we will delve into the prediction, betting tips, analysis, and statistics for this intriguing fixture.

Team Form and Recent Performances

Udinese: Seeking Stability in Mid-Table

Udinese enters this fixture with a sense of cautious optimism, having secured a valuable 2-1 away victory against Cagliari in their previous outing. This result has helped them maintain their position in the relative safety of mid-table, with 44 points from 35 matches. Their overall record of 12 wins, 8 draws, and 15 defeats showcases a season of ups and downs, but their home form has been somewhat more encouraging, boasting 7 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses at the Bluenergy Stadium.

Under the guidance of coach Kosta Runjaic, Udinese has shown flashes of potential throughout the campaign. Runjaic’s tactical approach, which often emphasizes a solid defensive structure combined with quick counter-attacks, has yielded mixed results but has generally proven effective at home.

Monza: Fighting for Survival

On the other hand, Monza finds itself languishing at the bottom of the table with just 15 points from 35 matches. Their recent form has been dismal, with a heavy 4-0 home defeat to Atalanta Bergamo further compounding their misery. Monza’s struggles in front of goal and defensive frailties have been evident throughout the season, making their task of avoiding relegation increasingly challenging.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between Udinese and Monza shows that in their previous six matches, Udinese has won twice, Monza once, and three matches have ended in a draw. Udinese has scored nine goals, while Monza has netted eight in these encounters. This suggests that matches between these two sides are often closely contested.

Key Players to Watch

Udinese

  • Thomas Kristensen: The Danish defender has been a rock at the back for Udinese, providing stability and leadership in defense.
  • Sandi Lovric: The Slovenian midfielder has been instrumental in Udinese’s midfield, contributing both defensively and offensively.
  • Keinan Davis: The English forward has been Udinese’s main attacking threat, with his physical presence and goal-scoring ability.

Monza

  • Gianluca Caprari: The Italian forward has been Monza’s standout performer, leading the line with his creativity and goal-scoring prowess.
  • Gaetano Castrovilli: The midfielder’s vision and passing ability have been crucial for Monza, despite their struggles this season.
  • Stefano Turati: The young goalkeeper has shown promise, making several crucial saves to keep Monza in games.

Betting Tips and Odds

Given the stark contrast in form and league positions between the two sides, backing Udinese seems the most prudent choice. The odds reflect this sentiment, with 1win offering 1.56 for a Udinese victory, 4.43 for a draw, and 6.80 for an AC Monza upset. Here are some betting tips for this match:

  1. Total Goals Under 2.5: There have been under 2.5 goals scored in three of Udinese’s last five matches and three of Monza’s last five matches. This suggests a low-scoring affair is likely.
  2. Double Chance 12: Udinese has won or lost four of their last five matches, while Monza has won or lost all of their last five matches. This bet covers both a Udinese win and a Monza win, providing some security.
  3. Both Teams to Score – No: Considering Monza’s struggles in front of goal this season, coupled with Udinese’s relatively solid defensive record at home, the “No” option in the “Both Teams to Score” market appears attractive.

Statistical Analysis

Goals Scored and Conceded

Udinese has scored an average of 1.09 goals per match this season, while conceding 1.40 goals per match. At home, they have been slightly better, scoring 1.12 goals per match and conceding 1.29 goals per match. Monza, on the other hand, has struggled both offensively and defensively, scoring just 0.74 goals per match and conceding 1.74 goals per match .

Clean Sheets and Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Udinese has kept clean sheets in 26% of their matches this season, while Monza has managed just 9%. The BTTS (Both Teams to Score) percentage for Udinese is 51%, compared to Monza’s 53%. This indicates that while both teams have a tendency to concede, Monza’s defensive record is significantly worse.

Expected Goals (xG) and Expected Goals Against (xGA)

Udinese’s expected goals (xG) per match is 1.33, while their expected goals against (xGA) is 1.44. Monza’s xG is 1.06, and their xGA is 1.61. These statistics highlight Udinese’s slightly better attacking and defensive capabilities compared to Monza.

Tactical Analysis

Udinese’s Tactical Approach

Udinese’s tactical approach under Kosta Runjaic has been characterized by a solid defensive structure and quick counter-attacks . They often set up in a 3-5-1-1 formation, with a focus on maintaining defensive solidity and exploiting spaces on the counter. The wing-backs play a crucial role in providing width and supporting both defense and attack.

Monza’s Tactical Struggles

Monza has struggled tactically this season, with their defensive frailties and lack of cutting edge in attack being major issues. They typically line up in a 3-5-2 formation, but their inability to convert chances and defensive lapses have cost them dearly. Coach Raffaele Palladino will need to find a way to tighten up defensively and improve their attacking output if they are to have any chance of survival.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the upcoming clash between Udinese and Monza promises to be an intriguing encounter with significant implications for both sides. Udinese will be looking to solidify their mid-table position, while Monza desperately needs a win to keep their survival hopes alive. Based on current form, head-to-head record, and statistical analysis, Udinese appears to be the stronger side and is favored to secure a victory.

For bettors, backing Udinese to win, considering the under 2.5 goals market, and opting for the “No” option in the “Both Teams to Score” market are prudent choices. As always, it’s essential to gamble responsibly and consider all factors before placing any bets.

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