Alaves vs. Atletico Madrid: Prediction, Betting Tips

As the La Liga season approaches its climax, the upcoming clash between Deportivo Alaves and Atletico Madrid promises to be a thrilling encounter. Scheduled for May 3, 2025, at the Estadio de Mendizorroza, this match holds significant implications for both teams. Alaves is fighting to avoid relegation, while Atletico Madrid aims to secure their spot in the Champions League. In this article, we will delve into the prediction, betting tips, analysis, and statistics for this crucial fixture.

Team Form and Recent Performances

Deportivo Alaves

Deportivo Alaves has had a challenging season, currently sitting 17th in the league table with 34 points. Their recent form has been a mixed bag, with two wins, one draw, and two defeats in their last five matches across all competitions. Despite their struggles, Alaves has shown resilience, particularly in their recent 1-0 victory over Real Sociedad. Under the guidance of coach Eduardo Coudet, Alaves will be looking to capitalize on their home advantage and secure a vital win.

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid, on the other hand, has had a relatively strong season, currently occupying the 3rd position in the league table with 66 points. Diego Simeone’s side has managed three victories in their last four matches, including a convincing 3-0 win against Rayo Vallecano. However, their recent exit from the UEFA Champions League and Copa del Rey has left them with little to play for in the remaining league fixtures. Nevertheless, Atletico will be keen to finish the season on a high note and secure their Champions League spot.

Head-to-Head Record

The head-to-head record between Alaves and Atletico Madrid heavily favors the latter. In their last 15 matches, Atletico Madrid has won 10 times, while Alaves has managed only two victories, with three matches ending in a draw. Atletico has also outscored Alaves 24 to 10 in these encounters. This historical dominance gives Atletico Madrid a psychological edge heading into this fixture.

Key Players to Watch

Deportivo Alaves

• Nahuel Tenaglia: The right-back has been instrumental in Alaves’ recent defensive solidity and even scored the winning goal against Real Sociedad.
• Kike Garcia: The forward will be crucial in leading Alaves’ attack and finding the back of the net against a strong Atletico defense.

Atletico Madrid

• Alexander Sorloth: The Norwegian striker has been in fine form, scoring crucial goals for Atletico in recent matches.
• Jan Oblak: The experienced goalkeeper will be key in maintaining Atletico’s defensive stability and keeping a clean sheet.

Betting Tips and Analysis

Match Prediction

Given the current form and historical dominance, Atletico Madrid is the favorite to win this match. However, Alaves’ recent improvement and home advantage cannot be overlooked. A draw or a narrow win for Atletico seems the most likely outcome.

Betting Tips

1. Double Chance – Alaves to Win or Draw: Considering Alaves’ recent form and home advantage, betting on a double chance for Alaves to win or draw offers good value.
2. Both Teams to Score – No: Atletico’s solid defense and Alaves’ struggles in front of goal make this a likely outcome.
3. Under 2.5 Goals: Given the defensive strengths of both teams, a low-scoring match is expected.

Betting Odds

• Alaves Win: 3.60
• Atletico Madrid Win: 2.10
• Draw: 3.20
• Over 2.5 Goals: 2.50
• Under 2.5 Goals: 1.53

Statistical Analysis

Goals and Scoring Patterns

• Alaves: Averaging 1.06 goals per match while conceding 1.44.
• Atletico Madrid: Averaging 1.66 goals per match while conceding 0.84.

Clean Sheets and Defensive Records

• Alaves: 20% clean sheets in their last 15 matches against Atletico.
• Atletico Madrid: 40% clean sheets in their last 15 matches against Alaves.

Conclusion

The clash between Deportivo Alaves and Atletico Madrid is set to be an intriguing battle with significant stakes for both teams. While Atletico Madrid holds the upper hand historically and in terms of current form, Alaves’ recent resurgence and home advantage could make this a closely contested match. Bettors should consider the double chance for Alaves and the under 2.5 goals market for potentially profitable bets. As always, it’s essential to gamble responsibly and enjoy the beautiful game.